Evaluation of Coupled Model Forecasts of Ethiopian Highlands Summer Climate
This study evaluates seasonal forecasts of rainfall and maximum temperature across the Ethiopian highlands from coupled ensemble models in the period 1981–2006, by comparison with gridded observational products (NMA + GPCC/CRU3). Early season forecasts from the coupled forecast system (CFS) are stea...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/894318 |
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| author | Mark R. Jury |
| author_facet | Mark R. Jury |
| author_sort | Mark R. Jury |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study evaluates seasonal forecasts of rainfall and maximum temperature across the Ethiopian highlands from coupled ensemble models in the period 1981–2006, by comparison with gridded observational products (NMA + GPCC/CRU3). Early season forecasts from the coupled forecast system (CFS) are steadier than European community medium range forecast (ECMWF). CFS and ECMWF April forecasts of June–August (JJA) rainfall achieve significant fit (r2=0.27, 0.25, resp.), but ECMWF forecasts tend to have a narrow range with drought underpredicted. Early season forecasts of JJA maximum temperature are weak in both models; hence ability to predict water resource gains may be better than losses. One aim of seasonal climate forecasting is to ensure that crop yields keep pace with Ethiopia’s growing population. Farmers using prediction technology are better informed to avoid risk in dry years and generate surplus in wet years. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-56cf72b6ac8e4627b263fea68ceaa2f0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-56cf72b6ac8e4627b263fea68ceaa2f02025-02-03T01:09:25ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172014-01-01201410.1155/2014/894318894318Evaluation of Coupled Model Forecasts of Ethiopian Highlands Summer ClimateMark R. Jury0University of Zululand, KwaDlangezwa 3886, South AfricaThis study evaluates seasonal forecasts of rainfall and maximum temperature across the Ethiopian highlands from coupled ensemble models in the period 1981–2006, by comparison with gridded observational products (NMA + GPCC/CRU3). Early season forecasts from the coupled forecast system (CFS) are steadier than European community medium range forecast (ECMWF). CFS and ECMWF April forecasts of June–August (JJA) rainfall achieve significant fit (r2=0.27, 0.25, resp.), but ECMWF forecasts tend to have a narrow range with drought underpredicted. Early season forecasts of JJA maximum temperature are weak in both models; hence ability to predict water resource gains may be better than losses. One aim of seasonal climate forecasting is to ensure that crop yields keep pace with Ethiopia’s growing population. Farmers using prediction technology are better informed to avoid risk in dry years and generate surplus in wet years.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/894318 |
| spellingShingle | Mark R. Jury Evaluation of Coupled Model Forecasts of Ethiopian Highlands Summer Climate Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Evaluation of Coupled Model Forecasts of Ethiopian Highlands Summer Climate |
| title_full | Evaluation of Coupled Model Forecasts of Ethiopian Highlands Summer Climate |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of Coupled Model Forecasts of Ethiopian Highlands Summer Climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of Coupled Model Forecasts of Ethiopian Highlands Summer Climate |
| title_short | Evaluation of Coupled Model Forecasts of Ethiopian Highlands Summer Climate |
| title_sort | evaluation of coupled model forecasts of ethiopian highlands summer climate |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/894318 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT markrjury evaluationofcoupledmodelforecastsofethiopianhighlandssummerclimate |