Large-scale flood risk assessment in data-scarce areas: an application to Central Asia
<p>The countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in Central Asia are highly prone to natural hazards, particularly floods, earthquakes, and landslides. The European Union, in collaboration with the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reducti...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/403/2025/nhess-25-403-2025.pdf |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832583714528296960 |
|---|---|
| author | P. Ceresa G. Bussi S. Denaro G. Coccia P. Bazzurro P. Bazzurro M. Martina M. Martina E. Fagà C. Avelar M. Ordaz B. Huerta O. Garay Z. Raimbekova K. Abdrakhmatov S. Mirzokhonova S. Mirzokhonova V. Ismailov V. Belikov |
| author_facet | P. Ceresa G. Bussi S. Denaro G. Coccia P. Bazzurro P. Bazzurro M. Martina M. Martina E. Fagà C. Avelar M. Ordaz B. Huerta O. Garay Z. Raimbekova K. Abdrakhmatov S. Mirzokhonova S. Mirzokhonova V. Ismailov V. Belikov |
| author_sort | P. Ceresa |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in Central Asia are highly prone to natural hazards, particularly floods, earthquakes, and landslides. The European Union, in collaboration with the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), created the programme Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) to advance disaster and climate resilience in the region. As part of the SFRARR project, the “Regionally consistent risk assessment for earthquakes and floods and selective landslide scenario analysis for strengthening financial resilience and accelerating risk reduction in Central Asia” was developed to achieve the project's objectives. This article presents the data, model, methodology, and results for the five Central Asian countries of the flood risk assessment, which represents the first high-resolution regional-scale transboundary risk assessment study in the area aiming to provide tools for decision-making. The output information will inform and enable the World Bank to initiate a policy dialogue.</p>
<p>A fully probabilistic risk assessment for fluvial floods has been carried out for these countries to support regional and national risk financing and insurance applications, including potential indemnity and/or parametric risk financing solutions for a regional programme. A homogenised risk assessment methodology for the five countries and across multiple hazards (floods and earthquakes) and asset types has been adopted to obtain strategic financial solutions consistent across geographical areas and economic sectors.</p>
<p>The largest relative (to the total exposed value) expected annual damages are found in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, with values above 6 ‰. In the five considered countries, the largest relative expected annual damages by sector are found for the transport and agricultural sectors. Climate change is expected to have contrasting impacts, with increases in risk for some regions (the most severe increase is found in the Mangistauskaya region in Kazakhstan) and decreases for other regions (Lebap, Turkmenistan; Khatlon, Tajikistan; Samarkand, Uzbekistan; and Batken, Kyrgyz Republic).</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-52faf240c8ae40a5b1cc19ab4f797e70 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-52faf240c8ae40a5b1cc19ab4f797e702025-01-28T07:00:13ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812025-01-012540342810.5194/nhess-25-403-2025Large-scale flood risk assessment in data-scarce areas: an application to Central AsiaP. Ceresa0G. Bussi1S. Denaro2G. Coccia3P. Bazzurro4P. Bazzurro5M. Martina6M. Martina7E. Fagà8C. Avelar9M. Ordaz10B. Huerta11O. Garay12Z. Raimbekova13K. Abdrakhmatov14S. Mirzokhonova15S. Mirzokhonova16V. Ismailov17V. Belikov18Risk Engineering + Development (RED), 27100 Pavia, ItalyRisk Engineering + Development (RED), 27100 Pavia, ItalyRisk Engineering + Development (RED), 27100 Pavia, ItalyRisk Engineering + Development (RED), 27100 Pavia, ItalyRisk Engineering + Development (RED), 27100 Pavia, ItalyScuola Universitaria Superiore Pavia (IUSS), 27100 Pavia, ItalyRisk Engineering + Development (RED), 27100 Pavia, ItalyScuola Universitaria Superiore Pavia (IUSS), 27100 Pavia, ItalyRisk Engineering + Development (RED), 27100 Pavia, ItalyEvaluación de Riesgos Naturales (ERN), 01050 Mexico City, MexicoEvaluación de Riesgos Naturales (ERN), 01050 Mexico City, MexicoEvaluación de Riesgos Naturales (ERN), 01050 Mexico City, MexicoEvaluación de Riesgos Naturales (ERN), 01050 Mexico City, MexicoDepartment of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, A15E3C7, Al-Farabi Ave., 71/19, Almaty, KazakhstanInstitute of Seismology of the National Academy of the Sciences Kyrgyz Republic, 720060 Bishkek, Kyrgyz RepublicInstitute of Water Problems, Hydropower and Ecology of the National Academy of Science of Tajikistan, 734042 Dushanbe, TajikistanTajik National University, 734042 Dushanbe, TajikistanInstitute of Seismology of the Academy of Sciences of Uzbekistan, 700128 Tashkent, UzbekistanIndependent consultant, 744000, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan<p>The countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in Central Asia are highly prone to natural hazards, particularly floods, earthquakes, and landslides. The European Union, in collaboration with the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), created the programme Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) to advance disaster and climate resilience in the region. As part of the SFRARR project, the “Regionally consistent risk assessment for earthquakes and floods and selective landslide scenario analysis for strengthening financial resilience and accelerating risk reduction in Central Asia” was developed to achieve the project's objectives. This article presents the data, model, methodology, and results for the five Central Asian countries of the flood risk assessment, which represents the first high-resolution regional-scale transboundary risk assessment study in the area aiming to provide tools for decision-making. The output information will inform and enable the World Bank to initiate a policy dialogue.</p> <p>A fully probabilistic risk assessment for fluvial floods has been carried out for these countries to support regional and national risk financing and insurance applications, including potential indemnity and/or parametric risk financing solutions for a regional programme. A homogenised risk assessment methodology for the five countries and across multiple hazards (floods and earthquakes) and asset types has been adopted to obtain strategic financial solutions consistent across geographical areas and economic sectors.</p> <p>The largest relative (to the total exposed value) expected annual damages are found in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, with values above 6 ‰. In the five considered countries, the largest relative expected annual damages by sector are found for the transport and agricultural sectors. Climate change is expected to have contrasting impacts, with increases in risk for some regions (the most severe increase is found in the Mangistauskaya region in Kazakhstan) and decreases for other regions (Lebap, Turkmenistan; Khatlon, Tajikistan; Samarkand, Uzbekistan; and Batken, Kyrgyz Republic).</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/403/2025/nhess-25-403-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | P. Ceresa G. Bussi S. Denaro G. Coccia P. Bazzurro P. Bazzurro M. Martina M. Martina E. Fagà C. Avelar M. Ordaz B. Huerta O. Garay Z. Raimbekova K. Abdrakhmatov S. Mirzokhonova S. Mirzokhonova V. Ismailov V. Belikov Large-scale flood risk assessment in data-scarce areas: an application to Central Asia Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Large-scale flood risk assessment in data-scarce areas: an application to Central Asia |
| title_full | Large-scale flood risk assessment in data-scarce areas: an application to Central Asia |
| title_fullStr | Large-scale flood risk assessment in data-scarce areas: an application to Central Asia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Large-scale flood risk assessment in data-scarce areas: an application to Central Asia |
| title_short | Large-scale flood risk assessment in data-scarce areas: an application to Central Asia |
| title_sort | large scale flood risk assessment in data scarce areas an application to central asia |
| url | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/403/2025/nhess-25-403-2025.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT pceresa largescalefloodriskassessmentindatascarceareasanapplicationtocentralasia AT gbussi largescalefloodriskassessmentindatascarceareasanapplicationtocentralasia AT sdenaro largescalefloodriskassessmentindatascarceareasanapplicationtocentralasia AT gcoccia largescalefloodriskassessmentindatascarceareasanapplicationtocentralasia AT pbazzurro largescalefloodriskassessmentindatascarceareasanapplicationtocentralasia AT pbazzurro largescalefloodriskassessmentindatascarceareasanapplicationtocentralasia AT mmartina largescalefloodriskassessmentindatascarceareasanapplicationtocentralasia AT mmartina largescalefloodriskassessmentindatascarceareasanapplicationtocentralasia AT efaga largescalefloodriskassessmentindatascarceareasanapplicationtocentralasia AT cavelar largescalefloodriskassessmentindatascarceareasanapplicationtocentralasia AT mordaz largescalefloodriskassessmentindatascarceareasanapplicationtocentralasia AT bhuerta largescalefloodriskassessmentindatascarceareasanapplicationtocentralasia AT ogaray largescalefloodriskassessmentindatascarceareasanapplicationtocentralasia AT zraimbekova largescalefloodriskassessmentindatascarceareasanapplicationtocentralasia AT kabdrakhmatov largescalefloodriskassessmentindatascarceareasanapplicationtocentralasia AT smirzokhonova largescalefloodriskassessmentindatascarceareasanapplicationtocentralasia AT smirzokhonova largescalefloodriskassessmentindatascarceareasanapplicationtocentralasia AT vismailov largescalefloodriskassessmentindatascarceareasanapplicationtocentralasia AT vbelikov largescalefloodriskassessmentindatascarceareasanapplicationtocentralasia |