Emerging Risk to Dengue in Asian Metropolitan Areas Under Global Warming
Abstract Aedes sp. mosquitoes are changing their geographic range in response to climate change. This is of concern because these mosquitoes can carry dengue fever and other viral diseases. Changing weather patterns can also increase the numbers of Aedes mosquitoes, leading to greater human exposure...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-07-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004548 |
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| author | Cheng Jing Guojie Wang Kristie L. Ebi Buda Su Xiaoming Wang Dong Chen Tong Jiang Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz |
| author_facet | Cheng Jing Guojie Wang Kristie L. Ebi Buda Su Xiaoming Wang Dong Chen Tong Jiang Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz |
| author_sort | Cheng Jing |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Aedes sp. mosquitoes are changing their geographic range in response to climate change. This is of concern because these mosquitoes can carry dengue fever and other viral diseases. Changing weather patterns can also increase the numbers of Aedes mosquitoes, leading to greater human exposure and enhancing population health risks. We project the geographic distribution of Aedes and associated changes in populations exposed to dengue in Asian metropolitan areas under warming scenarios from 1.5°C to 5.0°C above pre‐industrial temperatures, using multi‐model ensembles. With global warming, the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula, the coast of the Arabian Sea in southern Iran, southern Pakistan in West Asia, the Korean Peninsula, most of the Japanese islands, and parts of North China in East Asia are projected to become suitable for dengue transmission. The numbers of metropolitan areas exposed to dengue is projected to change from 142 (48%) in the reference period (1995–2014) to 211 (71%) at 5.0°C warming. With the combined impact of socioeconomic and climate change, population exposure to dengue in Asian metropolitan areas is projected to increase from 263 (multi‐model range 252–268) million in 1995–2014 to 411 (394–432) million, 446 (420–490) million, 509 (475–601), 558 (493–685) and 587 (529–773) million, respectively, at 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C and 5°C warming, with an average of 2.9 million new people exposed to dengue fever in metropolitan areas each year. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-31b49880eb3c4266a92533cfaae30744 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-31b49880eb3c4266a92533cfaae307442025-01-29T07:58:53ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772024-07-01127n/an/a10.1029/2024EF004548Emerging Risk to Dengue in Asian Metropolitan Areas Under Global WarmingCheng Jing0Guojie Wang1Kristie L. Ebi2Buda Su3Xiaoming Wang4Dong Chen5Tong Jiang6Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz7Research Institute of Climatic and Environmental Governance/Institute for Disaster Risk Management School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing ChinaResearch Institute of Climatic and Environmental Governance/Institute for Disaster Risk Management School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing ChinaDepartments of Global Health and Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences University of Washington Seattle WA USAResearch Institute of Climatic and Environmental Governance/Institute for Disaster Risk Management School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing ChinaDepartment of Civil Engineering Monash University Melbourne VIC AustraliaCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Melbourne VLC AustraliaResearch Institute of Climatic and Environmental Governance/Institute for Disaster Risk Management School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing ChinaDepartment of Environmental Engineering and Mechanical Engineering Poznan University of Life Sciences Poznan PolandAbstract Aedes sp. mosquitoes are changing their geographic range in response to climate change. This is of concern because these mosquitoes can carry dengue fever and other viral diseases. Changing weather patterns can also increase the numbers of Aedes mosquitoes, leading to greater human exposure and enhancing population health risks. We project the geographic distribution of Aedes and associated changes in populations exposed to dengue in Asian metropolitan areas under warming scenarios from 1.5°C to 5.0°C above pre‐industrial temperatures, using multi‐model ensembles. With global warming, the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula, the coast of the Arabian Sea in southern Iran, southern Pakistan in West Asia, the Korean Peninsula, most of the Japanese islands, and parts of North China in East Asia are projected to become suitable for dengue transmission. The numbers of metropolitan areas exposed to dengue is projected to change from 142 (48%) in the reference period (1995–2014) to 211 (71%) at 5.0°C warming. With the combined impact of socioeconomic and climate change, population exposure to dengue in Asian metropolitan areas is projected to increase from 263 (multi‐model range 252–268) million in 1995–2014 to 411 (394–432) million, 446 (420–490) million, 509 (475–601), 558 (493–685) and 587 (529–773) million, respectively, at 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C and 5°C warming, with an average of 2.9 million new people exposed to dengue fever in metropolitan areas each year.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004548dengueclimate changeriskexposureAsian metropolitan areas |
| spellingShingle | Cheng Jing Guojie Wang Kristie L. Ebi Buda Su Xiaoming Wang Dong Chen Tong Jiang Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Emerging Risk to Dengue in Asian Metropolitan Areas Under Global Warming Earth's Future dengue climate change risk exposure Asian metropolitan areas |
| title | Emerging Risk to Dengue in Asian Metropolitan Areas Under Global Warming |
| title_full | Emerging Risk to Dengue in Asian Metropolitan Areas Under Global Warming |
| title_fullStr | Emerging Risk to Dengue in Asian Metropolitan Areas Under Global Warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Emerging Risk to Dengue in Asian Metropolitan Areas Under Global Warming |
| title_short | Emerging Risk to Dengue in Asian Metropolitan Areas Under Global Warming |
| title_sort | emerging risk to dengue in asian metropolitan areas under global warming |
| topic | dengue climate change risk exposure Asian metropolitan areas |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004548 |
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