Ensemble Hydrometeorological Forecasts Using WRF Hourly QPF and TopModel for a Middle Watershed
Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) were obtained from ensembles of the weather and research forecasting (WRF) model for the Iguaçu river watershed (IRW) in southern Brazil. Thirty-two rainfall events between 2005 and 2010 were simulated with ten configurations of WRF. These rainfall events...
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| Format: | Article |
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Wiley
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/484120 |
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| author | Leonardo Calvetti Augusto José Pereira Filho |
| author_facet | Leonardo Calvetti Augusto José Pereira Filho |
| author_sort | Leonardo Calvetti |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) were obtained from ensembles of the weather and research forecasting (WRF) model for the Iguaçu river watershed (IRW) in southern Brazil. Thirty-two rainfall events between 2005 and 2010 were simulated with ten configurations of WRF. These rainfall events range from local to synoptic scale convection and caused a significant increase in the level of the Iguaçu river. In the average, the ensembles yielded up to 20% better skill than single WRF forecasts for the events analyzed. WRF ensembles also allow estimating the predictability through the dispersion of the forecasts providing relevant information for decision-making. Phase errors of ensemble forecasts are larger than amplitude errors. More complex microphysics parameterizations yielded better QPFs with smaller phase errors. QPFs were fed to IRW hydrological model with similar phase and amplitude errors. It is suggested that lagged QPFs might reduce phase errors. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3e2a2d6bc2e0437781b59d66ba9c392d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
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| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-3e2a2d6bc2e0437781b59d66ba9c392d2025-02-03T00:59:20ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172014-01-01201410.1155/2014/484120484120Ensemble Hydrometeorological Forecasts Using WRF Hourly QPF and TopModel for a Middle WatershedLeonardo Calvetti0Augusto José Pereira Filho1Institute of Meteorology of Paraná, (SIMEPAR), Rua Francisco H. dos Santos 210, 81531-980 Curitiba, PR, BrazilDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of São Paulo, 05508-090 São Paulo, SP, BrazilQuantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) were obtained from ensembles of the weather and research forecasting (WRF) model for the Iguaçu river watershed (IRW) in southern Brazil. Thirty-two rainfall events between 2005 and 2010 were simulated with ten configurations of WRF. These rainfall events range from local to synoptic scale convection and caused a significant increase in the level of the Iguaçu river. In the average, the ensembles yielded up to 20% better skill than single WRF forecasts for the events analyzed. WRF ensembles also allow estimating the predictability through the dispersion of the forecasts providing relevant information for decision-making. Phase errors of ensemble forecasts are larger than amplitude errors. More complex microphysics parameterizations yielded better QPFs with smaller phase errors. QPFs were fed to IRW hydrological model with similar phase and amplitude errors. It is suggested that lagged QPFs might reduce phase errors.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/484120 |
| spellingShingle | Leonardo Calvetti Augusto José Pereira Filho Ensemble Hydrometeorological Forecasts Using WRF Hourly QPF and TopModel for a Middle Watershed Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Ensemble Hydrometeorological Forecasts Using WRF Hourly QPF and TopModel for a Middle Watershed |
| title_full | Ensemble Hydrometeorological Forecasts Using WRF Hourly QPF and TopModel for a Middle Watershed |
| title_fullStr | Ensemble Hydrometeorological Forecasts Using WRF Hourly QPF and TopModel for a Middle Watershed |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ensemble Hydrometeorological Forecasts Using WRF Hourly QPF and TopModel for a Middle Watershed |
| title_short | Ensemble Hydrometeorological Forecasts Using WRF Hourly QPF and TopModel for a Middle Watershed |
| title_sort | ensemble hydrometeorological forecasts using wrf hourly qpf and topmodel for a middle watershed |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/484120 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT leonardocalvetti ensemblehydrometeorologicalforecastsusingwrfhourlyqpfandtopmodelforamiddlewatershed AT augustojosepereirafilho ensemblehydrometeorologicalforecastsusingwrfhourlyqpfandtopmodelforamiddlewatershed |