Multi-scenario analysis of green water resource efficiency under carbon emission constraints in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration, China: A system dynamics approach
Rapid urbanization and industrialization have exerted significant pressure on water resources, presenting dual challenges of low water resource efficiency and high carbon emissions. This study examines the dynamic evolution of green water resource efficiency (GWRE) under carbon emission constraints...
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Elsevier
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25000688 |
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| author | Keyao Yu Zhigang Li |
| author_facet | Keyao Yu Zhigang Li |
| author_sort | Keyao Yu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Rapid urbanization and industrialization have exerted significant pressure on water resources, presenting dual challenges of low water resource efficiency and high carbon emissions. This study examines the dynamic evolution of green water resource efficiency (GWRE) under carbon emission constraints in Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration (CCUA) from 2005 to 2021 by Super SBM-DEA algorithm. We analyze its dynamic trends using kernel density estimation and standard deviation ellipse methods. Based on the theory of sustainable water resources management, this study then constructs a system dynamics (SD) model that divides GWRE into four subsystems: socio-economic, technological innovation, ecological environment, and water resources. This model is used to explore complex mechanisms and feedback loops influencing GWRE. Five scenarios are then set up: baseline development, economic priority, green innovation, water-saving and emission reduction, and comprehensive development. These scenarios are used to simulate and predict different development paths and evaluate the impact of various key indicators on GWRE. The study finds that: (1) GWRE in the CCUA from 2005 to 2021 has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the kernel density curve shifting from “short and wide” to “tall and narrow” and the peak moving to the right, indicating a gradual narrowing of GWRE disparities. (2) Model run tests and historical tests on the GWRE system demonstrate that the relative errors between the model’s predictions and actual outcomes are within 5%, confirming the model’s stability and effectiveness. (3) The green innovation and comprehensive development scenarios yield the best outcomes in terms of GWRE and carbon emission control from 2022 to 2035, reflecting the coordinated development of the economy, environment, and society. Finally, this study provides policy implications to enhance technological innovation, optimize industrial structures, and strengthen water ecosystem protection, offering theoretical and policy insights for sustainable development in the CCUA and similar regions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-35d8327176664f1eb004eef954efc7f8 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
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| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-35d8327176664f1eb004eef954efc7f82025-01-29T05:00:22ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-02-01171113139Multi-scenario analysis of green water resource efficiency under carbon emission constraints in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration, China: A system dynamics approachKeyao Yu0Zhigang Li1College of Management Science, Chengdu University of Technology, 1 East Third Road, Erxian Bridge, Chenghua District, Chengdu, Sichuan Province 610059, PR ChinaCollege of Management Science, Chengdu University of Technology, 1 East Third Road, Erxian Bridge, Chenghua District, Chengdu, Sichuan Province 610059, PR China; Protection Policy Research Center of Key Ecological Functional Areas in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River, Sichuan Provincial Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences, Chengdu, Sichuan Province 610059, PR China; Corresponding author.Rapid urbanization and industrialization have exerted significant pressure on water resources, presenting dual challenges of low water resource efficiency and high carbon emissions. This study examines the dynamic evolution of green water resource efficiency (GWRE) under carbon emission constraints in Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration (CCUA) from 2005 to 2021 by Super SBM-DEA algorithm. We analyze its dynamic trends using kernel density estimation and standard deviation ellipse methods. Based on the theory of sustainable water resources management, this study then constructs a system dynamics (SD) model that divides GWRE into four subsystems: socio-economic, technological innovation, ecological environment, and water resources. This model is used to explore complex mechanisms and feedback loops influencing GWRE. Five scenarios are then set up: baseline development, economic priority, green innovation, water-saving and emission reduction, and comprehensive development. These scenarios are used to simulate and predict different development paths and evaluate the impact of various key indicators on GWRE. The study finds that: (1) GWRE in the CCUA from 2005 to 2021 has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the kernel density curve shifting from “short and wide” to “tall and narrow” and the peak moving to the right, indicating a gradual narrowing of GWRE disparities. (2) Model run tests and historical tests on the GWRE system demonstrate that the relative errors between the model’s predictions and actual outcomes are within 5%, confirming the model’s stability and effectiveness. (3) The green innovation and comprehensive development scenarios yield the best outcomes in terms of GWRE and carbon emission control from 2022 to 2035, reflecting the coordinated development of the economy, environment, and society. Finally, this study provides policy implications to enhance technological innovation, optimize industrial structures, and strengthen water ecosystem protection, offering theoretical and policy insights for sustainable development in the CCUA and similar regions.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25000688Green water resource efficiencyCarbon emission constraintsDynamic evolutionSystem dynamics modelMulti-scenario simulation |
| spellingShingle | Keyao Yu Zhigang Li Multi-scenario analysis of green water resource efficiency under carbon emission constraints in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration, China: A system dynamics approach Ecological Indicators Green water resource efficiency Carbon emission constraints Dynamic evolution System dynamics model Multi-scenario simulation |
| title | Multi-scenario analysis of green water resource efficiency under carbon emission constraints in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration, China: A system dynamics approach |
| title_full | Multi-scenario analysis of green water resource efficiency under carbon emission constraints in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration, China: A system dynamics approach |
| title_fullStr | Multi-scenario analysis of green water resource efficiency under carbon emission constraints in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration, China: A system dynamics approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multi-scenario analysis of green water resource efficiency under carbon emission constraints in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration, China: A system dynamics approach |
| title_short | Multi-scenario analysis of green water resource efficiency under carbon emission constraints in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration, China: A system dynamics approach |
| title_sort | multi scenario analysis of green water resource efficiency under carbon emission constraints in the chengdu chongqing urban agglomeration china a system dynamics approach |
| topic | Green water resource efficiency Carbon emission constraints Dynamic evolution System dynamics model Multi-scenario simulation |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25000688 |
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