Possible Influence of Volcanic Activity on the Decadal Potential Predictability of the Natural Variability in Near-Term Climate Predictions
Initialization based on data assimilations using historical observations possibly improves near-term climate predictions. Significant volcanic activity in the future is unpredictable and not assumed in future climate predictions. To examine the possible influence of unpredictable future volcanic act...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2010-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2010/657318 |
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| _version_ | 1832568077713145856 |
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| author | Hideo Shiogama Seita Emori Takashi Mochizuki Sayaka Yasunaka Tokuta Yokohata Masayoshi Ishii Toru Nozawa Masahide Kimoto |
| author_facet | Hideo Shiogama Seita Emori Takashi Mochizuki Sayaka Yasunaka Tokuta Yokohata Masayoshi Ishii Toru Nozawa Masahide Kimoto |
| author_sort | Hideo Shiogama |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Initialization based on data assimilations using historical observations possibly improves near-term climate predictions. Significant volcanic activity in the future is unpredictable and not assumed in future climate predictions. To examine the possible influence of unpredictable future volcanic activity on the decadal potential predictability of the natural variability, we performed a 2006–2035 climate prediction experiment with the assumption that the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption would take place again in 2010. The Pinatubo forcing induced not only significant cooling responses but also considerable noises in the natural variability. The errors due to the Pinatubo forcing grew faster than that arising from imperfect knowledge of the observed state, leading to a rapid reduction of the decadal potential predictability of the natural variability. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5db6103952694f149b42a1cb815e8df4 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2010-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-5db6103952694f149b42a1cb815e8df42025-02-03T00:59:48ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172010-01-01201010.1155/2010/657318657318Possible Influence of Volcanic Activity on the Decadal Potential Predictability of the Natural Variability in Near-Term Climate PredictionsHideo Shiogama0Seita Emori1Takashi Mochizuki2Sayaka Yasunaka3Tokuta Yokohata4Masayoshi Ishii5Toru Nozawa6Masahide Kimoto7National Institute for Environmental Studies, 22-1 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, JapanNational Institute for Environmental Studies, 22-1 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, JapanJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showamachi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, JapanCenter for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8568, JapanJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showamachi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, JapanMeteorological Research Institute, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, JapanNational Institute for Environmental Studies, 22-1 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, JapanCenter for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8568, JapanInitialization based on data assimilations using historical observations possibly improves near-term climate predictions. Significant volcanic activity in the future is unpredictable and not assumed in future climate predictions. To examine the possible influence of unpredictable future volcanic activity on the decadal potential predictability of the natural variability, we performed a 2006–2035 climate prediction experiment with the assumption that the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption would take place again in 2010. The Pinatubo forcing induced not only significant cooling responses but also considerable noises in the natural variability. The errors due to the Pinatubo forcing grew faster than that arising from imperfect knowledge of the observed state, leading to a rapid reduction of the decadal potential predictability of the natural variability.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2010/657318 |
| spellingShingle | Hideo Shiogama Seita Emori Takashi Mochizuki Sayaka Yasunaka Tokuta Yokohata Masayoshi Ishii Toru Nozawa Masahide Kimoto Possible Influence of Volcanic Activity on the Decadal Potential Predictability of the Natural Variability in Near-Term Climate Predictions Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Possible Influence of Volcanic Activity on the Decadal Potential Predictability of the Natural Variability in Near-Term Climate Predictions |
| title_full | Possible Influence of Volcanic Activity on the Decadal Potential Predictability of the Natural Variability in Near-Term Climate Predictions |
| title_fullStr | Possible Influence of Volcanic Activity on the Decadal Potential Predictability of the Natural Variability in Near-Term Climate Predictions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Possible Influence of Volcanic Activity on the Decadal Potential Predictability of the Natural Variability in Near-Term Climate Predictions |
| title_short | Possible Influence of Volcanic Activity on the Decadal Potential Predictability of the Natural Variability in Near-Term Climate Predictions |
| title_sort | possible influence of volcanic activity on the decadal potential predictability of the natural variability in near term climate predictions |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2010/657318 |
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