Assessing water demand and supply in the Upper Indus Basin using integrated hydrological modeling under varied socioeconomic scenarios
Abstract This study projects future water demand scenarios in the Upper Indus Basin, focusing on reference, high population growth, increased irrigation, and lower population growth scenarios. The baseline scenario indicates a significant rise in water demand from 35.74 billion cubic meters (BCMs) i...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SpringerOpen
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Applied Water Science |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-024-02310-3 |
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| author | Sareer Ahmad Muhammad Waseem Hira Wahab Abdul Qadeer Khan Zulqarnain Jehan Izhar Ahmad Megersa Kebede Leta |
| author_facet | Sareer Ahmad Muhammad Waseem Hira Wahab Abdul Qadeer Khan Zulqarnain Jehan Izhar Ahmad Megersa Kebede Leta |
| author_sort | Sareer Ahmad |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study projects future water demand scenarios in the Upper Indus Basin, focusing on reference, high population growth, increased irrigation, and lower population growth scenarios. The baseline scenario indicates a significant rise in water demand from 35.74 billion cubic meters (BCMs) in 2020 to 60.28 BCM by 2035, driven by population growth and increased domestic water consumption. High population growth exacerbates this demand, reaching 62.96 BCM by 2035. This research aims to address domestic water needs under various growth scenarios, considering factors such as population growth rate and per capita consumption. The study employs integrated hydrological modeling to simulate water demand under different socioeconomic conditions. Key methods include analyzing baseline water demand, projecting future scenarios, and evaluating the impact of increased irrigation and population growth on water resources. Results reveal that without intervention, stagnant water supply management will lead to severe water shortages. Increased irrigation, influenced by a 3% growth in irrigated land, pushes agricultural water demand to 56.37 BCM by 2035. Mitigation efforts, such as a 15% reduction in domestic water consumption, could decrease overall demand to 51.23 BCM by 2035. Further reductions are explored through a 50% cut in agricultural water consumption, involving efficient irrigation techniques. The study highlights the critical role of technology and farmer awareness in achieving these reductions, despite current irrigation scheme losses of 20%. A lower population growth scenario shows a contrasting trend, with water demand decreasing to 49.11 BCM by 2035, attributed to a 1.8% population growth rate and decreased per capita consumption to 82 m3 per day. These findings underscore the importance of proactive water management strategies, technological advancements, and demographic considerations in addressing future water demand challenges in the Upper Indus Basin. This research provides proper insight into the impact of varied socioeconomic scenarios on water resources and the necessity for strategic interventions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-38b47f5818724c668dfcb847a16e92f8 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2190-5487 2190-5495 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Applied Water Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-38b47f5818724c668dfcb847a16e92f82025-01-26T12:47:04ZengSpringerOpenApplied Water Science2190-54872190-54952024-12-0115111710.1007/s13201-024-02310-3Assessing water demand and supply in the Upper Indus Basin using integrated hydrological modeling under varied socioeconomic scenariosSareer Ahmad0Muhammad Waseem1Hira Wahab2Abdul Qadeer Khan3Zulqarnain Jehan4Izhar Ahmad5Megersa Kebede Leta6Department of Civil Engineering, Ghulam Ishaq Khan Institute of Engineering Sciences and TechnologyDepartment of Civil Engineering, Ghulam Ishaq Khan Institute of Engineering Sciences and TechnologyDepartment of Civil Engineering, Ghulam Ishaq Khan Institute of Engineering Sciences and TechnologyDepartment of Civil Engineering, Ghulam Ishaq Khan Institute of Engineering Sciences and TechnologyDepartment of Civil Engineering, Ghulam Ishaq Khan Institute of Engineering Sciences and TechnologyDepartment of Civil Engineering, Ghulam Ishaq Khan Institute of Engineering Sciences and TechnologyFaculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Jimma Institute of Technology, Jimma UniversityAbstract This study projects future water demand scenarios in the Upper Indus Basin, focusing on reference, high population growth, increased irrigation, and lower population growth scenarios. The baseline scenario indicates a significant rise in water demand from 35.74 billion cubic meters (BCMs) in 2020 to 60.28 BCM by 2035, driven by population growth and increased domestic water consumption. High population growth exacerbates this demand, reaching 62.96 BCM by 2035. This research aims to address domestic water needs under various growth scenarios, considering factors such as population growth rate and per capita consumption. The study employs integrated hydrological modeling to simulate water demand under different socioeconomic conditions. Key methods include analyzing baseline water demand, projecting future scenarios, and evaluating the impact of increased irrigation and population growth on water resources. Results reveal that without intervention, stagnant water supply management will lead to severe water shortages. Increased irrigation, influenced by a 3% growth in irrigated land, pushes agricultural water demand to 56.37 BCM by 2035. Mitigation efforts, such as a 15% reduction in domestic water consumption, could decrease overall demand to 51.23 BCM by 2035. Further reductions are explored through a 50% cut in agricultural water consumption, involving efficient irrigation techniques. The study highlights the critical role of technology and farmer awareness in achieving these reductions, despite current irrigation scheme losses of 20%. A lower population growth scenario shows a contrasting trend, with water demand decreasing to 49.11 BCM by 2035, attributed to a 1.8% population growth rate and decreased per capita consumption to 82 m3 per day. These findings underscore the importance of proactive water management strategies, technological advancements, and demographic considerations in addressing future water demand challenges in the Upper Indus Basin. This research provides proper insight into the impact of varied socioeconomic scenarios on water resources and the necessity for strategic interventions.https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-024-02310-3Water demandWater supplyUpper Indus BasinIntegrated hydrological modelingWEAP (water evaluation and planning) modelSocioeconomic scenarios |
| spellingShingle | Sareer Ahmad Muhammad Waseem Hira Wahab Abdul Qadeer Khan Zulqarnain Jehan Izhar Ahmad Megersa Kebede Leta Assessing water demand and supply in the Upper Indus Basin using integrated hydrological modeling under varied socioeconomic scenarios Applied Water Science Water demand Water supply Upper Indus Basin Integrated hydrological modeling WEAP (water evaluation and planning) model Socioeconomic scenarios |
| title | Assessing water demand and supply in the Upper Indus Basin using integrated hydrological modeling under varied socioeconomic scenarios |
| title_full | Assessing water demand and supply in the Upper Indus Basin using integrated hydrological modeling under varied socioeconomic scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Assessing water demand and supply in the Upper Indus Basin using integrated hydrological modeling under varied socioeconomic scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing water demand and supply in the Upper Indus Basin using integrated hydrological modeling under varied socioeconomic scenarios |
| title_short | Assessing water demand and supply in the Upper Indus Basin using integrated hydrological modeling under varied socioeconomic scenarios |
| title_sort | assessing water demand and supply in the upper indus basin using integrated hydrological modeling under varied socioeconomic scenarios |
| topic | Water demand Water supply Upper Indus Basin Integrated hydrological modeling WEAP (water evaluation and planning) model Socioeconomic scenarios |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-024-02310-3 |
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