The effect of patterns of infectiousness on epidemic size
In the course of an infectious disease in a population, each infected individual presents a different pattern of progress through the disease,producing a corresponding pattern of infectiousness. We postulate a stochasticinfectiousness process for each individual with an almost surely finite integral...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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AIMS Press
2008-05-01
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| Series: | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
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| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2008.5.429 |
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| author | Luis F. Gordillo Stephen A. Marion Priscilla E. Greenwood |
| author_facet | Luis F. Gordillo Stephen A. Marion Priscilla E. Greenwood |
| author_sort | Luis F. Gordillo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In the course of an infectious disease in a population, each infected individual presents a different pattern of progress through the disease,producing a corresponding pattern of infectiousness. We postulate a stochasticinfectiousness process for each individual with an almost surely finite integral,or total infectiousness. Individuals also have different contact rates. We showthat the distribution of the final epidemic size depends only on the contact ratesand the integrated infectiousness. As a particular case, zero infectiousness onan initial time interval corresponds to a period of latency, which does not affectthe final epidemic size in general stochastic and deterministic epidemic models,as is well known from the literature. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-54625ebc19fd4e1d83c0b35a74878778 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1551-0018 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2008-05-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-54625ebc19fd4e1d83c0b35a748787782025-01-24T01:58:23ZengAIMS PressMathematical Biosciences and Engineering1551-00182008-05-015342943510.3934/mbe.2008.5.429The effect of patterns of infectiousness on epidemic sizeLuis F. Gordillo0Stephen A. Marion1Priscilla E. Greenwood2Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Puerto Rico-RUMDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, University of Puerto Rico-RUMDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, University of Puerto Rico-RUMIn the course of an infectious disease in a population, each infected individual presents a different pattern of progress through the disease,producing a corresponding pattern of infectiousness. We postulate a stochasticinfectiousness process for each individual with an almost surely finite integral,or total infectiousness. Individuals also have different contact rates. We showthat the distribution of the final epidemic size depends only on the contact ratesand the integrated infectiousness. As a particular case, zero infectiousness onan initial time interval corresponds to a period of latency, which does not affectthe final epidemic size in general stochastic and deterministic epidemic models,as is well known from the literature.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2008.5.429random infectiousnessvariableinfectiousnessfinal epidemic size. |
| spellingShingle | Luis F. Gordillo Stephen A. Marion Priscilla E. Greenwood The effect of patterns of infectiousness on epidemic size Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering random infectiousness variableinfectiousness final epidemic size. |
| title | The effect of patterns of infectiousness on epidemic size |
| title_full | The effect of patterns of infectiousness on epidemic size |
| title_fullStr | The effect of patterns of infectiousness on epidemic size |
| title_full_unstemmed | The effect of patterns of infectiousness on epidemic size |
| title_short | The effect of patterns of infectiousness on epidemic size |
| title_sort | effect of patterns of infectiousness on epidemic size |
| topic | random infectiousness variableinfectiousness final epidemic size. |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2008.5.429 |
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