Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria
In Compliance with the annual Act for the State Budget, the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance usually makes twice a year an internal budget restructuring in the budgets of the separate Ministries and State Agencies of the Bulgarian State. What is in intriguing in this internal budget restructuring i...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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University of Algarve, ESGHT/CINTURS
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Tourism & Management Studies |
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| Online Access: | https://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/764/1271 |
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| author | Preslav Dimitrov Maria Kalinova Gantcho Gantchev Chavdar Nikolov |
| author_facet | Preslav Dimitrov Maria Kalinova Gantcho Gantchev Chavdar Nikolov |
| author_sort | Preslav Dimitrov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In Compliance with the annual Act for the State Budget, the
Bulgarian Ministry of Finance usually makes twice a year an
internal budget restructuring in the budgets of the separate
Ministries and State Agencies of the Bulgarian State. What is in
intriguing in this internal budget restructuring is that it is usually
done in the months when the tourism receipts in the form of Value
Added Tax turnovers are usually accumulated by the Bulgarian the
tax administration. The need of proper forecasts that could
eventually justify or reject such a hidden harvesting policy has
never been examined and put to the public attention. The present
paper regards several major problems in the application of the
exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the long-run
forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in
Bulgaria. These problems include: (i) the problem of determining
the time series pattern; or the so-called “forecast profile”; (ii) the
selection of a suitable forecasting method; (iii) Calculating of shortrun and long-run forecasts; (iv) the comparison of the results of the
forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts. As a
result the Holt-Winters method is applied with the conclusion that
the produced forecasts could trigger a process a more financially
autonomous national tourism administration that will allow a
greater part of the collected tax revenues for the tourism sector to
be returned into the tourism industry in a form of public
investments through this very same more autonomous national
tourism administration. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-531b367f55cb4a71bf9153f601bf626d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2182-8466 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | University of Algarve, ESGHT/CINTURS |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tourism & Management Studies |
| spelling | doaj-art-531b367f55cb4a71bf9153f601bf626d2025-02-02T19:39:45ZengUniversity of Algarve, ESGHT/CINTURSTourism & Management Studies2182-84662015-01-01111104110Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in BulgariaPreslav Dimitrov0Maria Kalinova1Gantcho Gantchev2Chavdar Nikolov3South-West University “Neofit Rilski”, 2 Krali-Marko Str., Blagoevgrad 2700, BulgariaSouth-West University “Neofit Rilski”, 2700 Blagoevgrad, BulgariaSouth-West University “Neofit Rilski”, 2700 Blagoevgrad, BulgariaSouth-West University “Neofit Rilski”, 2700 Blagoevgrad, BulgariaIn Compliance with the annual Act for the State Budget, the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance usually makes twice a year an internal budget restructuring in the budgets of the separate Ministries and State Agencies of the Bulgarian State. What is in intriguing in this internal budget restructuring is that it is usually done in the months when the tourism receipts in the form of Value Added Tax turnovers are usually accumulated by the Bulgarian the tax administration. The need of proper forecasts that could eventually justify or reject such a hidden harvesting policy has never been examined and put to the public attention. The present paper regards several major problems in the application of the exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the long-run forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria. These problems include: (i) the problem of determining the time series pattern; or the so-called “forecast profile”; (ii) the selection of a suitable forecasting method; (iii) Calculating of shortrun and long-run forecasts; (iv) the comparison of the results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts. As a result the Holt-Winters method is applied with the conclusion that the produced forecasts could trigger a process a more financially autonomous national tourism administration that will allow a greater part of the collected tax revenues for the tourism sector to be returned into the tourism industry in a form of public investments through this very same more autonomous national tourism administration.https://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/764/1271forecastingexponential smoothingholt-winters methodmonthly tourism receipts |
| spellingShingle | Preslav Dimitrov Maria Kalinova Gantcho Gantchev Chavdar Nikolov Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria Tourism & Management Studies forecasting exponential smoothing holt-winters method monthly tourism receipts |
| title | Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria |
| title_full | Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria |
| title_fullStr | Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria |
| title_short | Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria |
| title_sort | exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in bulgaria |
| topic | forecasting exponential smoothing holt-winters method monthly tourism receipts |
| url | https://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/764/1271 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT preslavdimitrov exponentialforecastingofthemonthlyvolumeofthetourismreceiptsinbulgaria AT mariakalinova exponentialforecastingofthemonthlyvolumeofthetourismreceiptsinbulgaria AT gantchogantchev exponentialforecastingofthemonthlyvolumeofthetourismreceiptsinbulgaria AT chavdarnikolov exponentialforecastingofthemonthlyvolumeofthetourismreceiptsinbulgaria |