Development of a zoonotic influenza distribution assessment and ranking system (ZIDAR): Technical application in Nepal to support cross-sectoral risk-based surveillance
Zoonotic influenza poses a significant public health concern to agricultural industries, food security, wildlife conservation, and human health. Nations situated along migratory bird flyways and characterised by dense populations of livestock and humans, and low biosecurity of production animal valu...
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Elsevier
2025-06-01
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| Series: | One Health |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771425000114 |
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| author | Adam Charette-Castonguay Dipendra Gautam Binay Shrestha Hemant Chandra Ojha Barun Kumar Sharma Mukul Upadhayaya Sujan Rana Roshika Shrestha Lok Bandu Chaudhary Bhawana Kandel Rudra Prasad Marasini Sharmila Chapagain Tulsi Ram Gompo Surendra Karki Apsara Poudel Saugat Shrestha Avinash Sunny Kayastha Arun Kumar Govindakarnavar Reuben Samuel Allison Gocotano Pushpa Ranjan Wijesinghe Nilesh Buddha Edwin Ceniza Salvador Manish Kakkar Ricardo J. Soares Magalhães |
| author_facet | Adam Charette-Castonguay Dipendra Gautam Binay Shrestha Hemant Chandra Ojha Barun Kumar Sharma Mukul Upadhayaya Sujan Rana Roshika Shrestha Lok Bandu Chaudhary Bhawana Kandel Rudra Prasad Marasini Sharmila Chapagain Tulsi Ram Gompo Surendra Karki Apsara Poudel Saugat Shrestha Avinash Sunny Kayastha Arun Kumar Govindakarnavar Reuben Samuel Allison Gocotano Pushpa Ranjan Wijesinghe Nilesh Buddha Edwin Ceniza Salvador Manish Kakkar Ricardo J. Soares Magalhães |
| author_sort | Adam Charette-Castonguay |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Zoonotic influenza poses a significant public health concern to agricultural industries, food security, wildlife conservation, and human health. Nations situated along migratory bird flyways and characterised by dense populations of livestock and humans, and low biosecurity of production animal value chains are particularly vulnerable to zoonotic influenza outbreaks. While spatial risk assessments have been used to map vulnerable areas, their applicability across multiple sectors has been so far limited. Here, we introduce the development and application of a Zoonotic Influenza Distribution and Ranking (ZIDAR) framework to identify areas highly suitable for zoonotic influenza transmission across multiple exposure interfaces and to measure the importance of associated risk factors. The development of ZIDAR involves a seven-step approach distributed across an initial expert consultation stage followed by a technical modelling stage. The expert consultation stage aims to define interfaces of exposure across human, livestock and wildlife, identification of associated risk factors for each of the identified interfaces and a prioritisation activity to define weights for the interfaces and associated risk factors. This is then followed by a technical phase involving model building, model structure validation, data gathering and assessment of model performance. The model development and performance assessment steps of the technical stage includes a model calibration step to maximise model fitness with regards to wildlife and animal interfaces by finding pareto-efficient sets of weights for risk factors. We applied the ZIDAR framework in Nepal and the resulting model structure enabled the identification of hotspot areas where the risk of transmission is more significant across multiple interfaces simultaneously. The ZIDAR Nepal model's predictive accuracy, determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, demonstrated strong performance: 0.87 and 0.85 for the wildlife and animal components, respectively. The ZIDAR framework presented here provides valuable insights to enable the formulation of comprehensive One Health surveillance programs and inform targeted and effective interventions to bolster pandemic preparedness strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-310d507274a6407aa10bd97faed7918d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2352-7714 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | One Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-310d507274a6407aa10bd97faed7918d2025-02-06T05:12:27ZengElsevierOne Health2352-77142025-06-0120100975Development of a zoonotic influenza distribution assessment and ranking system (ZIDAR): Technical application in Nepal to support cross-sectoral risk-based surveillanceAdam Charette-Castonguay0Dipendra Gautam1Binay Shrestha2Hemant Chandra Ojha3Barun Kumar Sharma4Mukul Upadhayaya5Sujan Rana6Roshika Shrestha7Lok Bandu Chaudhary8Bhawana Kandel9Rudra Prasad Marasini10Sharmila Chapagain11Tulsi Ram Gompo12Surendra Karki13Apsara Poudel14Saugat Shrestha15Avinash Sunny Kayastha16Arun Kumar Govindakarnavar17Reuben Samuel18Allison Gocotano19Pushpa Ranjan Wijesinghe20Nilesh Buddha21Edwin Ceniza Salvador22Manish Kakkar23Ricardo J. Soares Magalhães24Queensland Alliance for One Health Sciences, School of Veterinary Sciences, The University of Queensland, Gatton 4343, Australia; CSIRO Agriculture & Food, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, St Lucia 4067, AustraliaWHO Country Office for Nepal, Kathmandu, NepalWHO Country Office for Nepal, Kathmandu, NepalDepartment of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Population, Kathmandu, NepalDepartment of Livestock Services, Ministry of Agricultural Development, Kathmandu, NepalDepartment of Livestock Services, Ministry of Agricultural Development, Kathmandu, NepalDepartment of Livestock Services, Ministry of Agricultural Development, Kathmandu, NepalDepartment of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Population, Kathmandu, NepalDepartment of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Population, Kathmandu, NepalDepartment of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Population, Kathmandu, NepalDepartment of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Population, Kathmandu, NepalDepartment of Livestock Services, Ministry of Agricultural Development, Kathmandu, NepalDepartment of Livestock Services, Ministry of Agricultural Development, Kathmandu, NepalFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, NepalForest Research and Training Centre, Ministry of Forest and Environment, NepalWHO Country Office for Nepal, Kathmandu, NepalWHO Country Office for Nepal, Kathmandu, NepalWHO Country Office for Nepal, Kathmandu, NepalWHO Health Emergencies Department, WHO South-East Asian Regional Office, New Delhi, IndiaWHO Country Office for Nepal, Kathmandu, NepalWHO Health Emergencies Department, WHO South-East Asian Regional Office, New Delhi, IndiaWHO Health Emergencies Department, WHO South-East Asian Regional Office, New Delhi, IndiaWHO Health Emergencies Department, WHO South-East Asian Regional Office, New Delhi, IndiaWHO Health Emergencies Department, WHO South-East Asian Regional Office, New Delhi, India; Corresponding author.Queensland Alliance for One Health Sciences, School of Veterinary Sciences, The University of Queensland, Gatton 4343, Australia; Children's Health and Environment Program, UQ Children's Health Research Centre, The University of Queensland, Australia; Corresponding author at: Queensland Alliance for One Health Sciences, School of Veterinary Science, The University of Queensland, Gatton Qld 4343, Australia.Zoonotic influenza poses a significant public health concern to agricultural industries, food security, wildlife conservation, and human health. Nations situated along migratory bird flyways and characterised by dense populations of livestock and humans, and low biosecurity of production animal value chains are particularly vulnerable to zoonotic influenza outbreaks. While spatial risk assessments have been used to map vulnerable areas, their applicability across multiple sectors has been so far limited. Here, we introduce the development and application of a Zoonotic Influenza Distribution and Ranking (ZIDAR) framework to identify areas highly suitable for zoonotic influenza transmission across multiple exposure interfaces and to measure the importance of associated risk factors. The development of ZIDAR involves a seven-step approach distributed across an initial expert consultation stage followed by a technical modelling stage. The expert consultation stage aims to define interfaces of exposure across human, livestock and wildlife, identification of associated risk factors for each of the identified interfaces and a prioritisation activity to define weights for the interfaces and associated risk factors. This is then followed by a technical phase involving model building, model structure validation, data gathering and assessment of model performance. The model development and performance assessment steps of the technical stage includes a model calibration step to maximise model fitness with regards to wildlife and animal interfaces by finding pareto-efficient sets of weights for risk factors. We applied the ZIDAR framework in Nepal and the resulting model structure enabled the identification of hotspot areas where the risk of transmission is more significant across multiple interfaces simultaneously. The ZIDAR Nepal model's predictive accuracy, determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, demonstrated strong performance: 0.87 and 0.85 for the wildlife and animal components, respectively. The ZIDAR framework presented here provides valuable insights to enable the formulation of comprehensive One Health surveillance programs and inform targeted and effective interventions to bolster pandemic preparedness strategies.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771425000114ZoonosesInfluenzaMappingDecision-supportModelling |
| spellingShingle | Adam Charette-Castonguay Dipendra Gautam Binay Shrestha Hemant Chandra Ojha Barun Kumar Sharma Mukul Upadhayaya Sujan Rana Roshika Shrestha Lok Bandu Chaudhary Bhawana Kandel Rudra Prasad Marasini Sharmila Chapagain Tulsi Ram Gompo Surendra Karki Apsara Poudel Saugat Shrestha Avinash Sunny Kayastha Arun Kumar Govindakarnavar Reuben Samuel Allison Gocotano Pushpa Ranjan Wijesinghe Nilesh Buddha Edwin Ceniza Salvador Manish Kakkar Ricardo J. Soares Magalhães Development of a zoonotic influenza distribution assessment and ranking system (ZIDAR): Technical application in Nepal to support cross-sectoral risk-based surveillance One Health Zoonoses Influenza Mapping Decision-support Modelling |
| title | Development of a zoonotic influenza distribution assessment and ranking system (ZIDAR): Technical application in Nepal to support cross-sectoral risk-based surveillance |
| title_full | Development of a zoonotic influenza distribution assessment and ranking system (ZIDAR): Technical application in Nepal to support cross-sectoral risk-based surveillance |
| title_fullStr | Development of a zoonotic influenza distribution assessment and ranking system (ZIDAR): Technical application in Nepal to support cross-sectoral risk-based surveillance |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development of a zoonotic influenza distribution assessment and ranking system (ZIDAR): Technical application in Nepal to support cross-sectoral risk-based surveillance |
| title_short | Development of a zoonotic influenza distribution assessment and ranking system (ZIDAR): Technical application in Nepal to support cross-sectoral risk-based surveillance |
| title_sort | development of a zoonotic influenza distribution assessment and ranking system zidar technical application in nepal to support cross sectoral risk based surveillance |
| topic | Zoonoses Influenza Mapping Decision-support Modelling |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771425000114 |
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