The impact of chemotherapy-naïve open radical cystectomy delay and perioperative transfusion on the recurrence-free survival: A perioperative parameters-based nomogram

Objective: To develop and internally validate a nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) including the time to radical cystectomy (RC) and perioperative blood transfusion (PBT) as potential predictors. Methods: Patients who underwent open RC and ileal conduit between January 1996 to Decemb...

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Main Authors: Ahmed M. Harraz, Ahmed Elkarta, Mohamed H. Zahran, Ahmed Mosbah, Atallah A. Shaaban, Hassan Abol-Enein
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2024-04-01
Series:Asian Journal of Urology
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214388222001321
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author Ahmed M. Harraz
Ahmed Elkarta
Mohamed H. Zahran
Ahmed Mosbah
Atallah A. Shaaban
Hassan Abol-Enein
author_facet Ahmed M. Harraz
Ahmed Elkarta
Mohamed H. Zahran
Ahmed Mosbah
Atallah A. Shaaban
Hassan Abol-Enein
author_sort Ahmed M. Harraz
collection DOAJ
description Objective: To develop and internally validate a nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) including the time to radical cystectomy (RC) and perioperative blood transfusion (PBT) as potential predictors. Methods: Patients who underwent open RC and ileal conduit between January 1996 to December 2016 were split into developing (n=948) and validating (n=237) cohorts. The time to radical cystectomy (TTC) was defined as the interval between the onset of symptoms and RC. The regression coefficients of the independent predictors obtained by Cox regression were used to construct the nomogram. Discrimination, validation, and clinical usefulness in the validation cohort were assessed by the area under the curve, the calibration plot, and decision curve analysis. Results: In the developing dataset, the 1-, 5-, and 10-year RFS were 83.0%, 47.2%, and 44.4%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, independent predictors were TTC (hazards ratio [HR] 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05–1.08, p<0.001), PBT (one unit: HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.03–1.90, p=0.03; two or more units: HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.29–2.29, p<0.001), bilateral hydronephrosis (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.21–1.97, p<0.001), squamous cell carcinoma (HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.45–0.81, p=0.001), pT3-T4 (HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.41–2.22, p<0.001), lymph node status (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.21–1.95, p<0.001), and lymphovascular invasion (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.01–1.62, p=0.044). The areas under the curve in the validation dataset were 79.3%, 69.6%, and 76.2%, for 1-, 5-, and 10-year RFS, respectively. Calibration plots showed considerable correspondence between predicted and actual survival probabilities. The decision curve analysis revealed a better net benefit of the nomogram. Conclusion: A nomogram with good discrimination, validation, and clinical utility was constructed utilizing TTC and PBT in addition to standard pathological criteria.
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spelling doaj-art-51a6c4d1c79c4c88af23be07a6c8c54a2025-08-20T03:36:37ZengElsevierAsian Journal of Urology2214-38822024-04-0111229430310.1016/j.ajur.2022.09.002The impact of chemotherapy-naïve open radical cystectomy delay and perioperative transfusion on the recurrence-free survival: A perioperative parameters-based nomogramAhmed M. Harraz0Ahmed Elkarta1Mohamed H. Zahran2Ahmed Mosbah3Atallah A. Shaaban4Hassan Abol-Enein5Corresponding author.; Urology and Nephrology Center, Mansoura University, EgyptUrology and Nephrology Center, Mansoura University, EgyptUrology and Nephrology Center, Mansoura University, EgyptUrology and Nephrology Center, Mansoura University, EgyptUrology and Nephrology Center, Mansoura University, EgyptUrology and Nephrology Center, Mansoura University, EgyptObjective: To develop and internally validate a nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) including the time to radical cystectomy (RC) and perioperative blood transfusion (PBT) as potential predictors. Methods: Patients who underwent open RC and ileal conduit between January 1996 to December 2016 were split into developing (n=948) and validating (n=237) cohorts. The time to radical cystectomy (TTC) was defined as the interval between the onset of symptoms and RC. The regression coefficients of the independent predictors obtained by Cox regression were used to construct the nomogram. Discrimination, validation, and clinical usefulness in the validation cohort were assessed by the area under the curve, the calibration plot, and decision curve analysis. Results: In the developing dataset, the 1-, 5-, and 10-year RFS were 83.0%, 47.2%, and 44.4%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, independent predictors were TTC (hazards ratio [HR] 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05–1.08, p<0.001), PBT (one unit: HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.03–1.90, p=0.03; two or more units: HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.29–2.29, p<0.001), bilateral hydronephrosis (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.21–1.97, p<0.001), squamous cell carcinoma (HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.45–0.81, p=0.001), pT3-T4 (HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.41–2.22, p<0.001), lymph node status (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.21–1.95, p<0.001), and lymphovascular invasion (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.01–1.62, p=0.044). The areas under the curve in the validation dataset were 79.3%, 69.6%, and 76.2%, for 1-, 5-, and 10-year RFS, respectively. Calibration plots showed considerable correspondence between predicted and actual survival probabilities. The decision curve analysis revealed a better net benefit of the nomogram. Conclusion: A nomogram with good discrimination, validation, and clinical utility was constructed utilizing TTC and PBT in addition to standard pathological criteria.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214388222001321Radical cystectomyBlood transfusionTime to radical cystectomySurvivalNomogram
spellingShingle Ahmed M. Harraz
Ahmed Elkarta
Mohamed H. Zahran
Ahmed Mosbah
Atallah A. Shaaban
Hassan Abol-Enein
The impact of chemotherapy-naïve open radical cystectomy delay and perioperative transfusion on the recurrence-free survival: A perioperative parameters-based nomogram
Asian Journal of Urology
Radical cystectomy
Blood transfusion
Time to radical cystectomy
Survival
Nomogram
title The impact of chemotherapy-naïve open radical cystectomy delay and perioperative transfusion on the recurrence-free survival: A perioperative parameters-based nomogram
title_full The impact of chemotherapy-naïve open radical cystectomy delay and perioperative transfusion on the recurrence-free survival: A perioperative parameters-based nomogram
title_fullStr The impact of chemotherapy-naïve open radical cystectomy delay and perioperative transfusion on the recurrence-free survival: A perioperative parameters-based nomogram
title_full_unstemmed The impact of chemotherapy-naïve open radical cystectomy delay and perioperative transfusion on the recurrence-free survival: A perioperative parameters-based nomogram
title_short The impact of chemotherapy-naïve open radical cystectomy delay and perioperative transfusion on the recurrence-free survival: A perioperative parameters-based nomogram
title_sort impact of chemotherapy naive open radical cystectomy delay and perioperative transfusion on the recurrence free survival a perioperative parameters based nomogram
topic Radical cystectomy
Blood transfusion
Time to radical cystectomy
Survival
Nomogram
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214388222001321
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