Ebola outbreak in West Africa: real-time estimation and multiple-wave prediction
Based on the reported data until 18 March 2015 and numerical fitting via a simple formula of cumulative case number, we provide real-time estimation on basic reproduction number, inflection point, peak time and final outbreak size of ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa. From our simulation, we con...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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AIMS Press
2015-05-01
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| Series: | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
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| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2015.12.1055 |
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| _version_ | 1832590109017374720 |
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| author | Xiang-Sheng Wang Luoyi Zhong |
| author_facet | Xiang-Sheng Wang Luoyi Zhong |
| author_sort | Xiang-Sheng Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Based on the reported data until 18 March 2015 and numerical fitting via a simple formula of cumulative case number, we provide real-time estimation on basic reproduction number, inflection point, peak time and final outbreak size of ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa. From our simulation, we conclude that the first wave has passed its inflection point and predict that a second epidemic wave may appear in the near future. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3b07bdc65c2a4b87b3ba12a1ea00f6fe |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1551-0018 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2015-05-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-3b07bdc65c2a4b87b3ba12a1ea00f6fe2025-01-24T02:33:19ZengAIMS PressMathematical Biosciences and Engineering1551-00182015-05-011251055106310.3934/mbe.2015.12.1055Ebola outbreak in West Africa: real-time estimation and multiple-wave predictionXiang-Sheng Wang0Luoyi Zhong1Department of Mathematics, Southeast Missouri State University, Cape Girardeau, MO 63701Department of Mathematics, Southeast Missouri State University, Cape Girardeau, MO 63701Based on the reported data until 18 March 2015 and numerical fitting via a simple formula of cumulative case number, we provide real-time estimation on basic reproduction number, inflection point, peak time and final outbreak size of ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa. From our simulation, we conclude that the first wave has passed its inflection point and predict that a second epidemic wave may appear in the near future.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2015.12.1055ebola outbreak in west africapeak time.basic reproduction numberinflection pointfinal outbreak size |
| spellingShingle | Xiang-Sheng Wang Luoyi Zhong Ebola outbreak in West Africa: real-time estimation and multiple-wave prediction Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering ebola outbreak in west africa peak time. basic reproduction number inflection point final outbreak size |
| title | Ebola outbreak in West Africa: real-time estimation and multiple-wave prediction |
| title_full | Ebola outbreak in West Africa: real-time estimation and multiple-wave prediction |
| title_fullStr | Ebola outbreak in West Africa: real-time estimation and multiple-wave prediction |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ebola outbreak in West Africa: real-time estimation and multiple-wave prediction |
| title_short | Ebola outbreak in West Africa: real-time estimation and multiple-wave prediction |
| title_sort | ebola outbreak in west africa real time estimation and multiple wave prediction |
| topic | ebola outbreak in west africa peak time. basic reproduction number inflection point final outbreak size |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2015.12.1055 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT xiangshengwang ebolaoutbreakinwestafricarealtimeestimationandmultiplewaveprediction AT luoyizhong ebolaoutbreakinwestafricarealtimeestimationandmultiplewaveprediction |