Time-periodic dynamics in COVID-19 transmission considering the impact of population disbelief and fear
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has spurred an urgent need for advanced modeling approaches to understand the complex dynamics of disease transmission. Our model utilizes a system of differential equations that incorporates the impact of both contagious fear and contagious disbelief surrounding the di...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Scientific African |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468227625000365 |
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| author | Mahmoud A. Ibrahim Attila Dénes |
| author_facet | Mahmoud A. Ibrahim Attila Dénes |
| author_sort | Mahmoud A. Ibrahim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has spurred an urgent need for advanced modeling approaches to understand the complex dynamics of disease transmission. Our model utilizes a system of differential equations that incorporates the impact of both contagious fear and contagious disbelief surrounding the disease on its transmission dynamics. This study presents a time-periodic compartmental model, integrating insights from recent research on time-varying transmission rates. We define the basic reproduction number (R0), emphasizing its utility as a threshold parameter for global dynamics and periodic solutions. Numerical simulations validate the theoretical findings and provide a nuanced understanding of disease persistence and extinction. The impact of population disbelief and fear on the risk of COVID-19 is investigated, revealing critical insights for public health interventions. The sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number underscores the significance of key parameters in shaping disease dynamics. Our results provide insight into the intricate dynamics of COVID-19 transmission, offering valuable considerations to control the spread of the virus. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3d41dd6c8968444da64800d0a8de3202 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2468-2276 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific African |
| spelling | doaj-art-3d41dd6c8968444da64800d0a8de32022025-02-05T04:32:25ZengElsevierScientific African2468-22762025-03-0127e02565Time-periodic dynamics in COVID-19 transmission considering the impact of population disbelief and fearMahmoud A. Ibrahim0Attila Dénes1Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1., Szeged, 6720, Hungary; Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura, 35516, Egypt; Corresponding author at: Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1., Szeged, 6720, Hungary.Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1., Szeged, 6720, Hungary; National Laboratory for Health Security, Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, HungaryThe ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has spurred an urgent need for advanced modeling approaches to understand the complex dynamics of disease transmission. Our model utilizes a system of differential equations that incorporates the impact of both contagious fear and contagious disbelief surrounding the disease on its transmission dynamics. This study presents a time-periodic compartmental model, integrating insights from recent research on time-varying transmission rates. We define the basic reproduction number (R0), emphasizing its utility as a threshold parameter for global dynamics and periodic solutions. Numerical simulations validate the theoretical findings and provide a nuanced understanding of disease persistence and extinction. The impact of population disbelief and fear on the risk of COVID-19 is investigated, revealing critical insights for public health interventions. The sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number underscores the significance of key parameters in shaping disease dynamics. Our results provide insight into the intricate dynamics of COVID-19 transmission, offering valuable considerations to control the spread of the virus.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468227625000365Compartmental modelCOVID-19Contagious fearContagious disbeliefTime-periodic transmission ratesBasic reproduction number (ℛ0) |
| spellingShingle | Mahmoud A. Ibrahim Attila Dénes Time-periodic dynamics in COVID-19 transmission considering the impact of population disbelief and fear Scientific African Compartmental model COVID-19 Contagious fear Contagious disbelief Time-periodic transmission rates Basic reproduction number (ℛ0) |
| title | Time-periodic dynamics in COVID-19 transmission considering the impact of population disbelief and fear |
| title_full | Time-periodic dynamics in COVID-19 transmission considering the impact of population disbelief and fear |
| title_fullStr | Time-periodic dynamics in COVID-19 transmission considering the impact of population disbelief and fear |
| title_full_unstemmed | Time-periodic dynamics in COVID-19 transmission considering the impact of population disbelief and fear |
| title_short | Time-periodic dynamics in COVID-19 transmission considering the impact of population disbelief and fear |
| title_sort | time periodic dynamics in covid 19 transmission considering the impact of population disbelief and fear |
| topic | Compartmental model COVID-19 Contagious fear Contagious disbelief Time-periodic transmission rates Basic reproduction number (ℛ0) |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468227625000365 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mahmoudaibrahim timeperiodicdynamicsincovid19transmissionconsideringtheimpactofpopulationdisbeliefandfear AT attiladenes timeperiodicdynamicsincovid19transmissionconsideringtheimpactofpopulationdisbeliefandfear |