THE DYNAMIC INTERACTIONS BETWEEN US AND EUROPEAN ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTIES AND SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN TURKEY - ABD VE AVRUPA’NIN EKONOMİK POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ İLE TÜRKİYE'DE SEÇİLMİŞ MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLER ARASINDAKİ DİNAMİK ETKİLEŞİMLERİN ANALİZİ
The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of economic policy uncertainties of EU (EPUEU) and US (EPUUS) on selected macroeconomic variables of Turkey, such as interest rate, stock prices, consumer price index, industrial production index, exchange rate by using ARDL bounds testing approach...
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Mehmet Akif Ersoy University
2020-07-01
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| Series: | Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi |
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| Online Access: | https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1216480 |
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| author | Merve Kocaman Mustafa Özer |
| author_facet | Merve Kocaman Mustafa Özer |
| author_sort | Merve Kocaman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of economic policy uncertainties of EU (EPUEU) and US (EPUUS) on selected macroeconomic variables of Turkey, such as interest rate, stock prices, consumer price index, industrial production index, exchange rate by using ARDL bounds testing approach and monthly data over the period of 2002 January to 2015 December. According to results of the study, an increase in EPUUS causes a statistically significant decrease in industrial production in the long-run and an increase in consumer prices. On the other hand, an increase in EPUEU leads to increase in industrial production. Furthermore, the results show that no matter what the source of the policy uncertainties are, financial indicators of the Turkish economy are not significantly affected by changes in economic policy uncertainties of both EU and US. The results of the Granger causality tests indicate presence of both short-run and long-run causal relations between variables, particularly short-run causalities from EPUEU and EPUUS to industrial production reinforcing the results of ARDL estimates. Thus, Turkish policymakers should take into account of rising EU and US policy uncertainties when forming economic policies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-63008341962c4b2b9fa583f2533fdeb8 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2149-1658 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | Mehmet Akif Ersoy University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi |
| spelling | doaj-art-63008341962c4b2b9fa583f2533fdeb82025-01-27T14:11:26ZengMehmet Akif Ersoy UniversityMehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi2149-16582020-07-017235437210.30798/makuiibf.597309273THE DYNAMIC INTERACTIONS BETWEEN US AND EUROPEAN ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTIES AND SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN TURKEY - ABD VE AVRUPA’NIN EKONOMİK POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ İLE TÜRKİYE'DE SEÇİLMİŞ MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLER ARASINDAKİ DİNAMİK ETKİLEŞİMLERİN ANALİZİMerve Kocaman0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5708-6242Mustafa Özer1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9852-8441ANADOLU ÜNİVERSİTESİANADOLU ÜNİVERSİTESİThe purpose of this study is to examine the effects of economic policy uncertainties of EU (EPUEU) and US (EPUUS) on selected macroeconomic variables of Turkey, such as interest rate, stock prices, consumer price index, industrial production index, exchange rate by using ARDL bounds testing approach and monthly data over the period of 2002 January to 2015 December. According to results of the study, an increase in EPUUS causes a statistically significant decrease in industrial production in the long-run and an increase in consumer prices. On the other hand, an increase in EPUEU leads to increase in industrial production. Furthermore, the results show that no matter what the source of the policy uncertainties are, financial indicators of the Turkish economy are not significantly affected by changes in economic policy uncertainties of both EU and US. The results of the Granger causality tests indicate presence of both short-run and long-run causal relations between variables, particularly short-run causalities from EPUEU and EPUUS to industrial production reinforcing the results of ARDL estimates. Thus, Turkish policymakers should take into account of rising EU and US policy uncertainties when forming economic policies.https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1216480economic policy uncertaintymacroeconomic performancetime series analysisekonomi politika belirsizliğimakroekonomik performanszaman serisi analizi |
| spellingShingle | Merve Kocaman Mustafa Özer THE DYNAMIC INTERACTIONS BETWEEN US AND EUROPEAN ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTIES AND SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN TURKEY - ABD VE AVRUPA’NIN EKONOMİK POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ İLE TÜRKİYE'DE SEÇİLMİŞ MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLER ARASINDAKİ DİNAMİK ETKİLEŞİMLERİN ANALİZİ Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi economic policy uncertainty macroeconomic performance time series analysis ekonomi politika belirsizliği makroekonomik performans zaman serisi analizi |
| title | THE DYNAMIC INTERACTIONS BETWEEN US AND EUROPEAN ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTIES AND SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN TURKEY - ABD VE AVRUPA’NIN EKONOMİK POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ İLE TÜRKİYE'DE SEÇİLMİŞ MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLER ARASINDAKİ DİNAMİK ETKİLEŞİMLERİN ANALİZİ |
| title_full | THE DYNAMIC INTERACTIONS BETWEEN US AND EUROPEAN ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTIES AND SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN TURKEY - ABD VE AVRUPA’NIN EKONOMİK POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ İLE TÜRKİYE'DE SEÇİLMİŞ MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLER ARASINDAKİ DİNAMİK ETKİLEŞİMLERİN ANALİZİ |
| title_fullStr | THE DYNAMIC INTERACTIONS BETWEEN US AND EUROPEAN ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTIES AND SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN TURKEY - ABD VE AVRUPA’NIN EKONOMİK POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ İLE TÜRKİYE'DE SEÇİLMİŞ MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLER ARASINDAKİ DİNAMİK ETKİLEŞİMLERİN ANALİZİ |
| title_full_unstemmed | THE DYNAMIC INTERACTIONS BETWEEN US AND EUROPEAN ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTIES AND SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN TURKEY - ABD VE AVRUPA’NIN EKONOMİK POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ İLE TÜRKİYE'DE SEÇİLMİŞ MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLER ARASINDAKİ DİNAMİK ETKİLEŞİMLERİN ANALİZİ |
| title_short | THE DYNAMIC INTERACTIONS BETWEEN US AND EUROPEAN ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTIES AND SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN TURKEY - ABD VE AVRUPA’NIN EKONOMİK POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ İLE TÜRKİYE'DE SEÇİLMİŞ MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLER ARASINDAKİ DİNAMİK ETKİLEŞİMLERİN ANALİZİ |
| title_sort | dynamic interactions between us and european economic policy uncertainties and selected macroeconomic variables in turkey abd ve avrupa nin ekonomik politika belirsizlikleri ile turkiye de secilmis makroekonomik degiskenler arasindaki dinamik etkilesimlerin analizi |
| topic | economic policy uncertainty macroeconomic performance time series analysis ekonomi politika belirsizliği makroekonomik performans zaman serisi analizi |
| url | https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1216480 |
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