Analysis of the Impact of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on China Based on Bayesian VAR Model
Using a set of Chinese economic data and a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model, this study empirically analyzes the spillover effects of U.S. trade policy uncertainty on the output, consumption, investment, and net export in China. The results find that U.S. trade policy uncertainty is an im...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Mathematics |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/7124997 |
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| _version_ | 1832550750680514560 |
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| author | Huan Yan Weiguo Xiao Qi Deng Sisi Xiong |
| author_facet | Huan Yan Weiguo Xiao Qi Deng Sisi Xiong |
| author_sort | Huan Yan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Using a set of Chinese economic data and a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model, this study empirically analyzes the spillover effects of U.S. trade policy uncertainty on the output, consumption, investment, and net export in China. The results find that U.S. trade policy uncertainty is an important factor influencing China’s real economy. Specifically, an increase in U.S. trade policy uncertainty has a significant negative effect on China’s output, consumption, and net export in the short and long run, but it will have a negative impact on investment in the short run and a positive impact in the medium and long run. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-32c093f8bb404b739acbd59fe50863f4 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2314-4785 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Mathematics |
| spelling | doaj-art-32c093f8bb404b739acbd59fe50863f42025-02-03T06:05:55ZengWileyJournal of Mathematics2314-47852022-01-01202210.1155/2022/7124997Analysis of the Impact of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on China Based on Bayesian VAR ModelHuan Yan0Weiguo Xiao1Qi Deng2Sisi Xiong3Economics and Management SchoolEconomics and Management SchoolEconomics and Management SchoolEconomics and Management SchoolUsing a set of Chinese economic data and a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model, this study empirically analyzes the spillover effects of U.S. trade policy uncertainty on the output, consumption, investment, and net export in China. The results find that U.S. trade policy uncertainty is an important factor influencing China’s real economy. Specifically, an increase in U.S. trade policy uncertainty has a significant negative effect on China’s output, consumption, and net export in the short and long run, but it will have a negative impact on investment in the short run and a positive impact in the medium and long run.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/7124997 |
| spellingShingle | Huan Yan Weiguo Xiao Qi Deng Sisi Xiong Analysis of the Impact of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on China Based on Bayesian VAR Model Journal of Mathematics |
| title | Analysis of the Impact of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on China Based on Bayesian VAR Model |
| title_full | Analysis of the Impact of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on China Based on Bayesian VAR Model |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of the Impact of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on China Based on Bayesian VAR Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of the Impact of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on China Based on Bayesian VAR Model |
| title_short | Analysis of the Impact of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on China Based on Bayesian VAR Model |
| title_sort | analysis of the impact of u s trade policy uncertainty on china based on bayesian var model |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/7124997 |
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