The variability and predictability of summer southwest monsoon intensity measurement index across mainland indochina: from local synoptic to large scale perspectives
The mainland Indochina Southwest Monsoon (MSwM) is a crucial climatic phenomenon in Southeast Asia, significantly influencing the climate of countries such as Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand, Laos, and Southwest China. Traditionally, the intensity of the MSwM has been challenging to quantify due to it...
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2025-01-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad8107 |
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| author | Kyaw Than Oo Yinshuo Dong Kazora Jonah |
| author_facet | Kyaw Than Oo Yinshuo Dong Kazora Jonah |
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| description | The mainland Indochina Southwest Monsoon (MSwM) is a crucial climatic phenomenon in Southeast Asia, significantly influencing the climate of countries such as Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand, Laos, and Southwest China. Traditionally, the intensity of the MSwM has been challenging to quantify due to its complex nature. This study introduces a new Southwest Monsoon Intensity Index (SMII), based on sea level pressure (SLP), which offers a more comprehensive understanding of the monsoon’s intraseasonal to interannual variability and its associated climate anomalies. The SMII is designed to overtake the limitations of local indices, which often rely on data from only two costal stations and may lack the resolution necessary for seasonal outlooks or long-term forecast modeling. By considering both south-north and west-east annual dominant pressure field gradients, the SMII provides a more robust measure of monsoon intensity. This large-scale index is influenced by key pressure systems, such as the Tibet Low and the Mascarenes High, and is characterized by the movement of a concentrated north-south rain belt and a quasi-stationary low-level jet. Our analysis reveals strong correlations between the SMII and regional rainfall patterns, particularly during the peak intensity of the summer months. Additionally, significant associations with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices and the eastern Indian Ocean suggest potential teleconnections, which can enhance predictive capabilities. This improved index is crucial for operational climate centers to monitor and predict monsoon behavior effectively, ultimately aiding in the forecasting and managing the MSwM’s socio-economic impacts. |
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| language | English |
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| spelling | doaj-art-30425122255b4b84beeb0460b6beee0f2025-02-01T02:53:54ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Communications2515-76202025-01-017101503810.1088/2515-7620/ad8107The variability and predictability of summer southwest monsoon intensity measurement index across mainland indochina: from local synoptic to large scale perspectivesKyaw Than Oo0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1727-3462Yinshuo Dong1Kazora Jonah2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8019-2804Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing, 210044, People’s Republic of China; Aviation Weather Services, Yangon, MyanmarKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing, 210044, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing, 210044, People’s Republic of China; Rwanda Meteorological Agency, Kigali, RwandaThe mainland Indochina Southwest Monsoon (MSwM) is a crucial climatic phenomenon in Southeast Asia, significantly influencing the climate of countries such as Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand, Laos, and Southwest China. Traditionally, the intensity of the MSwM has been challenging to quantify due to its complex nature. This study introduces a new Southwest Monsoon Intensity Index (SMII), based on sea level pressure (SLP), which offers a more comprehensive understanding of the monsoon’s intraseasonal to interannual variability and its associated climate anomalies. The SMII is designed to overtake the limitations of local indices, which often rely on data from only two costal stations and may lack the resolution necessary for seasonal outlooks or long-term forecast modeling. By considering both south-north and west-east annual dominant pressure field gradients, the SMII provides a more robust measure of monsoon intensity. This large-scale index is influenced by key pressure systems, such as the Tibet Low and the Mascarenes High, and is characterized by the movement of a concentrated north-south rain belt and a quasi-stationary low-level jet. Our analysis reveals strong correlations between the SMII and regional rainfall patterns, particularly during the peak intensity of the summer months. Additionally, significant associations with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices and the eastern Indian Ocean suggest potential teleconnections, which can enhance predictive capabilities. This improved index is crucial for operational climate centers to monitor and predict monsoon behavior effectively, ultimately aiding in the forecasting and managing the MSwM’s socio-economic impacts.https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad8107monsoon intensitySMIIsouthwest monsoonMSwMSLP |
| spellingShingle | Kyaw Than Oo Yinshuo Dong Kazora Jonah The variability and predictability of summer southwest monsoon intensity measurement index across mainland indochina: from local synoptic to large scale perspectives Environmental Research Communications monsoon intensity SMII southwest monsoon MSwM SLP |
| title | The variability and predictability of summer southwest monsoon intensity measurement index across mainland indochina: from local synoptic to large scale perspectives |
| title_full | The variability and predictability of summer southwest monsoon intensity measurement index across mainland indochina: from local synoptic to large scale perspectives |
| title_fullStr | The variability and predictability of summer southwest monsoon intensity measurement index across mainland indochina: from local synoptic to large scale perspectives |
| title_full_unstemmed | The variability and predictability of summer southwest monsoon intensity measurement index across mainland indochina: from local synoptic to large scale perspectives |
| title_short | The variability and predictability of summer southwest monsoon intensity measurement index across mainland indochina: from local synoptic to large scale perspectives |
| title_sort | variability and predictability of summer southwest monsoon intensity measurement index across mainland indochina from local synoptic to large scale perspectives |
| topic | monsoon intensity SMII southwest monsoon MSwM SLP |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad8107 |
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