An age-structured model for the coupled dynamics of HIV and HSV-2
Evidence suggests a strong correlation between the prevalence of HSV-2 (genital herpes) and the perseverance of the HIV epidemic. HSV-2 is an incurable viral infection, characterized by periodic reactivation. We construct a model of the co-infection dynamics between the two diseases by incorporating...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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AIMS Press
2015-03-01
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| Series: | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
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| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2015.12.803 |
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| author | Georgi Kapitanov Christina Alvey Katia Vogt-Geisse Zhilan Feng |
| author_facet | Georgi Kapitanov Christina Alvey Katia Vogt-Geisse Zhilan Feng |
| author_sort | Georgi Kapitanov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Evidence suggests a strong correlation between the prevalence of HSV-2 (genital herpes) and the perseverance of the HIV epidemic. HSV-2 is an incurable viral infection, characterized by periodic reactivation. We construct a model of the co-infection dynamics between the two diseases by incorporating a time-since-infection variable to track the alternating periods of infectiousness of HSV-2. The model considers only heterosexual relationships and distinguishes three population groups: males, general population females, and female sex workers. We calculate the basic reproduction numbers for each disease that provide threshold conditions, which determine whether a disease dies out or becomes endemic in the absence of the other disease. We also derive the invasion reproduction numbers that determine whether or not a disease can invade into a population in which the other disease is endemic. The calculations of the invasion reproduction numbers suggest a new aspect in their interpretation - the class from which the initial disease carrier arises is important for understanding the invasion dynamics and biological interpretation of the expressions of the reproduction numbers. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the role of model parameters in influencing the model outcomes. The results are discussed in the last section. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-466645e77c8a48469a08c4e5da5d9adc |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1551-0018 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2015-03-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-466645e77c8a48469a08c4e5da5d9adc2025-01-24T02:32:12ZengAIMS PressMathematical Biosciences and Engineering1551-00182015-03-0112480384010.3934/mbe.2015.12.803An age-structured model for the coupled dynamics of HIV and HSV-2Georgi Kapitanov0Christina Alvey1Katia Vogt-Geisse2Zhilan Feng3Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, 150 N. University Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2067Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, 150 N. University Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2067Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, 150 N. University Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2067Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, 150 N. University Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2067Evidence suggests a strong correlation between the prevalence of HSV-2 (genital herpes) and the perseverance of the HIV epidemic. HSV-2 is an incurable viral infection, characterized by periodic reactivation. We construct a model of the co-infection dynamics between the two diseases by incorporating a time-since-infection variable to track the alternating periods of infectiousness of HSV-2. The model considers only heterosexual relationships and distinguishes three population groups: males, general population females, and female sex workers. We calculate the basic reproduction numbers for each disease that provide threshold conditions, which determine whether a disease dies out or becomes endemic in the absence of the other disease. We also derive the invasion reproduction numbers that determine whether or not a disease can invade into a population in which the other disease is endemic. The calculations of the invasion reproduction numbers suggest a new aspect in their interpretation - the class from which the initial disease carrier arises is important for understanding the invasion dynamics and biological interpretation of the expressions of the reproduction numbers. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the role of model parameters in influencing the model outcomes. The results are discussed in the last section.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2015.12.803basic reproduction numberage-structurepartial differential equationsco-infectioninvasion reproduction numberhsv-2sexually transmitted diseases.population dynamicsmathematical epidemiologyhivsensitivity analysis |
| spellingShingle | Georgi Kapitanov Christina Alvey Katia Vogt-Geisse Zhilan Feng An age-structured model for the coupled dynamics of HIV and HSV-2 Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering basic reproduction number age-structure partial differential equations co-infection invasion reproduction number hsv-2 sexually transmitted diseases. population dynamics mathematical epidemiology hiv sensitivity analysis |
| title | An age-structured model for the coupled dynamics of HIV and HSV-2 |
| title_full | An age-structured model for the coupled dynamics of HIV and HSV-2 |
| title_fullStr | An age-structured model for the coupled dynamics of HIV and HSV-2 |
| title_full_unstemmed | An age-structured model for the coupled dynamics of HIV and HSV-2 |
| title_short | An age-structured model for the coupled dynamics of HIV and HSV-2 |
| title_sort | age structured model for the coupled dynamics of hiv and hsv 2 |
| topic | basic reproduction number age-structure partial differential equations co-infection invasion reproduction number hsv-2 sexually transmitted diseases. population dynamics mathematical epidemiology hiv sensitivity analysis |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2015.12.803 |
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