Development an Inflammation-Related Factor-Based Model for Predicting Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study
Several inflammation-related factors (IRFs) have been reported to predict organ failure of acute pancreatitis (AP) in previous clinical studies. However, there are a few shortcomings in these models. The aim of this study was to develop a new prediction model based on IRFs that could accurately iden...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Mediators of Inflammation |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/4906768 |
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| author | Yunpeng Peng Xiaole Zhu Chaoqun Hou Chenyuan Shi Dongya Huang Zipeng Lu Yi Miao Qiang Li |
| author_facet | Yunpeng Peng Xiaole Zhu Chaoqun Hou Chenyuan Shi Dongya Huang Zipeng Lu Yi Miao Qiang Li |
| author_sort | Yunpeng Peng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Several inflammation-related factors (IRFs) have been reported to predict organ failure of acute pancreatitis (AP) in previous clinical studies. However, there are a few shortcomings in these models. The aim of this study was to develop a new prediction model based on IRFs that could accurately identify the risk for organ failure in AP. Methods. 100 patients with their clinical information and IRF data (levels of 10 cytokines, percentages of different immune cells, and data obtained from white blood cell count) were retrospectively enrolled in this study, and 94 patients were finally selected for further analysis. Univariate and multivariate analysis were applied to evaluate the potential risk factors for the organ failure of AP. The area under the ROC curve (AUCs), sensitivity, and specificity of the relevant model were assessed to evaluate the prediction ability of IRFs. A new scoring system to predict the organ failure of AP was created based on the regression coefficient of a multivariate logistic regression model. Results. The incidence of OF in AP patients was nearly 16% (15/94) in our derivation cohort. Univariate analytic data revealed that IL6, IL8, IL10, MCP1, CD3+ CD4+ T lymphocytes, CD19+ B lymphocytes, PCT, APACHE II score, and RANSON score were potential predictors for AP organ failure, and IL6 (P=0.038), IL8 (P=0.043), and CD19+B lymphocytes (P=0.045) were independent predictors according to further multivariate analysis. In addition, a preoperative scoring system (0-11 points) was constructed to predict the organ failure of AP using these three factors. The AUC of the new score system was 0.86. The optimal cut-off value of the new scoring system was 6 points. Conclusions. Our prediction model (based on IL6, IL8, and CD19+ B Lymphocyte) has satisfactory working efficiency to identify AP patients with high risk of organ failure. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-347435cd9e8f41628bdbcab97b3c06ae |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0962-9351 1466-1861 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mediators of Inflammation |
| spelling | doaj-art-347435cd9e8f41628bdbcab97b3c06ae2025-02-03T07:23:31ZengWileyMediators of Inflammation0962-93511466-18612021-01-01202110.1155/2021/49067684906768Development an Inflammation-Related Factor-Based Model for Predicting Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort StudyYunpeng Peng0Xiaole Zhu1Chaoqun Hou2Chenyuan Shi3Dongya Huang4Zipeng Lu5Yi Miao6Qiang Li7Pancreas Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, 300 Guangzhou Road, Nanjing, 210029 Jiangsu Province, ChinaPancreas Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, 300 Guangzhou Road, Nanjing, 210029 Jiangsu Province, ChinaPancreas Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, 300 Guangzhou Road, Nanjing, 210029 Jiangsu Province, ChinaPancreas Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, 300 Guangzhou Road, Nanjing, 210029 Jiangsu Province, ChinaPancreas Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, 300 Guangzhou Road, Nanjing, 210029 Jiangsu Province, ChinaPancreas Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, 300 Guangzhou Road, Nanjing, 210029 Jiangsu Province, ChinaPancreas Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, 300 Guangzhou Road, Nanjing, 210029 Jiangsu Province, ChinaPancreas Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, 300 Guangzhou Road, Nanjing, 210029 Jiangsu Province, ChinaSeveral inflammation-related factors (IRFs) have been reported to predict organ failure of acute pancreatitis (AP) in previous clinical studies. However, there are a few shortcomings in these models. The aim of this study was to develop a new prediction model based on IRFs that could accurately identify the risk for organ failure in AP. Methods. 100 patients with their clinical information and IRF data (levels of 10 cytokines, percentages of different immune cells, and data obtained from white blood cell count) were retrospectively enrolled in this study, and 94 patients were finally selected for further analysis. Univariate and multivariate analysis were applied to evaluate the potential risk factors for the organ failure of AP. The area under the ROC curve (AUCs), sensitivity, and specificity of the relevant model were assessed to evaluate the prediction ability of IRFs. A new scoring system to predict the organ failure of AP was created based on the regression coefficient of a multivariate logistic regression model. Results. The incidence of OF in AP patients was nearly 16% (15/94) in our derivation cohort. Univariate analytic data revealed that IL6, IL8, IL10, MCP1, CD3+ CD4+ T lymphocytes, CD19+ B lymphocytes, PCT, APACHE II score, and RANSON score were potential predictors for AP organ failure, and IL6 (P=0.038), IL8 (P=0.043), and CD19+B lymphocytes (P=0.045) were independent predictors according to further multivariate analysis. In addition, a preoperative scoring system (0-11 points) was constructed to predict the organ failure of AP using these three factors. The AUC of the new score system was 0.86. The optimal cut-off value of the new scoring system was 6 points. Conclusions. Our prediction model (based on IL6, IL8, and CD19+ B Lymphocyte) has satisfactory working efficiency to identify AP patients with high risk of organ failure.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/4906768 |
| spellingShingle | Yunpeng Peng Xiaole Zhu Chaoqun Hou Chenyuan Shi Dongya Huang Zipeng Lu Yi Miao Qiang Li Development an Inflammation-Related Factor-Based Model for Predicting Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study Mediators of Inflammation |
| title | Development an Inflammation-Related Factor-Based Model for Predicting Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study |
| title_full | Development an Inflammation-Related Factor-Based Model for Predicting Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study |
| title_fullStr | Development an Inflammation-Related Factor-Based Model for Predicting Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development an Inflammation-Related Factor-Based Model for Predicting Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study |
| title_short | Development an Inflammation-Related Factor-Based Model for Predicting Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study |
| title_sort | development an inflammation related factor based model for predicting organ failure in acute pancreatitis a retrospective cohort study |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/4906768 |
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