Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening
Abstract Compound soil drought and heat extremes are expected to occur more frequently with global warming, causing wide-ranging socio-ecological repercussions. Vegetation modulates air temperature and soil moisture through biophysical processes, thereby influencing the occurrence of such extremes....
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Nature Portfolio
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55175-0 |
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| author | Jun Li Yao Zhang Emanuele Bevacqua Jakob Zscheischler Trevor F. Keenan Xu Lian Sha Zhou Hongying Zhang Mingzhu He Shilong Piao |
| author_facet | Jun Li Yao Zhang Emanuele Bevacqua Jakob Zscheischler Trevor F. Keenan Xu Lian Sha Zhou Hongying Zhang Mingzhu He Shilong Piao |
| author_sort | Jun Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Compound soil drought and heat extremes are expected to occur more frequently with global warming, causing wide-ranging socio-ecological repercussions. Vegetation modulates air temperature and soil moisture through biophysical processes, thereby influencing the occurrence of such extremes. Global vegetation cover is broadly expected to increase under climate change, but it remains unclear whether vegetation greening will alleviate or aggravate future increases in compound soil drought-heat events. Here, using a suite of state-of-the-art model simulations, we show that the projected vegetation greening will increase the frequency of global compound soil drought-heat events, equivalent to 12–21% of the total increment at the end of 21st century. This increase is predominantly driven by reduced albedo and enhanced transpiration associated with increased leaf area. Although greening-induced transpiration enhancement has counteracting cooling and drying effects, the excessive water loss in the early growing season can lead to later soil moisture deficits, amplifying compound soil drought-heat extremes during the subsequent warm season. These changes are most pronounced in northern high latitudes and are dominated by the warming effect of CO2. Our study highlights the necessity of integrating vegetation biophysical effects into mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing compound climate risks. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3db4e6980b5e41618fdc9cfbafe29097 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-3db4e6980b5e41618fdc9cfbafe290972025-01-19T12:29:39ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232024-12-0115111210.1038/s41467-024-55175-0Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greeningJun Li0Yao Zhang1Emanuele Bevacqua2Jakob Zscheischler3Trevor F. Keenan4Xu Lian5Sha Zhou6Hongying Zhang7Mingzhu He8Shilong Piao9Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking UniversityInstitute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking UniversityDepartment of Compound Environmental Risks, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZDepartment of Compound Environmental Risks, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZEarth and Environmental Sciences Area, Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryDepartment of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia UniversityState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal UniversityInstitute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking UniversityInstitute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking UniversityInstitute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking UniversityAbstract Compound soil drought and heat extremes are expected to occur more frequently with global warming, causing wide-ranging socio-ecological repercussions. Vegetation modulates air temperature and soil moisture through biophysical processes, thereby influencing the occurrence of such extremes. Global vegetation cover is broadly expected to increase under climate change, but it remains unclear whether vegetation greening will alleviate or aggravate future increases in compound soil drought-heat events. Here, using a suite of state-of-the-art model simulations, we show that the projected vegetation greening will increase the frequency of global compound soil drought-heat events, equivalent to 12–21% of the total increment at the end of 21st century. This increase is predominantly driven by reduced albedo and enhanced transpiration associated with increased leaf area. Although greening-induced transpiration enhancement has counteracting cooling and drying effects, the excessive water loss in the early growing season can lead to later soil moisture deficits, amplifying compound soil drought-heat extremes during the subsequent warm season. These changes are most pronounced in northern high latitudes and are dominated by the warming effect of CO2. Our study highlights the necessity of integrating vegetation biophysical effects into mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing compound climate risks.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55175-0 |
| spellingShingle | Jun Li Yao Zhang Emanuele Bevacqua Jakob Zscheischler Trevor F. Keenan Xu Lian Sha Zhou Hongying Zhang Mingzhu He Shilong Piao Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening Nature Communications |
| title | Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening |
| title_full | Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening |
| title_fullStr | Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening |
| title_short | Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening |
| title_sort | future increase in compound soil drought heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55175-0 |
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