Nomogram to Predict the Survival of Chinese Patients with Alcohol-Related Liver Disease
Objectives. Alcohol-related liver disease is an increasing public health burden in China, but there is a lack of models to predict its prognosis. This study established a nomogram for predicting the survival of Chinese patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD). Methods. Hospitalized alcohol-...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Canadian Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/4073503 |
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| author | Fangfang Duan Chen Liu Yuwei Liu Chunyan Chang Hang Zhai Huichun Xing Jun Cheng Song Yang |
| author_facet | Fangfang Duan Chen Liu Yuwei Liu Chunyan Chang Hang Zhai Huichun Xing Jun Cheng Song Yang |
| author_sort | Fangfang Duan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives. Alcohol-related liver disease is an increasing public health burden in China, but there is a lack of models to predict its prognosis. This study established a nomogram for predicting the survival of Chinese patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD). Methods. Hospitalized alcohol-related liver disease patients were retrospectively enrolled from 2015 to 2018 and followed up for 24 months to evaluate survival profiles. A total of 379 patients were divided into a training cohort (n = 265) and validation cohort (n = 114). Cox proportional hazard survival analysis identified survival factors of the patients in the training cohort. A nomogram was built and internally validated. Results. The 3-month, 6-month, 12-month, and 24-month survival rates for the training cohort were 82.6%, 81.1%, 74.3%, and 64.5%, respectively. The Cox analysis showed relapse (P=0.001), cirrhosis (P=0.044), liver cancer (P<0.001), and a model for end-stage liver diseases score of ≥21 (P=0.041) as independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was built, which predicted the survival of patients in the training cohort with a concordance index of 0.749 and in the internal validation cohort with a concordance index of 0.756. Conclusion. The long-term survival of Chinese alcohol-related liver disease patients was poor with a 24-month survival rate of 64.5%. Relapse, cirrhosis, liver cancer, and a model for end-stage liver disease score of ≥21 were independent risk factors for those patients. A nomogram was developed and internally validated for predicting the probability of their survival at different time points. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-59611b3cfe0d4cabb24fe9e090e514c5 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2291-2789 2291-2797 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Canadian Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology |
| spelling | doaj-art-59611b3cfe0d4cabb24fe9e090e514c52025-02-03T06:08:33ZengWileyCanadian Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology2291-27892291-27972021-01-01202110.1155/2021/40735034073503Nomogram to Predict the Survival of Chinese Patients with Alcohol-Related Liver DiseaseFangfang Duan0Chen Liu1Yuwei Liu2Chunyan Chang3Hang Zhai4Huichun Xing5Jun Cheng6Song Yang7Division 3, Department of Hepatology, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100015, ChinaDivision 3, Department of Hepatology, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100015, ChinaDivision 3, Department of Hepatology, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100015, ChinaDivision 3, Department of Hepatology, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100015, ChinaDivision 3, Department of Hepatology, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100015, ChinaDivision 3, Department of Hepatology, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100015, ChinaDivision 3, Department of Hepatology, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100015, ChinaDivision 3, Department of Hepatology, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100015, ChinaObjectives. Alcohol-related liver disease is an increasing public health burden in China, but there is a lack of models to predict its prognosis. This study established a nomogram for predicting the survival of Chinese patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD). Methods. Hospitalized alcohol-related liver disease patients were retrospectively enrolled from 2015 to 2018 and followed up for 24 months to evaluate survival profiles. A total of 379 patients were divided into a training cohort (n = 265) and validation cohort (n = 114). Cox proportional hazard survival analysis identified survival factors of the patients in the training cohort. A nomogram was built and internally validated. Results. The 3-month, 6-month, 12-month, and 24-month survival rates for the training cohort were 82.6%, 81.1%, 74.3%, and 64.5%, respectively. The Cox analysis showed relapse (P=0.001), cirrhosis (P=0.044), liver cancer (P<0.001), and a model for end-stage liver diseases score of ≥21 (P=0.041) as independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was built, which predicted the survival of patients in the training cohort with a concordance index of 0.749 and in the internal validation cohort with a concordance index of 0.756. Conclusion. The long-term survival of Chinese alcohol-related liver disease patients was poor with a 24-month survival rate of 64.5%. Relapse, cirrhosis, liver cancer, and a model for end-stage liver disease score of ≥21 were independent risk factors for those patients. A nomogram was developed and internally validated for predicting the probability of their survival at different time points.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/4073503 |
| spellingShingle | Fangfang Duan Chen Liu Yuwei Liu Chunyan Chang Hang Zhai Huichun Xing Jun Cheng Song Yang Nomogram to Predict the Survival of Chinese Patients with Alcohol-Related Liver Disease Canadian Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology |
| title | Nomogram to Predict the Survival of Chinese Patients with Alcohol-Related Liver Disease |
| title_full | Nomogram to Predict the Survival of Chinese Patients with Alcohol-Related Liver Disease |
| title_fullStr | Nomogram to Predict the Survival of Chinese Patients with Alcohol-Related Liver Disease |
| title_full_unstemmed | Nomogram to Predict the Survival of Chinese Patients with Alcohol-Related Liver Disease |
| title_short | Nomogram to Predict the Survival of Chinese Patients with Alcohol-Related Liver Disease |
| title_sort | nomogram to predict the survival of chinese patients with alcohol related liver disease |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/4073503 |
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