A Time-Varying Coupling Analysis of Expressway Traffic Volume and Manufacturing PMI
This study investigates the time-varying coupling relationship between expressway traffic volume and manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI). First, for the traffic volume and manufacturing PMI time-series data, unit root stability test and Johansen cointegration test are applied to determine t...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/8836324 |
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| _version_ | 1832549787508932608 |
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| author | Shuo Sun Mingchen Gu Yingping Wang Rongjie Lin Lifeng Xing Zhiyuan Xu |
| author_facet | Shuo Sun Mingchen Gu Yingping Wang Rongjie Lin Lifeng Xing Zhiyuan Xu |
| author_sort | Shuo Sun |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study investigates the time-varying coupling relationship between expressway traffic volume and manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI). First, for the traffic volume and manufacturing PMI time-series data, unit root stability test and Johansen cointegration test are applied to determine the stability of single sequence and the long-term stable correlation between variables, respectively. Then, a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TVP-VAR) is developed to quantify the time-varying correlation between variables. The time-varying parameters of TVP-VAR are estimated using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) theory. Finally, the model is validated using examples from China. In the numeric example, three variables, i.e., expressway car traffic volume, expressway truck traffic volume, and manufacturing PMI, are selected for analysis. Results show that there is a positive interaction between expressway traffic volume (both car and truck) and manufacturing PMI. Express traffic volume slowly promotes the development of manufacturing industry. However, with the reform policy of road freight structure in China, the promotion effect of truck traffic on manufacturing PMI in the past two years has decreased significantly. Moreover, as affected by the China demand-led economic development model in recent years, the stimulus effect of manufacturing PMI on expressway passenger traffic volume has increased year by year. And, while the expressway freight structure remains stable, truck traffic volume is hardly affected by fluctuations in manufacturing PMI. These research results are helpful for policy makers to understand the time-varying coupling relationship between expressway traffic volume and manufacturing development and finally to improve the expressway management level. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4832ca2b53be4f96a4e4bd242736b3c1 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0197-6729 2042-3195 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| spelling | doaj-art-4832ca2b53be4f96a4e4bd242736b3c12025-02-03T06:08:33ZengWileyJournal of Advanced Transportation0197-67292042-31952021-01-01202110.1155/2021/88363248836324A Time-Varying Coupling Analysis of Expressway Traffic Volume and Manufacturing PMIShuo Sun0Mingchen Gu1Yingping Wang2Rongjie Lin3Lifeng Xing4Zhiyuan Xu5Transport Planning and Research Institute, Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100028, ChinaTransport Planning and Research Institute, Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100028, ChinaTransport Planning and Research Institute, Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100028, ChinaTransport Planning and Research Institute, Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100028, ChinaTransport Planning and Research Institute, Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100028, ChinaTransport Planning and Research Institute, Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100028, ChinaThis study investigates the time-varying coupling relationship between expressway traffic volume and manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI). First, for the traffic volume and manufacturing PMI time-series data, unit root stability test and Johansen cointegration test are applied to determine the stability of single sequence and the long-term stable correlation between variables, respectively. Then, a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TVP-VAR) is developed to quantify the time-varying correlation between variables. The time-varying parameters of TVP-VAR are estimated using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) theory. Finally, the model is validated using examples from China. In the numeric example, three variables, i.e., expressway car traffic volume, expressway truck traffic volume, and manufacturing PMI, are selected for analysis. Results show that there is a positive interaction between expressway traffic volume (both car and truck) and manufacturing PMI. Express traffic volume slowly promotes the development of manufacturing industry. However, with the reform policy of road freight structure in China, the promotion effect of truck traffic on manufacturing PMI in the past two years has decreased significantly. Moreover, as affected by the China demand-led economic development model in recent years, the stimulus effect of manufacturing PMI on expressway passenger traffic volume has increased year by year. And, while the expressway freight structure remains stable, truck traffic volume is hardly affected by fluctuations in manufacturing PMI. These research results are helpful for policy makers to understand the time-varying coupling relationship between expressway traffic volume and manufacturing development and finally to improve the expressway management level.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/8836324 |
| spellingShingle | Shuo Sun Mingchen Gu Yingping Wang Rongjie Lin Lifeng Xing Zhiyuan Xu A Time-Varying Coupling Analysis of Expressway Traffic Volume and Manufacturing PMI Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| title | A Time-Varying Coupling Analysis of Expressway Traffic Volume and Manufacturing PMI |
| title_full | A Time-Varying Coupling Analysis of Expressway Traffic Volume and Manufacturing PMI |
| title_fullStr | A Time-Varying Coupling Analysis of Expressway Traffic Volume and Manufacturing PMI |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Time-Varying Coupling Analysis of Expressway Traffic Volume and Manufacturing PMI |
| title_short | A Time-Varying Coupling Analysis of Expressway Traffic Volume and Manufacturing PMI |
| title_sort | time varying coupling analysis of expressway traffic volume and manufacturing pmi |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/8836324 |
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