Bias in Discontinuous Elevational Transects for Tracking Species Range Shifts
Climate change is compelling species to seek refuge at higher elevations and latitudes. While researchers commonly study these migrations using discontinuous elevational transects, this methodology may introduce significant biases into our understanding of species movement. These potential biases co...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Plants |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/14/2/283 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832587637732409344 |
|---|---|
| author | Shixuan Li Jiannan Yao Yang Lin Siyu Wu Zhongjie Yang Chao Jin Yuhan Zhang Zhen Wang Jinliang Liu Guochun Shen Mingjian Yu |
| author_facet | Shixuan Li Jiannan Yao Yang Lin Siyu Wu Zhongjie Yang Chao Jin Yuhan Zhang Zhen Wang Jinliang Liu Guochun Shen Mingjian Yu |
| author_sort | Shixuan Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change is compelling species to seek refuge at higher elevations and latitudes. While researchers commonly study these migrations using discontinuous elevational transects, this methodology may introduce significant biases into our understanding of species movement. These potential biases could lead to flawed biodiversity conservation policies if left unexamined. To address this concern, we utilized species distribution data from a novel continuous elevational transect to evaluate the accuracy of discontinuous transect methods. Our analysis focused on how quadrat spacing and survey time intervals affect bias in estimating species range shifts. The results were striking: the widely used settings for discontinuous transects failed to detect 7.2% of species, inaccurately estimated shift distances for 78% of species, and produced an overall error rate of 86%. Wider quadrat spacing increased these error rates, while longer survey intervals generally reduced them. Moreover, discontinuous transects consistently underestimated species shift distances, with this underestimation becoming more pronounced over longer survey periods. Our pioneering assessment of bias in discontinuous elevational transects demonstrates that a 50 m quadrat spacing combined with a 60-year survey interval optimizes monitoring species range shifts for conservation planning. This baseline protocol could be further strengthened through supplementary, frequent surveys targeting high-elevation species—a strategic approach that maximizes accuracy while maintaining cost-effectiveness. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4be1fcc65f2340f3b34223607056d706 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2223-7747 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Plants |
| spelling | doaj-art-4be1fcc65f2340f3b34223607056d7062025-01-24T13:47:06ZengMDPI AGPlants2223-77472025-01-0114228310.3390/plants14020283Bias in Discontinuous Elevational Transects for Tracking Species Range ShiftsShixuan Li0Jiannan Yao1Yang Lin2Siyu Wu3Zhongjie Yang4Chao Jin5Yuhan Zhang6Zhen Wang7Jinliang Liu8Guochun Shen9Mingjian Yu10Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, ChinaZhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, ChinaCollege of Life Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, ChinaZhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, ChinaCollege of Life Sciences, China Jiliang University, Hangzhou 310018, ChinaZhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, ChinaCollege of Life Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, ChinaCollege of Life Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, ChinaCollege of Life and Environmental Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, ChinaZhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, ChinaCollege of Life Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, ChinaClimate change is compelling species to seek refuge at higher elevations and latitudes. While researchers commonly study these migrations using discontinuous elevational transects, this methodology may introduce significant biases into our understanding of species movement. These potential biases could lead to flawed biodiversity conservation policies if left unexamined. To address this concern, we utilized species distribution data from a novel continuous elevational transect to evaluate the accuracy of discontinuous transect methods. Our analysis focused on how quadrat spacing and survey time intervals affect bias in estimating species range shifts. The results were striking: the widely used settings for discontinuous transects failed to detect 7.2% of species, inaccurately estimated shift distances for 78% of species, and produced an overall error rate of 86%. Wider quadrat spacing increased these error rates, while longer survey intervals generally reduced them. Moreover, discontinuous transects consistently underestimated species shift distances, with this underestimation becoming more pronounced over longer survey periods. Our pioneering assessment of bias in discontinuous elevational transects demonstrates that a 50 m quadrat spacing combined with a 60-year survey interval optimizes monitoring species range shifts for conservation planning. This baseline protocol could be further strengthened through supplementary, frequent surveys targeting high-elevation species—a strategic approach that maximizes accuracy while maintaining cost-effectiveness.https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/14/2/283species migrationspecies distribution rangewoody plantaltitudinal transectestimation bias |
| spellingShingle | Shixuan Li Jiannan Yao Yang Lin Siyu Wu Zhongjie Yang Chao Jin Yuhan Zhang Zhen Wang Jinliang Liu Guochun Shen Mingjian Yu Bias in Discontinuous Elevational Transects for Tracking Species Range Shifts Plants species migration species distribution range woody plant altitudinal transect estimation bias |
| title | Bias in Discontinuous Elevational Transects for Tracking Species Range Shifts |
| title_full | Bias in Discontinuous Elevational Transects for Tracking Species Range Shifts |
| title_fullStr | Bias in Discontinuous Elevational Transects for Tracking Species Range Shifts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Bias in Discontinuous Elevational Transects for Tracking Species Range Shifts |
| title_short | Bias in Discontinuous Elevational Transects for Tracking Species Range Shifts |
| title_sort | bias in discontinuous elevational transects for tracking species range shifts |
| topic | species migration species distribution range woody plant altitudinal transect estimation bias |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/14/2/283 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT shixuanli biasindiscontinuouselevationaltransectsfortrackingspeciesrangeshifts AT jiannanyao biasindiscontinuouselevationaltransectsfortrackingspeciesrangeshifts AT yanglin biasindiscontinuouselevationaltransectsfortrackingspeciesrangeshifts AT siyuwu biasindiscontinuouselevationaltransectsfortrackingspeciesrangeshifts AT zhongjieyang biasindiscontinuouselevationaltransectsfortrackingspeciesrangeshifts AT chaojin biasindiscontinuouselevationaltransectsfortrackingspeciesrangeshifts AT yuhanzhang biasindiscontinuouselevationaltransectsfortrackingspeciesrangeshifts AT zhenwang biasindiscontinuouselevationaltransectsfortrackingspeciesrangeshifts AT jinliangliu biasindiscontinuouselevationaltransectsfortrackingspeciesrangeshifts AT guochunshen biasindiscontinuouselevationaltransectsfortrackingspeciesrangeshifts AT mingjianyu biasindiscontinuouselevationaltransectsfortrackingspeciesrangeshifts |