Short-term forecasting of the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine based on the seasonal cycle model
The authors of this study propose a method of short-term forecasting of time series of the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic, which has a pronounced seasonality. This method, which has no direct analogies, provides the decomposition of a general forecasting task into several simpler tasks, su...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Ukrainian |
| Published: |
Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Sistemnì Doslìdženâ ta Informacìjnì Tehnologìï |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/322459 |
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| Summary: | The authors of this study propose a method of short-term forecasting of time series of the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic, which has a pronounced seasonality. This method, which has no direct analogies, provides the decomposition of a general forecasting task into several simpler tasks, such as the tasks of building a model of the seasonal cycle of a time series, aggregating the original time series, taking into account the duration of the seasonal cycle, forecasting an aggregated time series, developing an aggregated forecast into a forecast in the original time scale, using the seasonal cycle model. The solution for each task allows the usage of relatively simple methods of mathematical statistics. The article provides a formally rigorous description of all procedures of the method and illustrations of their numerical implementation on the example of a real forecasting task. The use of this method for short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine has systematically demonstrated its effectiveness. |
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| ISSN: | 1681-6048 2308-8893 |