Le couple anticipation/décision aux prises avec l’exceptionnel, l’imprévu et l’incertitude
Anticipation and decision-making in crisis situations are subject of numerous studies that highlight the polysemy of these concepts as well as the difficulties regularly encountered during their implementation (context of uncertainty, format and circulation of information, different perceptions of t...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fra |
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Pôle de Recherche pour l'Organisation et la diffusion de l'Information Géographique
2020-04-01
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| Series: | EchoGéo |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journals.openedition.org/echogeo/18949 |
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| Summary: | Anticipation and decision-making in crisis situations are subject of numerous studies that highlight the polysemy of these concepts as well as the difficulties regularly encountered during their implementation (context of uncertainty, format and circulation of information, different perceptions of the situation between actors and geographical scales, etc.). Through two case studies located during the Irma-José-Maria crisis, one observed in the National French Crisis Center and the other experienced by a government operator, at a more regional level, this article illustrates these obstacles and highlights the fragmentation of the anticipation/decision couple in the practice of the different ORSEC levels. It appears that the lack of a shared vision within and between the crisis units on the nature, time horizon and methodological framework of the anticipation function were as many obstacles to its effective implementation during the cyclone sequence. This situation is due in particular to the co-existence of different ministerial cultures of anticipation. As time appears to be a structuring and critical element of an adaptive and shared anticipatory approach, the authors argue for an understanding of the anticipation/decision-making relationship in terms of a continuum, assuming the plurality of cultures and integrating all temporalities. |
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| ISSN: | 1963-1197 |