Joint Modeling of Precipitation and Temperature Using Copula Theory for Current and Future Prediction under Climate Change Scenarios in Arid Lands (Case Study, Kerman Province, Iran)
Precipitation and temperature are very important climatic parameters as their changes may affect life conditions. Therefore, predicting temporal trends of precipitation and temperature is very useful for societal and urban planning. In this research, in order to study the future trends in precipitat...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/6848049 |
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| author | T. Mesbahzadeh M. M. Miglietta M. Mirakbari F. Soleimani Sardoo M. Abdolhoseini |
| author_facet | T. Mesbahzadeh M. M. Miglietta M. Mirakbari F. Soleimani Sardoo M. Abdolhoseini |
| author_sort | T. Mesbahzadeh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Precipitation and temperature are very important climatic parameters as their changes may affect life conditions. Therefore, predicting temporal trends of precipitation and temperature is very useful for societal and urban planning. In this research, in order to study the future trends in precipitation and temperature, we have applied scenarios of the fifth assessment report of IPCC. The results suggest that both parameters will be increasing in the studied area (Iran) in future. Since there is interdependence between these two climatic parameters, the independent analysis of the two fields will generate errors in the interpretation of model simulations. Therefore, in this study, copula theory was used for joint modeling of precipitation and temperature under climate change scenarios. By the joint distribution, we can find the structure of interdependence of precipitation and temperature in current and future under climate change conditions, which can assist in the risk assessment of extreme hydrological and meteorological events. Based on the results of goodness of fit test, the Frank copula function was selected for modeling of recorded and constructed data under RCP2.6 scenario and the Gaussian copula function was used for joint modeling of the constructed data under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-356da0e58c55403d8f2c34b613900565 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-356da0e58c55403d8f2c34b6139005652025-02-03T07:24:40ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172019-01-01201910.1155/2019/68480496848049Joint Modeling of Precipitation and Temperature Using Copula Theory for Current and Future Prediction under Climate Change Scenarios in Arid Lands (Case Study, Kerman Province, Iran)T. Mesbahzadeh0M. M. Miglietta1M. Mirakbari2F. Soleimani Sardoo3M. Abdolhoseini4Assistant Professor, Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountain Regions, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Tehran, IranInstitute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate of the Italian National Research Council (ISAC-CNR), Corso Stati Uniti 4, Padova, ItalyPhD, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Tehran, IranAcademic Staff, Department of Natural Engineering, University of Jiroft, Kerman and PhD Student in Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Tehran, IranMSc, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Tehran, IranPrecipitation and temperature are very important climatic parameters as their changes may affect life conditions. Therefore, predicting temporal trends of precipitation and temperature is very useful for societal and urban planning. In this research, in order to study the future trends in precipitation and temperature, we have applied scenarios of the fifth assessment report of IPCC. The results suggest that both parameters will be increasing in the studied area (Iran) in future. Since there is interdependence between these two climatic parameters, the independent analysis of the two fields will generate errors in the interpretation of model simulations. Therefore, in this study, copula theory was used for joint modeling of precipitation and temperature under climate change scenarios. By the joint distribution, we can find the structure of interdependence of precipitation and temperature in current and future under climate change conditions, which can assist in the risk assessment of extreme hydrological and meteorological events. Based on the results of goodness of fit test, the Frank copula function was selected for modeling of recorded and constructed data under RCP2.6 scenario and the Gaussian copula function was used for joint modeling of the constructed data under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/6848049 |
| spellingShingle | T. Mesbahzadeh M. M. Miglietta M. Mirakbari F. Soleimani Sardoo M. Abdolhoseini Joint Modeling of Precipitation and Temperature Using Copula Theory for Current and Future Prediction under Climate Change Scenarios in Arid Lands (Case Study, Kerman Province, Iran) Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Joint Modeling of Precipitation and Temperature Using Copula Theory for Current and Future Prediction under Climate Change Scenarios in Arid Lands (Case Study, Kerman Province, Iran) |
| title_full | Joint Modeling of Precipitation and Temperature Using Copula Theory for Current and Future Prediction under Climate Change Scenarios in Arid Lands (Case Study, Kerman Province, Iran) |
| title_fullStr | Joint Modeling of Precipitation and Temperature Using Copula Theory for Current and Future Prediction under Climate Change Scenarios in Arid Lands (Case Study, Kerman Province, Iran) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Joint Modeling of Precipitation and Temperature Using Copula Theory for Current and Future Prediction under Climate Change Scenarios in Arid Lands (Case Study, Kerman Province, Iran) |
| title_short | Joint Modeling of Precipitation and Temperature Using Copula Theory for Current and Future Prediction under Climate Change Scenarios in Arid Lands (Case Study, Kerman Province, Iran) |
| title_sort | joint modeling of precipitation and temperature using copula theory for current and future prediction under climate change scenarios in arid lands case study kerman province iran |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/6848049 |
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