Simulation of the impacts of projected climate change on groundwater resources in the Urban, Semiarid Yucaipa Valley Watershed, Southern California using an integrated hydrologic model
Managing water resources in semiarid watersheds is challenging due to limited supply and uncertain future climate conditions. This paper examines the impact of future climate changes on an urban watershed in southern California using an integrated hydrologic model. GSFLOW modeling software is used t...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825002861 |
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| author | Derek W. Ryter Ayman H. Alzraiee Richard G. Niswonger |
| author_facet | Derek W. Ryter Ayman H. Alzraiee Richard G. Niswonger |
| author_sort | Derek W. Ryter |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Managing water resources in semiarid watersheds is challenging due to limited supply and uncertain future climate conditions. This paper examines the impact of future climate changes on an urban watershed in southern California using an integrated hydrologic model. GSFLOW modeling software is used to simulate the nonlinear relationships between climate trends and precipitation partitioning into ET, runoff, and subsurface storage. Four global circulation models (GCMs), each with two greenhouse-gas scenarios, RCP45 and RCP85 are used to project future climate conditions. GCMs include the CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5 models. The model's simulated hydrologic conditions are compared with historical data to assess changes in water budgets and groundwater supply. Results indicate decreased groundwater storage in most scenarios due to increased natural evapotranspiration, vegetation consumptive use, and streamflow out of the watershed. Only scenarios with substantially increased future precipitation show increased groundwater storage. The study also highlights increased future aridity despite the rise in precipitation and large precipitation events forecast by GCMs, which increase the risk of urban floods and decrease stream leakage and water available to vegetation. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3d26f8ec1b8f4ce0b5e4a427e076f04d |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj-art-3d26f8ec1b8f4ce0b5e4a427e076f04d2025-08-20T03:08:28ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-08-016010246110.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102461Simulation of the impacts of projected climate change on groundwater resources in the Urban, Semiarid Yucaipa Valley Watershed, Southern California using an integrated hydrologic modelDerek W. Ryter0Ayman H. Alzraiee1Richard G. Niswonger2US Geological Survey, California Water Science Center, USA; Correspondence to: 4165 Spruance Road, Suite 200, San Diego, CA 92101, USAUS Geological Survey, California Water Science Center, USAGSI Environmental Inc., 7595 Irvine Center Drive, Suite 250, Irvine, CA 92618, USAManaging water resources in semiarid watersheds is challenging due to limited supply and uncertain future climate conditions. This paper examines the impact of future climate changes on an urban watershed in southern California using an integrated hydrologic model. GSFLOW modeling software is used to simulate the nonlinear relationships between climate trends and precipitation partitioning into ET, runoff, and subsurface storage. Four global circulation models (GCMs), each with two greenhouse-gas scenarios, RCP45 and RCP85 are used to project future climate conditions. GCMs include the CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5 models. The model's simulated hydrologic conditions are compared with historical data to assess changes in water budgets and groundwater supply. Results indicate decreased groundwater storage in most scenarios due to increased natural evapotranspiration, vegetation consumptive use, and streamflow out of the watershed. Only scenarios with substantially increased future precipitation show increased groundwater storage. The study also highlights increased future aridity despite the rise in precipitation and large precipitation events forecast by GCMs, which increase the risk of urban floods and decrease stream leakage and water available to vegetation.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825002861Integrated modelingGSFLOWFuture climateGroundwater resourcesSemiaridEvapotranspiration |
| spellingShingle | Derek W. Ryter Ayman H. Alzraiee Richard G. Niswonger Simulation of the impacts of projected climate change on groundwater resources in the Urban, Semiarid Yucaipa Valley Watershed, Southern California using an integrated hydrologic model Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Integrated modeling GSFLOW Future climate Groundwater resources Semiarid Evapotranspiration |
| title | Simulation of the impacts of projected climate change on groundwater resources in the Urban, Semiarid Yucaipa Valley Watershed, Southern California using an integrated hydrologic model |
| title_full | Simulation of the impacts of projected climate change on groundwater resources in the Urban, Semiarid Yucaipa Valley Watershed, Southern California using an integrated hydrologic model |
| title_fullStr | Simulation of the impacts of projected climate change on groundwater resources in the Urban, Semiarid Yucaipa Valley Watershed, Southern California using an integrated hydrologic model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulation of the impacts of projected climate change on groundwater resources in the Urban, Semiarid Yucaipa Valley Watershed, Southern California using an integrated hydrologic model |
| title_short | Simulation of the impacts of projected climate change on groundwater resources in the Urban, Semiarid Yucaipa Valley Watershed, Southern California using an integrated hydrologic model |
| title_sort | simulation of the impacts of projected climate change on groundwater resources in the urban semiarid yucaipa valley watershed southern california using an integrated hydrologic model |
| topic | Integrated modeling GSFLOW Future climate Groundwater resources Semiarid Evapotranspiration |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825002861 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT derekwryter simulationoftheimpactsofprojectedclimatechangeongroundwaterresourcesintheurbansemiaridyucaipavalleywatershedsoutherncaliforniausinganintegratedhydrologicmodel AT aymanhalzraiee simulationoftheimpactsofprojectedclimatechangeongroundwaterresourcesintheurbansemiaridyucaipavalleywatershedsoutherncaliforniausinganintegratedhydrologicmodel AT richardgniswonger simulationoftheimpactsofprojectedclimatechangeongroundwaterresourcesintheurbansemiaridyucaipavalleywatershedsoutherncaliforniausinganintegratedhydrologicmodel |