Developing a multivariate drought index to assess drought characteristics based on the SWAT-Copula method in the Poyang Lake basin, China
The Poyang Lake Basin (PLB) has a long-standing history of drought, which has been intensified by global warming, posing significant risks to water security and agriculture. However, the specific patterns of drought, particularly seasonal variations, remain poorly understood, making it crucial to in...
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25000524 |
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| author | Liping Guo Fusheng Chen Bin Wang De Li Liu Xiulong Chen Hongsheng Huang Hua Bai Kaitao Liao Zhiming Xia Keyu Xiang Linchao Li Taihui Zheng Qiang Yu |
| author_facet | Liping Guo Fusheng Chen Bin Wang De Li Liu Xiulong Chen Hongsheng Huang Hua Bai Kaitao Liao Zhiming Xia Keyu Xiang Linchao Li Taihui Zheng Qiang Yu |
| author_sort | Liping Guo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Poyang Lake Basin (PLB) has a long-standing history of drought, which has been intensified by global warming, posing significant risks to water security and agriculture. However, the specific patterns of drought, particularly seasonal variations, remain poorly understood, making it crucial to investigate these dynamics for effective water management and resilience planning. We employed calibrated SWAT model to simulate monthly soil moisture in five sub-basins to analyze drought characteristics across the PLB over the past six decades. A Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) was then developed with simulated Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on copula functions. We found that (1) The SWAT can simulate monthly streamflow well with NS being 0.76–0.92 for validation data over the sub-basins in the PLB. (2) The MSDI index indicated that there were more drought events during 1960–1979 and 2000–2019, highlighting a cyclical pattern of drought events in the PLB. (3) The Xiushui River Basin encountered the most extreme drought conditions since 2000, indicating the basin faced a high risk of dry conditions. Additionally, our wavelet period analysis showed an increase in drought frequency after the year 2000, with less distinct periodicity. These findings contribute to our understanding of drought dynamics in the Poyang Lake Basin and offer valuable insights for developing sustainable water resource management and climate adaptation strategies in the region. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5bd828b4f20341748e0f8d615a1a5f52 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-5bd828b4f20341748e0f8d615a1a5f522025-01-31T05:10:55ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-01-01170113123Developing a multivariate drought index to assess drought characteristics based on the SWAT-Copula method in the Poyang Lake basin, ChinaLiping Guo0Fusheng Chen1Bin Wang2De Li Liu3Xiulong Chen4Hongsheng Huang5Hua Bai6Kaitao Liao7Zhiming Xia8Keyu Xiang9Linchao Li10Taihui Zheng11Qiang Yu12Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration on Forest Ecosystem Protection and Restoration of Poyang Lake Watershed, College of Forestry, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China; NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, AustraliaKey Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration on Forest Ecosystem Protection and Restoration of Poyang Lake Watershed, College of Forestry, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, ChinaNSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia; Gulbali Institute for Agriculture, Water and Environment, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia; Corresponding author at: NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia.NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia; Gulbali Institute for Agriculture, Water and Environment, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; Corresponding author at: NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia.College of Land Resources and Environment, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China; Corresponding author at: College of Land Resources and Environment, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China.College of Land Resources and Environment, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, ChinaJiangxi Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Water Environment, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330099, ChinaCollege of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China; Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Prevention, Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering, Nanchang 330029, ChinaKey Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration on Forest Ecosystem Protection and Restoration of Poyang Lake Watershed, College of Forestry, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, ChinaNSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, AustraliaDepartment of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USACollege of Land Resources and Environment, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, ChinaThe Poyang Lake Basin (PLB) has a long-standing history of drought, which has been intensified by global warming, posing significant risks to water security and agriculture. However, the specific patterns of drought, particularly seasonal variations, remain poorly understood, making it crucial to investigate these dynamics for effective water management and resilience planning. We employed calibrated SWAT model to simulate monthly soil moisture in five sub-basins to analyze drought characteristics across the PLB over the past six decades. A Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) was then developed with simulated Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on copula functions. We found that (1) The SWAT can simulate monthly streamflow well with NS being 0.76–0.92 for validation data over the sub-basins in the PLB. (2) The MSDI index indicated that there were more drought events during 1960–1979 and 2000–2019, highlighting a cyclical pattern of drought events in the PLB. (3) The Xiushui River Basin encountered the most extreme drought conditions since 2000, indicating the basin faced a high risk of dry conditions. Additionally, our wavelet period analysis showed an increase in drought frequency after the year 2000, with less distinct periodicity. These findings contribute to our understanding of drought dynamics in the Poyang Lake Basin and offer valuable insights for developing sustainable water resource management and climate adaptation strategies in the region.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25000524Drought characteristicsStandardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI)Multivariate standardized drought indexPoyang Lake Basin |
| spellingShingle | Liping Guo Fusheng Chen Bin Wang De Li Liu Xiulong Chen Hongsheng Huang Hua Bai Kaitao Liao Zhiming Xia Keyu Xiang Linchao Li Taihui Zheng Qiang Yu Developing a multivariate drought index to assess drought characteristics based on the SWAT-Copula method in the Poyang Lake basin, China Ecological Indicators Drought characteristics Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) Multivariate standardized drought index Poyang Lake Basin |
| title | Developing a multivariate drought index to assess drought characteristics based on the SWAT-Copula method in the Poyang Lake basin, China |
| title_full | Developing a multivariate drought index to assess drought characteristics based on the SWAT-Copula method in the Poyang Lake basin, China |
| title_fullStr | Developing a multivariate drought index to assess drought characteristics based on the SWAT-Copula method in the Poyang Lake basin, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Developing a multivariate drought index to assess drought characteristics based on the SWAT-Copula method in the Poyang Lake basin, China |
| title_short | Developing a multivariate drought index to assess drought characteristics based on the SWAT-Copula method in the Poyang Lake basin, China |
| title_sort | developing a multivariate drought index to assess drought characteristics based on the swat copula method in the poyang lake basin china |
| topic | Drought characteristics Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) Multivariate standardized drought index Poyang Lake Basin |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25000524 |
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