The Role of Disorder in Foreshock Activity
Foreshocks, observed before some large earthquakes, remain debated in terms of their origins and predictive value. While aftershocks fit well within bottom-up triggering models like ETAS, foreshocks may arise from distinct preparatory processes. Observations suggest real seismic catalogs exhibit mor...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Geosciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/15/6/226 |
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| Summary: | Foreshocks, observed before some large earthquakes, remain debated in terms of their origins and predictive value. While aftershocks fit well within bottom-up triggering models like ETAS, foreshocks may arise from distinct preparatory processes. Observations suggest real seismic catalogs exhibit more foreshocks than ETAS predicts, and laboratory experiments show that fault heterogeneity enhances foreshock activity. Here, I use a numerical model that reproduces key statistical properties of seismicity to investigate the role of fault heterogeneity. My simulations confirm that increasing interface disorder promotes foreshocks, aligning with laboratory findings and suggesting that fault complexity influences seismic precursors. |
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| ISSN: | 2076-3263 |