On the Performance of a Real‐Time Electron Radiation Belt Specification Model
Abstract Maintaining accurate real‐time hindcast and forecast specification of the radiation environment is essential for operators to monitor and mitigate the effects of hazardous radiation on satellite components. The Radiation Belt Forecasting Model and Framework (RBFMF) provides real‐time foreca...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW003950 |
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| author | Frances Staples Adam Kellerman Janet Green |
| author_facet | Frances Staples Adam Kellerman Janet Green |
| author_sort | Frances Staples |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Maintaining accurate real‐time hindcast and forecast specification of the radiation environment is essential for operators to monitor and mitigate the effects of hazardous radiation on satellite components. The Radiation Belt Forecasting Model and Framework (RBFMF) provides real‐time forecasts and hindcasts of the electron radiation belt environment, which are used as inputs for the Satellite Charging Assessment Tool. We evaluated the long‐term statistical error and bias of the RBFMF by comparing the 10‐hr hindcast of electron phase space densities (PSD) to a multi‐mission data set of PSD observations. We found that, between the years 2016–2018, the RBFMF reproduced the radiation belt environment to within a factor of 1.5. While the error and bias of assimilated observations were found to influence the error and bias of the hindcast, data assimilation resulted in more accurate specification of the radiation belt state than real‐time Van Allen Probe observations alone. Furthermore, when real‐time Van Allen Probe observations were no longer available, the hindcast errors increased by an order of magnitude. This highlights two needs; (a) the development of physics‐based modeling incorporated into this framework, and (b) the need for real‐time observations which span the entire outer radiation belt. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-65eb29587c504c52a7ff2fda9e90fc48 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-65eb29587c504c52a7ff2fda9e90fc482025-02-01T08:10:33ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902024-12-012212n/an/a10.1029/2024SW003950On the Performance of a Real‐Time Electron Radiation Belt Specification ModelFrances Staples0Adam Kellerman1Janet Green2Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences University of California Los Angeles CA USADepartment of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences University of California Los Angeles CA USASpace Hazards Applications LLC Arapahoe St Golden CO USAAbstract Maintaining accurate real‐time hindcast and forecast specification of the radiation environment is essential for operators to monitor and mitigate the effects of hazardous radiation on satellite components. The Radiation Belt Forecasting Model and Framework (RBFMF) provides real‐time forecasts and hindcasts of the electron radiation belt environment, which are used as inputs for the Satellite Charging Assessment Tool. We evaluated the long‐term statistical error and bias of the RBFMF by comparing the 10‐hr hindcast of electron phase space densities (PSD) to a multi‐mission data set of PSD observations. We found that, between the years 2016–2018, the RBFMF reproduced the radiation belt environment to within a factor of 1.5. While the error and bias of assimilated observations were found to influence the error and bias of the hindcast, data assimilation resulted in more accurate specification of the radiation belt state than real‐time Van Allen Probe observations alone. Furthermore, when real‐time Van Allen Probe observations were no longer available, the hindcast errors increased by an order of magnitude. This highlights two needs; (a) the development of physics‐based modeling incorporated into this framework, and (b) the need for real‐time observations which span the entire outer radiation belt.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW003950radiation beltforecasthindcastdata assimilationdiffusion simulationvalidation |
| spellingShingle | Frances Staples Adam Kellerman Janet Green On the Performance of a Real‐Time Electron Radiation Belt Specification Model Space Weather radiation belt forecast hindcast data assimilation diffusion simulation validation |
| title | On the Performance of a Real‐Time Electron Radiation Belt Specification Model |
| title_full | On the Performance of a Real‐Time Electron Radiation Belt Specification Model |
| title_fullStr | On the Performance of a Real‐Time Electron Radiation Belt Specification Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | On the Performance of a Real‐Time Electron Radiation Belt Specification Model |
| title_short | On the Performance of a Real‐Time Electron Radiation Belt Specification Model |
| title_sort | on the performance of a real time electron radiation belt specification model |
| topic | radiation belt forecast hindcast data assimilation diffusion simulation validation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW003950 |
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