Attributing heatwave-related mortality to climate change: a case study of the 2009 Victorian heatwave in Australia
Determining the influence of climate change behind human mortality is of interest to many sectors. However, it is a fledgling field where studies have centered on northern hemisphere events. This study presents the first attribution assessment on the mortality burden of an Australian heatwave to cli...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research: Climate |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ada8cd |
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| author | Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick Linda Selvey Philipp Aglas-Leitner Nina Lansbury Samuel Hundessa Dáithí Stone Kristie L Ebi Nicholas John Osborne |
| author_facet | Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick Linda Selvey Philipp Aglas-Leitner Nina Lansbury Samuel Hundessa Dáithí Stone Kristie L Ebi Nicholas John Osborne |
| author_sort | Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Determining the influence of climate change behind human mortality is of interest to many sectors. However, it is a fledgling field where studies have centered on northern hemisphere events. This study presents the first attribution assessment on the mortality burden of an Australian heatwave to climate change. We focus on excess heatwave- (defined by climatological definitions) related mortality in the state of Victoria that occurred during the 2009 southeast Australian heatwave. An epidemiological model derived from well-established methods defining the relationship between observed heatwave temperatures (95th, 97.5th and 99th percentiles) and mortality is applied to heatwaves in simulations that either include or omit anthropogenic climate forcing from eight climate models. Across all models, the frequency of a heatwave-related mortality event similar to the 2009 Victorian event has, on average, doubled under factual conditions relative to counterfactual conditions. Moreover, on average, around 6 ± 3–4 extra individuals out of 31 (an increase of 20%) died as a direct result of extreme temperatures due to anthropogenic influence on the climate. Despite the small total number of attributable deaths as per the epidemiological model, six out of eight climate models predicted a statistically significant anthropogenic influence, indicating that climate change increased the heatwave-related mortality impact of this event. We make clear that, in line with previous Australian-based studies, the focus on mortality relative to the top 5% of temperatures logically infers a smaller mortality signal relative to the top 50% of temperatures, as would be defined by a more general temperature-related epidemiological model. As research, planning and policy interest in the role of climate change behind the burden health—and other adverse impacts of weather and climate extremes—continues to grow, it is vital that interdisciplinary collaborations are nurtured, so that the resulting science is of high-quality rigour, and policy relevance. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-60ba3bc6f8ad4bf2beea4f200d4e6657 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2752-5295 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research: Climate |
| spelling | doaj-art-60ba3bc6f8ad4bf2beea4f200d4e66572025-01-28T13:42:54ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research: Climate2752-52952025-01-014101500410.1088/2752-5295/ada8cdAttributing heatwave-related mortality to climate change: a case study of the 2009 Victorian heatwave in AustraliaSarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9443-4915Linda Selvey1Philipp Aglas-Leitner2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8743-0921Nina Lansbury3Samuel Hundessa4Dáithí Stone5Kristie L Ebi6https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4746-8236Nicholas John Osborne7https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6700-2284Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University , Canberra, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, The Australian National University , Canberra, AustraliaSchool of Public Health, The University of Queensland , Brisbane, AustraliaClimate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney , Sydney, Australia; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , Potsdam, Germany; Freie Universität Berlin , Berlin, GermanySchool of Public Health, The University of Queensland , Brisbane, AustraliaSchool of Public Health, The University of Queensland , Brisbane, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research (CARE) Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine (SPHPM), Monash University , Melbourne, AustraliaNIWA , Wellington, New ZealandCenter for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington , Seattle, WA, United States of AmericaSchool of Public Health, The University of Queensland , Brisbane, Australia; European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter , Truro, UK TR1 3HD, United Kingdom; School of Population Health, University of New South Wales , Sydney, AustraliaDetermining the influence of climate change behind human mortality is of interest to many sectors. However, it is a fledgling field where studies have centered on northern hemisphere events. This study presents the first attribution assessment on the mortality burden of an Australian heatwave to climate change. We focus on excess heatwave- (defined by climatological definitions) related mortality in the state of Victoria that occurred during the 2009 southeast Australian heatwave. An epidemiological model derived from well-established methods defining the relationship between observed heatwave temperatures (95th, 97.5th and 99th percentiles) and mortality is applied to heatwaves in simulations that either include or omit anthropogenic climate forcing from eight climate models. Across all models, the frequency of a heatwave-related mortality event similar to the 2009 Victorian event has, on average, doubled under factual conditions relative to counterfactual conditions. Moreover, on average, around 6 ± 3–4 extra individuals out of 31 (an increase of 20%) died as a direct result of extreme temperatures due to anthropogenic influence on the climate. Despite the small total number of attributable deaths as per the epidemiological model, six out of eight climate models predicted a statistically significant anthropogenic influence, indicating that climate change increased the heatwave-related mortality impact of this event. We make clear that, in line with previous Australian-based studies, the focus on mortality relative to the top 5% of temperatures logically infers a smaller mortality signal relative to the top 50% of temperatures, as would be defined by a more general temperature-related epidemiological model. As research, planning and policy interest in the role of climate change behind the burden health—and other adverse impacts of weather and climate extremes—continues to grow, it is vital that interdisciplinary collaborations are nurtured, so that the resulting science is of high-quality rigour, and policy relevance.https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ada8cdmortalityheatwaveimpact attributionclimate changehuman healthAustralia |
| spellingShingle | Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick Linda Selvey Philipp Aglas-Leitner Nina Lansbury Samuel Hundessa Dáithí Stone Kristie L Ebi Nicholas John Osborne Attributing heatwave-related mortality to climate change: a case study of the 2009 Victorian heatwave in Australia Environmental Research: Climate mortality heatwave impact attribution climate change human health Australia |
| title | Attributing heatwave-related mortality to climate change: a case study of the 2009 Victorian heatwave in Australia |
| title_full | Attributing heatwave-related mortality to climate change: a case study of the 2009 Victorian heatwave in Australia |
| title_fullStr | Attributing heatwave-related mortality to climate change: a case study of the 2009 Victorian heatwave in Australia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Attributing heatwave-related mortality to climate change: a case study of the 2009 Victorian heatwave in Australia |
| title_short | Attributing heatwave-related mortality to climate change: a case study of the 2009 Victorian heatwave in Australia |
| title_sort | attributing heatwave related mortality to climate change a case study of the 2009 victorian heatwave in australia |
| topic | mortality heatwave impact attribution climate change human health Australia |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ada8cd |
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