Increased vulnerability of Arctic potential ice roads under climate change
Abstract Temporary ice roads built by the process of snow compaction, watering, and icing during cold winters are lifelines for land access in remote Arctic. In the context of the Arctic amplified warming, the vulnerability of potential ice roads under the influence of complex climate system remains...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02011-y |
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| author | Yuanbiao Dong Pengfeng Xiao Xueliang Zhang Daqing Ge Junchuan Yu Yangyang Chen Qiong Wu Yanni Ma Rongyuan Liu Wenbo Luan Hao Liu Jie Bai |
| author_facet | Yuanbiao Dong Pengfeng Xiao Xueliang Zhang Daqing Ge Junchuan Yu Yangyang Chen Qiong Wu Yanni Ma Rongyuan Liu Wenbo Luan Hao Liu Jie Bai |
| author_sort | Yuanbiao Dong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Temporary ice roads built by the process of snow compaction, watering, and icing during cold winters are lifelines for land access in remote Arctic. In the context of the Arctic amplified warming, the vulnerability of potential ice roads under the influence of complex climate system remains unclear. Here, we construct a potential ice road assessment model that allows quantization of the climatic suitability of potential ice roads in the Arctic. Using satellite remote sensing and meteorological data, we find changes in surface air temperature and snow cover reduced the climatic suitability of potential ice roads during 1979–2017. Spatially, potential ice roads in North America face more immediate threats due to decreased snow depth compared to Eurasia. Before the end of the 21st century, we project a further decline in the climatic suitability of potential ice roads, primarily due to increasing surface air temperatures and decreasing permafrost stability. Taking precious metal/diamond exploration as an example, we conclude that mining activities associated with ice roads will face access difficulties by 2050–2100 due to the decreased potential ice roads. These results give new insights into the challenges and opportunities of Arctic overland travel. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3b09caa7ae80424fbb46fe9d8273c96b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-3b09caa7ae80424fbb46fe9d8273c96b2025-01-26T12:53:59ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-01-01611910.1038/s43247-025-02011-yIncreased vulnerability of Arctic potential ice roads under climate changeYuanbiao Dong0Pengfeng Xiao1Xueliang Zhang2Daqing Ge3Junchuan Yu4Yangyang Chen5Qiong Wu6Yanni Ma7Rongyuan Liu8Wenbo Luan9Hao Liu10Jie Bai11China Aero Geophysical Survey and Remote Sensing Center for Natural ResourcesJiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing UniversityJiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing UniversityChina Aero Geophysical Survey and Remote Sensing Center for Natural ResourcesChina Aero Geophysical Survey and Remote Sensing Center for Natural ResourcesChina Aero Geophysical Survey and Remote Sensing Center for Natural ResourcesChina Aero Geophysical Survey and Remote Sensing Center for Natural ResourcesChina Aero Geophysical Survey and Remote Sensing Center for Natural ResourcesChina Aero Geophysical Survey and Remote Sensing Center for Natural ResourcesJiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing UniversityJiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing UniversityState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of SciencesAbstract Temporary ice roads built by the process of snow compaction, watering, and icing during cold winters are lifelines for land access in remote Arctic. In the context of the Arctic amplified warming, the vulnerability of potential ice roads under the influence of complex climate system remains unclear. Here, we construct a potential ice road assessment model that allows quantization of the climatic suitability of potential ice roads in the Arctic. Using satellite remote sensing and meteorological data, we find changes in surface air temperature and snow cover reduced the climatic suitability of potential ice roads during 1979–2017. Spatially, potential ice roads in North America face more immediate threats due to decreased snow depth compared to Eurasia. Before the end of the 21st century, we project a further decline in the climatic suitability of potential ice roads, primarily due to increasing surface air temperatures and decreasing permafrost stability. Taking precious metal/diamond exploration as an example, we conclude that mining activities associated with ice roads will face access difficulties by 2050–2100 due to the decreased potential ice roads. These results give new insights into the challenges and opportunities of Arctic overland travel.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02011-y |
| spellingShingle | Yuanbiao Dong Pengfeng Xiao Xueliang Zhang Daqing Ge Junchuan Yu Yangyang Chen Qiong Wu Yanni Ma Rongyuan Liu Wenbo Luan Hao Liu Jie Bai Increased vulnerability of Arctic potential ice roads under climate change Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Increased vulnerability of Arctic potential ice roads under climate change |
| title_full | Increased vulnerability of Arctic potential ice roads under climate change |
| title_fullStr | Increased vulnerability of Arctic potential ice roads under climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Increased vulnerability of Arctic potential ice roads under climate change |
| title_short | Increased vulnerability of Arctic potential ice roads under climate change |
| title_sort | increased vulnerability of arctic potential ice roads under climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02011-y |
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