Multimodal data-based longitudinal prognostic model for predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation in patients with patent foramen ovale and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation
Abstract Background Clinical studies on atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after catheter ablation in patients diagnosed with patent foramen ovale (PFO) and paroxysmal AF (PAF) are scarce. Here, we aimed to develop a nomogram model utilizing multimodal data for the risk stratification of AF recurre...
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2025-01-01
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| Series: | European Journal of Medical Research |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40001-025-02286-z |
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| author | Shoupeng Duan Xujun Li Jun Wang Yuhong Wang Tianyou Xu Fuding Guo Yijun Wang Lingpeng Song Zeyan Li Xiaomeng Yang Xiaoyu Shi Hengyang Liu Liping Zhou Yueyi Wang Hong Jiang Lilei Yu |
| author_facet | Shoupeng Duan Xujun Li Jun Wang Yuhong Wang Tianyou Xu Fuding Guo Yijun Wang Lingpeng Song Zeyan Li Xiaomeng Yang Xiaoyu Shi Hengyang Liu Liping Zhou Yueyi Wang Hong Jiang Lilei Yu |
| author_sort | Shoupeng Duan |
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| description | Abstract Background Clinical studies on atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after catheter ablation in patients diagnosed with patent foramen ovale (PFO) and paroxysmal AF (PAF) are scarce. Here, we aimed to develop a nomogram model utilizing multimodal data for the risk stratification of AF recurrence following catheter ablation in individuals diagnosed with PFO and new-onset PAF. Methods Patients with PFO and PAF who underwent catheter ablation at the Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from January 2018 to June 2020 were consecutively enrolled. The identification of potential risk factors was conducted using the regression method known as least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. Subsequently, multivariate COX regression analysis was conducted to determine the independent risk factors, after which a nomogram scoring system was developed. The nomogram's performance was assessed via various statistical measures, including receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results The dataset was partitioned into the development cohort (n = 102) and the validation cohort (n = 43) using a 7:3 ratio. The constructed nomogram included four clinical variables: age, diabetes mellitus, lipoprotein (a), and right ventricular diameter. The area under the curve values of the development and validation cohorts at 1, 2, and 3 years post-catheter ablation were 0.911, 0.812, and 0.786 and 0.842, 0.761, and 0.785, respectively. Additionally, the nomogram demonstrated a significant correlation between the predicted and actual outcomes in the development and validation cohorts, indicating its excellent calibration. Lastly, the DCA findings suggested that the model had notable clinical applicability in predicting the likelihood of AF recurrence within 1, 2, and 3 years after catheter ablation. Conclusion The incorporation of multimodal data in a nomogram visualization tool facilitates the concise representation of multimodal data, thereby enhancing the comprehension of the clinical status of patients with PFO and PAF following catheter ablation and providing accurate risk stratification at 1, 2, and 3 years post-treatment. Trial registration: This trial was registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry. (ChiCTR2300072320). Graphical Abstract |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5b47bc794648431a97f4ae5d9ebb00c5 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2047-783X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
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| series | European Journal of Medical Research |
| spelling | doaj-art-5b47bc794648431a97f4ae5d9ebb00c52025-01-26T12:21:46ZengBMCEuropean Journal of Medical Research2047-783X2025-01-0130111510.1186/s40001-025-02286-zMultimodal data-based longitudinal prognostic model for predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation in patients with patent foramen ovale and paroxysmal atrial fibrillationShoupeng Duan0Xujun Li1Jun Wang2Yuhong Wang3Tianyou Xu4Fuding Guo5Yijun Wang6Lingpeng Song7Zeyan Li8Xiaomeng Yang9Xiaoyu Shi10Hengyang Liu11Liping Zhou12Yueyi Wang13Hong Jiang14Lilei Yu15Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Institute of Molecular Medicine, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Autonomic Nervous System Modulation; Taikang Center for Life and Medical Sciences, Wuhan University; Cardiac Autonomic Nervous System Research Center of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Cardiology; Cardiovascular Research Institute, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Institute of Molecular Medicine, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Autonomic Nervous System Modulation; Taikang Center for Life and Medical Sciences, Wuhan University; Cardiac Autonomic Nervous System Research Center of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Cardiology; Cardiovascular Research Institute, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical UniversityDepartment of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Institute of Molecular Medicine, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Autonomic Nervous System Modulation; Taikang Center for Life and Medical Sciences, Wuhan University; Cardiac Autonomic Nervous System Research Center of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Cardiology; Cardiovascular Research Institute, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Institute of Molecular Medicine, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Autonomic Nervous System Modulation; Taikang Center for Life and Medical Sciences, Wuhan University; Cardiac Autonomic Nervous System Research Center of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Cardiology; Cardiovascular Research Institute, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Institute of Molecular Medicine, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Autonomic Nervous System Modulation; Taikang Center for Life and Medical Sciences, Wuhan University; Cardiac Autonomic Nervous System Research Center of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Cardiology; Cardiovascular Research Institute, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Institute of Molecular Medicine, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Autonomic Nervous System Modulation; Taikang Center for Life and Medical Sciences, Wuhan University; Cardiac Autonomic Nervous System Research Center of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Cardiology; Cardiovascular Research Institute, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Institute of Molecular Medicine, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Autonomic Nervous System Modulation; Taikang Center for Life and Medical Sciences, Wuhan University; Cardiac Autonomic Nervous System Research Center of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Cardiology; Cardiovascular Research Institute, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Institute of Molecular Medicine, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Autonomic Nervous System Modulation; Taikang Center for Life and Medical Sciences, Wuhan University; Cardiac Autonomic Nervous System Research Center of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Cardiology; Cardiovascular Research Institute, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Institute of Molecular Medicine, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Autonomic Nervous System Modulation; Taikang Center for Life and Medical Sciences, Wuhan University; Cardiac Autonomic Nervous System Research Center of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Cardiology; Cardiovascular Research Institute, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Institute of Molecular Medicine, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Autonomic Nervous System Modulation; Taikang Center for Life and Medical Sciences, Wuhan University; Cardiac Autonomic Nervous System Research Center of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Cardiology; Cardiovascular Research Institute, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Institute of Molecular Medicine, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Autonomic Nervous System Modulation; Taikang Center for Life and Medical Sciences, Wuhan University; Cardiac Autonomic Nervous System Research Center of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Cardiology; Cardiovascular Research Institute, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Institute of Molecular Medicine, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Autonomic Nervous System Modulation; Taikang Center for Life and Medical Sciences, Wuhan University; Cardiac Autonomic Nervous System Research Center of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Cardiology; Cardiovascular Research Institute, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Institute of Molecular Medicine, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Autonomic Nervous System Modulation; Taikang Center for Life and Medical Sciences, Wuhan University; Cardiac Autonomic Nervous System Research Center of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Cardiology; Cardiovascular Research Institute, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Institute of Molecular Medicine, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Autonomic Nervous System Modulation; Taikang Center for Life and Medical Sciences, Wuhan University; Cardiac Autonomic Nervous System Research Center of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Cardiology; Cardiovascular Research Institute, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Institute of Molecular Medicine, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Autonomic Nervous System Modulation; Taikang Center for Life and Medical Sciences, Wuhan University; Cardiac Autonomic Nervous System Research Center of Wuhan University; Hubei Key Laboratory of Cardiology; Cardiovascular Research Institute, Wuhan UniversityAbstract Background Clinical studies on atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after catheter ablation in patients diagnosed with patent foramen ovale (PFO) and paroxysmal AF (PAF) are scarce. Here, we aimed to develop a nomogram model utilizing multimodal data for the risk stratification of AF recurrence following catheter ablation in individuals diagnosed with PFO and new-onset PAF. Methods Patients with PFO and PAF who underwent catheter ablation at the Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from January 2018 to June 2020 were consecutively enrolled. The identification of potential risk factors was conducted using the regression method known as least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. Subsequently, multivariate COX regression analysis was conducted to determine the independent risk factors, after which a nomogram scoring system was developed. The nomogram's performance was assessed via various statistical measures, including receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results The dataset was partitioned into the development cohort (n = 102) and the validation cohort (n = 43) using a 7:3 ratio. The constructed nomogram included four clinical variables: age, diabetes mellitus, lipoprotein (a), and right ventricular diameter. The area under the curve values of the development and validation cohorts at 1, 2, and 3 years post-catheter ablation were 0.911, 0.812, and 0.786 and 0.842, 0.761, and 0.785, respectively. Additionally, the nomogram demonstrated a significant correlation between the predicted and actual outcomes in the development and validation cohorts, indicating its excellent calibration. Lastly, the DCA findings suggested that the model had notable clinical applicability in predicting the likelihood of AF recurrence within 1, 2, and 3 years after catheter ablation. Conclusion The incorporation of multimodal data in a nomogram visualization tool facilitates the concise representation of multimodal data, thereby enhancing the comprehension of the clinical status of patients with PFO and PAF following catheter ablation and providing accurate risk stratification at 1, 2, and 3 years post-treatment. Trial registration: This trial was registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry. (ChiCTR2300072320). Graphical Abstracthttps://doi.org/10.1186/s40001-025-02286-zPrediction nomogramPatent foramen ovaleRecurrent Atrial fibrillationCatheter ablation |
| spellingShingle | Shoupeng Duan Xujun Li Jun Wang Yuhong Wang Tianyou Xu Fuding Guo Yijun Wang Lingpeng Song Zeyan Li Xiaomeng Yang Xiaoyu Shi Hengyang Liu Liping Zhou Yueyi Wang Hong Jiang Lilei Yu Multimodal data-based longitudinal prognostic model for predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation in patients with patent foramen ovale and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation European Journal of Medical Research Prediction nomogram Patent foramen ovale Recurrent Atrial fibrillation Catheter ablation |
| title | Multimodal data-based longitudinal prognostic model for predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation in patients with patent foramen ovale and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation |
| title_full | Multimodal data-based longitudinal prognostic model for predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation in patients with patent foramen ovale and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation |
| title_fullStr | Multimodal data-based longitudinal prognostic model for predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation in patients with patent foramen ovale and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multimodal data-based longitudinal prognostic model for predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation in patients with patent foramen ovale and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation |
| title_short | Multimodal data-based longitudinal prognostic model for predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation in patients with patent foramen ovale and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation |
| title_sort | multimodal data based longitudinal prognostic model for predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation in patients with patent foramen ovale and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation |
| topic | Prediction nomogram Patent foramen ovale Recurrent Atrial fibrillation Catheter ablation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40001-025-02286-z |
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