Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease in Malaysia up to the Year 2040
Background. The incidence of patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) requiring dialysis has been growing rapidly in Malaysia from 18 per million population (pmp) in 1993 to 231 pmp in 2013. Objective. To forecast the incidence and prevalence of ESRD patients who will require dialysis treatment...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2017-01-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Nephrology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/2735296 |
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| author | Mohamad Adam Bujang Tassha Hilda Adnan Nadiah Hanis Hashim Kirubashni Mohan Ang Kim Liong Ghazali Ahmad Goh Bak Leong Sunita Bavanandan Jamaiyah Haniff |
| author_facet | Mohamad Adam Bujang Tassha Hilda Adnan Nadiah Hanis Hashim Kirubashni Mohan Ang Kim Liong Ghazali Ahmad Goh Bak Leong Sunita Bavanandan Jamaiyah Haniff |
| author_sort | Mohamad Adam Bujang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background. The incidence of patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) requiring dialysis has been growing rapidly in Malaysia from 18 per million population (pmp) in 1993 to 231 pmp in 2013. Objective. To forecast the incidence and prevalence of ESRD patients who will require dialysis treatment in Malaysia until 2040. Methodology. Univariate forecasting models using the number of new and current dialysis patients, by the Malaysian Dialysis and Transplant Registry from 1993 to 2013 were used. Four forecasting models were evaluated, and the model with the smallest error was selected for the prediction. Result. ARIMA (0, 2, 1) modeling with the lowest error was selected to predict both the incidence (RMSE = 135.50, MAPE = 2.85, and MAE = 87.71) and the prevalence (RMSE = 158.79, MAPE = 1.29, and MAE = 117.21) of dialysis patients. The estimated incidences of new dialysis patients in 2020 and 2040 are 10,208 and 19,418 cases, respectively, while the estimated prevalence is 51,269 and 106,249 cases. Conclusion. The growth of ESRD patients on dialysis in Malaysia can be expected to continue at an alarming rate. Effective steps to address and curb further increase in new patients requiring dialysis are urgently needed, in order to mitigate the expected financial and health catastrophes associated with the projected increase of such patients. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-57d84f28e7a44e719fc4c3d077daa6fd |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2090-214X 2090-2158 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2017-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Nephrology |
| spelling | doaj-art-57d84f28e7a44e719fc4c3d077daa6fd2025-02-03T05:46:55ZengWileyInternational Journal of Nephrology2090-214X2090-21582017-01-01201710.1155/2017/27352962735296Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease in Malaysia up to the Year 2040Mohamad Adam Bujang0Tassha Hilda Adnan1Nadiah Hanis Hashim2Kirubashni Mohan3Ang Kim Liong4Ghazali Ahmad5Goh Bak Leong6Sunita Bavanandan7Jamaiyah Haniff8National Clinical Research Centre, Kuala Lumpur, MalaysiaNational Clinical Research Centre, Kuala Lumpur, MalaysiaNational Clinical Research Centre, Kuala Lumpur, MalaysiaNational Clinical Research Centre, Kuala Lumpur, MalaysiaClinical Research Centre, Serdang Hospital, Kajang, MalaysiaDepartment of Nephrology, Kuala Lumpur Hospital, Kuala Lumpur, MalaysiaClinical Research Centre, Serdang Hospital, Kajang, MalaysiaDepartment of Nephrology, Kuala Lumpur Hospital, Kuala Lumpur, MalaysiaMalaysian Health Performance Unit, Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur, MalaysiaBackground. The incidence of patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) requiring dialysis has been growing rapidly in Malaysia from 18 per million population (pmp) in 1993 to 231 pmp in 2013. Objective. To forecast the incidence and prevalence of ESRD patients who will require dialysis treatment in Malaysia until 2040. Methodology. Univariate forecasting models using the number of new and current dialysis patients, by the Malaysian Dialysis and Transplant Registry from 1993 to 2013 were used. Four forecasting models were evaluated, and the model with the smallest error was selected for the prediction. Result. ARIMA (0, 2, 1) modeling with the lowest error was selected to predict both the incidence (RMSE = 135.50, MAPE = 2.85, and MAE = 87.71) and the prevalence (RMSE = 158.79, MAPE = 1.29, and MAE = 117.21) of dialysis patients. The estimated incidences of new dialysis patients in 2020 and 2040 are 10,208 and 19,418 cases, respectively, while the estimated prevalence is 51,269 and 106,249 cases. Conclusion. The growth of ESRD patients on dialysis in Malaysia can be expected to continue at an alarming rate. Effective steps to address and curb further increase in new patients requiring dialysis are urgently needed, in order to mitigate the expected financial and health catastrophes associated with the projected increase of such patients.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/2735296 |
| spellingShingle | Mohamad Adam Bujang Tassha Hilda Adnan Nadiah Hanis Hashim Kirubashni Mohan Ang Kim Liong Ghazali Ahmad Goh Bak Leong Sunita Bavanandan Jamaiyah Haniff Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease in Malaysia up to the Year 2040 International Journal of Nephrology |
| title | Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease in Malaysia up to the Year 2040 |
| title_full | Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease in Malaysia up to the Year 2040 |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease in Malaysia up to the Year 2040 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease in Malaysia up to the Year 2040 |
| title_short | Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease in Malaysia up to the Year 2040 |
| title_sort | forecasting the incidence and prevalence of patients with end stage renal disease in malaysia up to the year 2040 |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/2735296 |
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