Uncertainty in Projected Changes in Precipitation Minus Evaporation: Dominant Role of Dynamic Circulation Changes and Weak Role for Thermodynamic Changes
Abstract End of century projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models show a decrease in precipitation over subtropical oceans that often extends into surrounding land areas, but with substantial intermodel spread. Changes in precipitation are controlled by both thermodynamica...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2022-06-01
|
| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097725 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832591232530907136 |
|---|---|
| author | Eilat Elbaum Chaim I. Garfinkel Ori Adam Efrat Morin Dorita Rostkier‐Edelstein Uri Dayan |
| author_facet | Eilat Elbaum Chaim I. Garfinkel Ori Adam Efrat Morin Dorita Rostkier‐Edelstein Uri Dayan |
| author_sort | Eilat Elbaum |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract End of century projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models show a decrease in precipitation over subtropical oceans that often extends into surrounding land areas, but with substantial intermodel spread. Changes in precipitation are controlled by both thermodynamical and dynamical processes, though the importance of these processes for regional scales and for intermodel spread is not well understood. The contribution of dynamic and thermodynamic processes to the model spread in regional precipitation minus evaporation (P − E) is computed for 48 CMIP models. The intermodel spread is dominated essentially everywhere by the change of the dynamic term, including in most regions where thermodynamic changes drive the multi‐model mean response. The dominant role of dynamic changes is insensitive to zonal averaging which removes any influence of stationary wave changes, and is also evident in subtropical oceanic regions. Relatedly, intermodel spread in P − E is generally unrelated to climate sensitivity. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5ca7d747c76f4d9f80c35206f5e57e59 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-5ca7d747c76f4d9f80c35206f5e57e592025-01-22T14:38:16ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072022-06-014912n/an/a10.1029/2022GL097725Uncertainty in Projected Changes in Precipitation Minus Evaporation: Dominant Role of Dynamic Circulation Changes and Weak Role for Thermodynamic ChangesEilat Elbaum0Chaim I. Garfinkel1Ori Adam2Efrat Morin3Dorita Rostkier‐Edelstein4Uri Dayan5Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences Hebrew University Jerusalem IsraelFredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences Hebrew University Jerusalem IsraelFredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences Hebrew University Jerusalem IsraelFredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences Hebrew University Jerusalem IsraelFredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences Hebrew University Jerusalem IsraelDepartment of Geography Hebrew University Jerusalem IsraelAbstract End of century projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models show a decrease in precipitation over subtropical oceans that often extends into surrounding land areas, but with substantial intermodel spread. Changes in precipitation are controlled by both thermodynamical and dynamical processes, though the importance of these processes for regional scales and for intermodel spread is not well understood. The contribution of dynamic and thermodynamic processes to the model spread in regional precipitation minus evaporation (P − E) is computed for 48 CMIP models. The intermodel spread is dominated essentially everywhere by the change of the dynamic term, including in most regions where thermodynamic changes drive the multi‐model mean response. The dominant role of dynamic changes is insensitive to zonal averaging which removes any influence of stationary wave changes, and is also evident in subtropical oceanic regions. Relatedly, intermodel spread in P − E is generally unrelated to climate sensitivity.https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097725hydroclimate changessubtropical dryingCMIP5/6 |
| spellingShingle | Eilat Elbaum Chaim I. Garfinkel Ori Adam Efrat Morin Dorita Rostkier‐Edelstein Uri Dayan Uncertainty in Projected Changes in Precipitation Minus Evaporation: Dominant Role of Dynamic Circulation Changes and Weak Role for Thermodynamic Changes Geophysical Research Letters hydroclimate changes subtropical drying CMIP5/6 |
| title | Uncertainty in Projected Changes in Precipitation Minus Evaporation: Dominant Role of Dynamic Circulation Changes and Weak Role for Thermodynamic Changes |
| title_full | Uncertainty in Projected Changes in Precipitation Minus Evaporation: Dominant Role of Dynamic Circulation Changes and Weak Role for Thermodynamic Changes |
| title_fullStr | Uncertainty in Projected Changes in Precipitation Minus Evaporation: Dominant Role of Dynamic Circulation Changes and Weak Role for Thermodynamic Changes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertainty in Projected Changes in Precipitation Minus Evaporation: Dominant Role of Dynamic Circulation Changes and Weak Role for Thermodynamic Changes |
| title_short | Uncertainty in Projected Changes in Precipitation Minus Evaporation: Dominant Role of Dynamic Circulation Changes and Weak Role for Thermodynamic Changes |
| title_sort | uncertainty in projected changes in precipitation minus evaporation dominant role of dynamic circulation changes and weak role for thermodynamic changes |
| topic | hydroclimate changes subtropical drying CMIP5/6 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097725 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT eilatelbaum uncertaintyinprojectedchangesinprecipitationminusevaporationdominantroleofdynamiccirculationchangesandweakroleforthermodynamicchanges AT chaimigarfinkel uncertaintyinprojectedchangesinprecipitationminusevaporationdominantroleofdynamiccirculationchangesandweakroleforthermodynamicchanges AT oriadam uncertaintyinprojectedchangesinprecipitationminusevaporationdominantroleofdynamiccirculationchangesandweakroleforthermodynamicchanges AT efratmorin uncertaintyinprojectedchangesinprecipitationminusevaporationdominantroleofdynamiccirculationchangesandweakroleforthermodynamicchanges AT doritarostkieredelstein uncertaintyinprojectedchangesinprecipitationminusevaporationdominantroleofdynamiccirculationchangesandweakroleforthermodynamicchanges AT uridayan uncertaintyinprojectedchangesinprecipitationminusevaporationdominantroleofdynamiccirculationchangesandweakroleforthermodynamicchanges |