Climate change rivals fertilizer use in driving soil nitrous oxide emissions in the northern high latitudes: Insights from terrestrial biosphere models
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the most important stratospheric ozone-depleting agent based on current emissions and the third largest contributor to increased net radiative forcing. Increases in atmospheric N2O have been attributed primarily to enhanced soil N2O emissions. Critically, contributions from so...
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Elsevier
2025-02-01
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| author | Naiqing Pan Hanqin Tian Hao Shi Shufen Pan Josep G. Canadell Jinfeng Chang Philippe Ciais Eric A. Davidson Gustaf Hugelius Akihiko Ito Robert B. Jackson Fortunat Joos Sebastian Lienert Dylan B. Millet Stefan Olin Prabir K. Patra Rona L. Thompson Nicolas Vuichard Kelley C. Wells Chris Wilson Yongfa You Sönke Zaehle |
| author_facet | Naiqing Pan Hanqin Tian Hao Shi Shufen Pan Josep G. Canadell Jinfeng Chang Philippe Ciais Eric A. Davidson Gustaf Hugelius Akihiko Ito Robert B. Jackson Fortunat Joos Sebastian Lienert Dylan B. Millet Stefan Olin Prabir K. Patra Rona L. Thompson Nicolas Vuichard Kelley C. Wells Chris Wilson Yongfa You Sönke Zaehle |
| author_sort | Naiqing Pan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the most important stratospheric ozone-depleting agent based on current emissions and the third largest contributor to increased net radiative forcing. Increases in atmospheric N2O have been attributed primarily to enhanced soil N2O emissions. Critically, contributions from soils in the Northern High Latitudes (NHL, >50°N) remain poorly quantified despite their exposure to rapid rates of regional warming and changing hydrology due to climate change. In this study, we used an ensemble of six process-based terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) from the Global Nitrogen/Nitrous Oxide Model Intercomparison Project (NMIP) to quantify soil N2O emissions across the NHL during 1861–2016. Factorial simulations were conducted to disentangle the contributions of key driving factors, including climate change, nitrogen inputs, land use change, and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, to the trends in emissions. The NMIP models suggests NHL soil N2O emissions doubled from 1861 to 2016, increasing on average by 2.0 ± 1.0 Gg N/yr (p < 0.01). Over the entire study period, while N fertilizer application (42 ± 20 %) contributed the largest share to the increase in NHL soil emissions, climate change effect was comparable (37 ± 25 %), underscoring its significant role. In the recent decade (2007–2016), anthropogenic sources contributed 47 ± 17 % (279 ± 156 Gg N/yr) of the total N2O emissions from the NHL, while unmanaged soils contributed a comparable amount (290 ± 142 Gg N/yr). The trend of increasing emissions from nitrogen fertilizer reversed after the 1980 s because of reduced applications in non-permafrost regions. In addition, increased plant growth due to CO2 fertilization suppressed simulated emissions. However, permafrost soil N2O emissions continued increasing attributable to climate warming; the interaction of climate warming and increasing CO2 concentrations on nitrogen and carbon cycling will determine future trends in NHL soil N2O emissions. The rigorous interplay between process modeling and field experimentation will be essential for improving model representations of the mechanisms controlling N2O fluxes in the Northern High Latitudes and for reducing associated uncertainties. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4fcc81b6b673432d913663fa221b9616 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0160-4120 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
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| series | Environment International |
| spelling | doaj-art-4fcc81b6b673432d913663fa221b96162025-02-06T05:10:58ZengElsevierEnvironment International0160-41202025-02-01196109297Climate change rivals fertilizer use in driving soil nitrous oxide emissions in the northern high latitudes: Insights from terrestrial biosphere modelsNaiqing Pan0Hanqin Tian1Hao Shi2Shufen Pan3Josep G. Canadell4Jinfeng Chang5Philippe Ciais6Eric A. Davidson7Gustaf Hugelius8Akihiko Ito9Robert B. Jackson10Fortunat Joos11Sebastian Lienert12Dylan B. Millet13Stefan Olin14Prabir K. Patra15Rona L. Thompson16Nicolas Vuichard17Kelley C. Wells18Chris Wilson19Yongfa You20Sönke Zaehle21Center for Earth System Science and Global Sustainability, Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USACenter for Earth System Science and Global Sustainability, Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA; Corresponding author at: Center for Earth System Science and Global Sustainability, Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA.State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaCenter for Earth System Science and Global Sustainability, Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA; Department of Engineering and Environmental Studies Program, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USAGlobal Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, AustraliaCollege of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, ChinaLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE, CEA CNRS, UVSQ UPSACLAY, Gif sur Yvette, FranceAppalachian Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Frostburg, MD, USADepartment of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SwedenThe University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JapanDepartment of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment, Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USAClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandDepartment of Soil, Water, and Climate, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USADepartment of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, SwedenResearch Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, JapanNorsk Institutt for Luftforskning, NILU, Kjeller, NorwayLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE, CEA CNRS, UVSQ UPSACLAY, Gif sur Yvette, FranceDepartment of Soil, Water, and Climate, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USANational Centre for Earth Observation, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK; Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth & Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UKCenter for Earth System Science and Global Sustainability, Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USAMax Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, GermanyNitrous oxide (N2O) is the most important stratospheric ozone-depleting agent based on current emissions and the third largest contributor to increased net radiative forcing. Increases in atmospheric N2O have been attributed primarily to enhanced soil N2O emissions. Critically, contributions from soils in the Northern High Latitudes (NHL, >50°N) remain poorly quantified despite their exposure to rapid rates of regional warming and changing hydrology due to climate change. In this study, we used an ensemble of six process-based terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) from the Global Nitrogen/Nitrous Oxide Model Intercomparison Project (NMIP) to quantify soil N2O emissions across the NHL during 1861–2016. Factorial simulations were conducted to disentangle the contributions of key driving factors, including climate change, nitrogen inputs, land use change, and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, to the trends in emissions. The NMIP models suggests NHL soil N2O emissions doubled from 1861 to 2016, increasing on average by 2.0 ± 1.0 Gg N/yr (p < 0.01). Over the entire study period, while N fertilizer application (42 ± 20 %) contributed the largest share to the increase in NHL soil emissions, climate change effect was comparable (37 ± 25 %), underscoring its significant role. In the recent decade (2007–2016), anthropogenic sources contributed 47 ± 17 % (279 ± 156 Gg N/yr) of the total N2O emissions from the NHL, while unmanaged soils contributed a comparable amount (290 ± 142 Gg N/yr). The trend of increasing emissions from nitrogen fertilizer reversed after the 1980 s because of reduced applications in non-permafrost regions. In addition, increased plant growth due to CO2 fertilization suppressed simulated emissions. However, permafrost soil N2O emissions continued increasing attributable to climate warming; the interaction of climate warming and increasing CO2 concentrations on nitrogen and carbon cycling will determine future trends in NHL soil N2O emissions. The rigorous interplay between process modeling and field experimentation will be essential for improving model representations of the mechanisms controlling N2O fluxes in the Northern High Latitudes and for reducing associated uncertainties.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412025000480Nitrous oxideNorthern high latitudesClimate changeAnthropogenic activitiesModel ensemble estimationPermafrost |
| spellingShingle | Naiqing Pan Hanqin Tian Hao Shi Shufen Pan Josep G. Canadell Jinfeng Chang Philippe Ciais Eric A. Davidson Gustaf Hugelius Akihiko Ito Robert B. Jackson Fortunat Joos Sebastian Lienert Dylan B. Millet Stefan Olin Prabir K. Patra Rona L. Thompson Nicolas Vuichard Kelley C. Wells Chris Wilson Yongfa You Sönke Zaehle Climate change rivals fertilizer use in driving soil nitrous oxide emissions in the northern high latitudes: Insights from terrestrial biosphere models Environment International Nitrous oxide Northern high latitudes Climate change Anthropogenic activities Model ensemble estimation Permafrost |
| title | Climate change rivals fertilizer use in driving soil nitrous oxide emissions in the northern high latitudes: Insights from terrestrial biosphere models |
| title_full | Climate change rivals fertilizer use in driving soil nitrous oxide emissions in the northern high latitudes: Insights from terrestrial biosphere models |
| title_fullStr | Climate change rivals fertilizer use in driving soil nitrous oxide emissions in the northern high latitudes: Insights from terrestrial biosphere models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change rivals fertilizer use in driving soil nitrous oxide emissions in the northern high latitudes: Insights from terrestrial biosphere models |
| title_short | Climate change rivals fertilizer use in driving soil nitrous oxide emissions in the northern high latitudes: Insights from terrestrial biosphere models |
| title_sort | climate change rivals fertilizer use in driving soil nitrous oxide emissions in the northern high latitudes insights from terrestrial biosphere models |
| topic | Nitrous oxide Northern high latitudes Climate change Anthropogenic activities Model ensemble estimation Permafrost |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412025000480 |
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