Identifying risk factors and constructing a predictive model for heart failure combined with intracardiac thrombus in non-compaction cardiomyopathy patients
Abstract This study aims to develop a nomogram prediction model for assessing the cardiogenic composite endpoint, which includes intracardiac thrombosis (ICT) combined with heart failure (HF) in patients with non-compaction cardiomyopathy (NCM) patients. We retrospectively analyzed clinical data fro...
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| Format: | Article |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-85902-6 |
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| author | Peizhu Dang Haiyang Wang Xiaowei Huo Zheyong Liang Yongjian Zhang |
| author_facet | Peizhu Dang Haiyang Wang Xiaowei Huo Zheyong Liang Yongjian Zhang |
| author_sort | Peizhu Dang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study aims to develop a nomogram prediction model for assessing the cardiogenic composite endpoint, which includes intracardiac thrombosis (ICT) combined with heart failure (HF) in patients with non-compaction cardiomyopathy (NCM) patients. We retrospectively analyzed clinical data from NCM patients (January 2018 to May 2024), who were randomly assigned to training and validation cohorts. Independent predictors were identified using logistic regression, and a nomogram model was developed. The model’s discriminative ability, accuracy, and clinical applicability were subsequently validated. A total of 976 patients were included, of whom 54 had ICT and 191 had HF. Diabetes mellitus (DM), left ventricular end-systolic diameter (LVESD), and ejection fraction (EF) were identified as independent predictors for the composite endpoint. The nomogram demonstrated good performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.747 (95% CI: 0.707–0.787) in the training group and 0.803 (95% CI: 0.752–0.854) in the validation group. The calibration curve for the training group showed an average absolute error of 0.028, with a Hosmer-Lemeshow test P-value of 0.076. Decision curve analysis and clinical impact curves further indicated that the clinical net benefit was maximized at a threshold probability of 0.05–0.61. This study establishes and validates a nomogram for predicting cardiogenic composite endpoint in NVM patients, demonstrating robust clinical predictive value. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3c1960b49df949f6b47de3ea140c5451 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-3c1960b49df949f6b47de3ea140c54512025-01-19T12:24:10ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-01-0115111010.1038/s41598-025-85902-6Identifying risk factors and constructing a predictive model for heart failure combined with intracardiac thrombus in non-compaction cardiomyopathy patientsPeizhu Dang0Haiyang Wang1Xiaowei Huo2Zheyong Liang3Yongjian Zhang4Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityDepartment of Cardiovascular Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityDepartment of Cardiovascular Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityDepartment of Cardiovascular Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityAbstract This study aims to develop a nomogram prediction model for assessing the cardiogenic composite endpoint, which includes intracardiac thrombosis (ICT) combined with heart failure (HF) in patients with non-compaction cardiomyopathy (NCM) patients. We retrospectively analyzed clinical data from NCM patients (January 2018 to May 2024), who were randomly assigned to training and validation cohorts. Independent predictors were identified using logistic regression, and a nomogram model was developed. The model’s discriminative ability, accuracy, and clinical applicability were subsequently validated. A total of 976 patients were included, of whom 54 had ICT and 191 had HF. Diabetes mellitus (DM), left ventricular end-systolic diameter (LVESD), and ejection fraction (EF) were identified as independent predictors for the composite endpoint. The nomogram demonstrated good performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.747 (95% CI: 0.707–0.787) in the training group and 0.803 (95% CI: 0.752–0.854) in the validation group. The calibration curve for the training group showed an average absolute error of 0.028, with a Hosmer-Lemeshow test P-value of 0.076. Decision curve analysis and clinical impact curves further indicated that the clinical net benefit was maximized at a threshold probability of 0.05–0.61. This study establishes and validates a nomogram for predicting cardiogenic composite endpoint in NVM patients, demonstrating robust clinical predictive value.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-85902-6Non-compaction cardiomyopathyIntracardiac thrombusHeart failureRisk factorsNomogram prediction model |
| spellingShingle | Peizhu Dang Haiyang Wang Xiaowei Huo Zheyong Liang Yongjian Zhang Identifying risk factors and constructing a predictive model for heart failure combined with intracardiac thrombus in non-compaction cardiomyopathy patients Scientific Reports Non-compaction cardiomyopathy Intracardiac thrombus Heart failure Risk factors Nomogram prediction model |
| title | Identifying risk factors and constructing a predictive model for heart failure combined with intracardiac thrombus in non-compaction cardiomyopathy patients |
| title_full | Identifying risk factors and constructing a predictive model for heart failure combined with intracardiac thrombus in non-compaction cardiomyopathy patients |
| title_fullStr | Identifying risk factors and constructing a predictive model for heart failure combined with intracardiac thrombus in non-compaction cardiomyopathy patients |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identifying risk factors and constructing a predictive model for heart failure combined with intracardiac thrombus in non-compaction cardiomyopathy patients |
| title_short | Identifying risk factors and constructing a predictive model for heart failure combined with intracardiac thrombus in non-compaction cardiomyopathy patients |
| title_sort | identifying risk factors and constructing a predictive model for heart failure combined with intracardiac thrombus in non compaction cardiomyopathy patients |
| topic | Non-compaction cardiomyopathy Intracardiac thrombus Heart failure Risk factors Nomogram prediction model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-85902-6 |
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