Predicting risk on cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease based on a physical activity cohort: Results from APAC study
Abstract Commonly used prediction models have been primarily constructed without taking physical activity into account. Using the Kailuan physical activity cohorts from Asymptomatic Polyvascular Abnormalities in Community (APAC) study, we developed a 9‐year cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease...
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Wiley
2023-04-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/mco2.220 |
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| author | Juan Zhao Ye Yu Xiaolan Zhu Yuling Xie Songwei Ai H. Immo Lehmann Xuan Deng Feifei Hu Guoping Li Yong Zhou Junjie Xiao |
| author_facet | Juan Zhao Ye Yu Xiaolan Zhu Yuling Xie Songwei Ai H. Immo Lehmann Xuan Deng Feifei Hu Guoping Li Yong Zhou Junjie Xiao |
| author_sort | Juan Zhao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Commonly used prediction models have been primarily constructed without taking physical activity into account. Using the Kailuan physical activity cohorts from Asymptomatic Polyvascular Abnormalities in Community (APAC) study, we developed a 9‐year cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction equation. Participants in this study were included from APAC cohort, which included 5440 participants from the Kailuan cohort in China. Cox proportional hazard regression model was applied to construct sex‐specific risk prediction equations for the physical activity cohort (PA equation). Proposed equations were compared with the 10‐year risk prediction model, which is developed for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in Chinese cohorts (China‐PAR equation). C statistics of PA equations were 0.755 (95% confidence interval, 0.750–0.758) for men and 0.801 (95% confidence interval, 0.790–0.813) for women. The estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curves in the validation set shows that the PA equations perform as good as the China‐PAR. From calibration among four categories of predicted risks, the predicted risk rates by PA equations were almost identical to the Kaplan–Meier observed rates. Therefore, our developed sex‐specific PA equations have effective performance for predicting CVD for physically active cohorts in the physical activity cohort in Kailuan. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-64eb523e84bb441ab61494993d74dde0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2688-2663 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | MedComm |
| spelling | doaj-art-64eb523e84bb441ab61494993d74dde02025-01-24T05:36:29ZengWileyMedComm2688-26632023-04-0142n/an/a10.1002/mco2.220Predicting risk on cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease based on a physical activity cohort: Results from APAC studyJuan Zhao0Ye Yu1Xiaolan Zhu2Yuling Xie3Songwei Ai4H. Immo Lehmann5Xuan Deng6Feifei Hu7Guoping Li8Yong Zhou9Junjie Xiao10Institute of Geriatrics (Shanghai University), Affiliated Nantong Hospital of Shanghai University (The Sixth People's Hospital of Nantong), School of Medicine Shanghai University Nantong ChinaClinical Research Institute, Shanghai General Hospital Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine Shanghai ChinaInstitute of Geriatrics (Shanghai University), Affiliated Nantong Hospital of Shanghai University (The Sixth People's Hospital of Nantong), School of Medicine Shanghai University Nantong ChinaInstitute of Geriatrics (Shanghai University), Affiliated Nantong Hospital of Shanghai University (The Sixth People's Hospital of Nantong), School of Medicine Shanghai University Nantong ChinaInstitute of Geriatrics (Shanghai University), Affiliated Nantong Hospital of Shanghai University (The Sixth People's Hospital of Nantong), School of Medicine Shanghai University Nantong ChinaCardiovascular Division of the Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School Boston Massachusetts USAClinical Research Institute, Shanghai General Hospital Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine Shanghai ChinaClinical Research Institute, Shanghai General Hospital Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine Shanghai ChinaCardiovascular Division of the Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School Boston Massachusetts USAClinical Research Institute, Shanghai General Hospital Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine Shanghai ChinaInstitute of Geriatrics (Shanghai University), Affiliated Nantong Hospital of Shanghai University (The Sixth People's Hospital of Nantong), School of Medicine Shanghai University Nantong ChinaAbstract Commonly used prediction models have been primarily constructed without taking physical activity into account. Using the Kailuan physical activity cohorts from Asymptomatic Polyvascular Abnormalities in Community (APAC) study, we developed a 9‐year cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction equation. Participants in this study were included from APAC cohort, which included 5440 participants from the Kailuan cohort in China. Cox proportional hazard regression model was applied to construct sex‐specific risk prediction equations for the physical activity cohort (PA equation). Proposed equations were compared with the 10‐year risk prediction model, which is developed for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in Chinese cohorts (China‐PAR equation). C statistics of PA equations were 0.755 (95% confidence interval, 0.750–0.758) for men and 0.801 (95% confidence interval, 0.790–0.813) for women. The estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curves in the validation set shows that the PA equations perform as good as the China‐PAR. From calibration among four categories of predicted risks, the predicted risk rates by PA equations were almost identical to the Kaplan–Meier observed rates. Therefore, our developed sex‐specific PA equations have effective performance for predicting CVD for physically active cohorts in the physical activity cohort in Kailuan.https://doi.org/10.1002/mco2.220cardiovascular diseasecerebrovascular diseasecohort studycox proportional hazard regressionphysical activity |
| spellingShingle | Juan Zhao Ye Yu Xiaolan Zhu Yuling Xie Songwei Ai H. Immo Lehmann Xuan Deng Feifei Hu Guoping Li Yong Zhou Junjie Xiao Predicting risk on cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease based on a physical activity cohort: Results from APAC study MedComm cardiovascular disease cerebrovascular disease cohort study cox proportional hazard regression physical activity |
| title | Predicting risk on cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease based on a physical activity cohort: Results from APAC study |
| title_full | Predicting risk on cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease based on a physical activity cohort: Results from APAC study |
| title_fullStr | Predicting risk on cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease based on a physical activity cohort: Results from APAC study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting risk on cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease based on a physical activity cohort: Results from APAC study |
| title_short | Predicting risk on cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease based on a physical activity cohort: Results from APAC study |
| title_sort | predicting risk on cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease based on a physical activity cohort results from apac study |
| topic | cardiovascular disease cerebrovascular disease cohort study cox proportional hazard regression physical activity |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/mco2.220 |
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