Changes to Atmospheric River Related Extremes Over the United States West Coast Under Anthropogenic Warming
Abstract Despite advances in our understanding of changes to severe weather events due to climate change, uncertainty regarding rare extreme events persists. Atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are directly responsible for the majority of precipitation extremes on the US West Coast, are projected to int...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112237 |
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| _version_ | 1850187534437449728 |
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| author | Timothy B. Higgins Aneesh C. Subramanian Peter A. G. Watson Sarah Sparrow |
| author_facet | Timothy B. Higgins Aneesh C. Subramanian Peter A. G. Watson Sarah Sparrow |
| author_sort | Timothy B. Higgins |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Despite advances in our understanding of changes to severe weather events due to climate change, uncertainty regarding rare extreme events persists. Atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are directly responsible for the majority of precipitation extremes on the US West Coast, are projected to intensify in a warming world. In this study, we utilize two unique large‐ensemble climate models to examine rare extreme AR events under various warming scenarios. By quantifying changes to rare extremes, we can gain some insight into the potential for these destructive unprecedented events to occur in the future. Additionally, the abundance of data used in this study enables changes to both seasonal extreme AR occurrences and changes to extremes during various synoptic‐scale flow patterns to be explored. From this analysis, we find substantial changes to AR extremes under even mild warming scenarios with disproportionately large changes during weather regimes that are conducive to AR activity. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4fe2cc5e9f8d4c97a3d4ab48cdf780e2 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-4fe2cc5e9f8d4c97a3d4ab48cdf780e22025-08-20T02:16:05ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-03-01525n/an/a10.1029/2024GL112237Changes to Atmospheric River Related Extremes Over the United States West Coast Under Anthropogenic WarmingTimothy B. Higgins0Aneesh C. Subramanian1Peter A. G. Watson2Sarah Sparrow3Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Colorado Boulder Boulder CO USADepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Colorado Boulder Boulder CO USASchool of Geographical Sciences University of Bristol Bristol UKDepartment of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics Oxford University Oxford UKAbstract Despite advances in our understanding of changes to severe weather events due to climate change, uncertainty regarding rare extreme events persists. Atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are directly responsible for the majority of precipitation extremes on the US West Coast, are projected to intensify in a warming world. In this study, we utilize two unique large‐ensemble climate models to examine rare extreme AR events under various warming scenarios. By quantifying changes to rare extremes, we can gain some insight into the potential for these destructive unprecedented events to occur in the future. Additionally, the abundance of data used in this study enables changes to both seasonal extreme AR occurrences and changes to extremes during various synoptic‐scale flow patterns to be explored. From this analysis, we find substantial changes to AR extremes under even mild warming scenarios with disproportionately large changes during weather regimes that are conducive to AR activity.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112237 |
| spellingShingle | Timothy B. Higgins Aneesh C. Subramanian Peter A. G. Watson Sarah Sparrow Changes to Atmospheric River Related Extremes Over the United States West Coast Under Anthropogenic Warming Geophysical Research Letters |
| title | Changes to Atmospheric River Related Extremes Over the United States West Coast Under Anthropogenic Warming |
| title_full | Changes to Atmospheric River Related Extremes Over the United States West Coast Under Anthropogenic Warming |
| title_fullStr | Changes to Atmospheric River Related Extremes Over the United States West Coast Under Anthropogenic Warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Changes to Atmospheric River Related Extremes Over the United States West Coast Under Anthropogenic Warming |
| title_short | Changes to Atmospheric River Related Extremes Over the United States West Coast Under Anthropogenic Warming |
| title_sort | changes to atmospheric river related extremes over the united states west coast under anthropogenic warming |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112237 |
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