Modeling of historical and future changes in temperature and precipitation in the Panj River Basin in Central Asia under the CMIP5 RCP and CMIP6 SSP scenarios
Abstract This study examines the complexities of climate modeling, specifically in the Panj River Basin (PRB) in Central Asia, to evaluate the transition from CMIP5 to CMIP6 models. The research aimed to identify differences in historical simulations and future predictions of rainfall and temperatur...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-86366-4 |
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| author | Aminjon Gulakhmadov Xi Chen Nekruz Gulahmadov Muhammmad Rizwan Manuchekhr Gulakhmadov Muhammad Umar Nadeem Moldir Rakhimova Tie Liu |
| author_facet | Aminjon Gulakhmadov Xi Chen Nekruz Gulahmadov Muhammmad Rizwan Manuchekhr Gulakhmadov Muhammad Umar Nadeem Moldir Rakhimova Tie Liu |
| author_sort | Aminjon Gulakhmadov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study examines the complexities of climate modeling, specifically in the Panj River Basin (PRB) in Central Asia, to evaluate the transition from CMIP5 to CMIP6 models. The research aimed to identify differences in historical simulations and future predictions of rainfall and temperature, examining the accuracy of eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) used in both CMIP5 (RCP4.5 and 8.5) and CMIP6 (SSP2–4.5 and 5–8.5). The evaluation metrics demonstrated that the GCMs have a high level of accuracy in reproducing maximum temperature (Tmax) with a correlation coefficient of 0.96. The models also performed well in replicating minimum temperature (Tmin) with a correlation coefficient of 0.94. This suggests that the models have improved modeling capabilities in both CMIPs. The performance of Max Plank Institute (MPI) across all variables in CMIP6 models was exceptional. Within the CMIP5 domain, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (GFDL) demonstrated outstanding skill in reproducing maximum temperature (Tmax) and precipitation (KGE 0.58 and 0.34, respectively), while (Institute for Numerical Mathematics) INMCM excelled in replicating minimum temperature (Tmin) (KGE 0.28). The uncertainty analysis revealed a significant improvement in the CMIP6 precipitation bias bands, resulting in a more precise depiction of diverse climate zones compared to CMIP5. Both CMIPs consistently tended to underestimate Tmax in the Csa zone and overestimate it in the Bwk zone throughout all months. Nevertheless, the CMIP6 models demonstrated a significant decrease in uncertainty, especially in ensemble simulations, suggesting improvements in forecasting PRB climate dynamics. The projections revealed a complex story, as the CMIP6 models predict a relatively small increase in temperature and a simultaneous drop in precipitation. This indicates a trend towards more uniform temperature patterns across different areas. Nevertheless, the precipitation forecasts exhibited increased variability, highlighting the intricate interaction of climate dynamics in the PRB area under the impact of global warming scenarios. Hydrological components in global climate models can be further improved and developed with the theoretical reference provided by this study. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2fb69d06d6f4462c864256be57e5ee36 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| spelling | doaj-art-2fb69d06d6f4462c864256be57e5ee362025-01-26T12:32:37ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-01-0115112110.1038/s41598-025-86366-4Modeling of historical and future changes in temperature and precipitation in the Panj River Basin in Central Asia under the CMIP5 RCP and CMIP6 SSP scenariosAminjon Gulakhmadov0Xi Chen1Nekruz Gulahmadov2Muhammmad Rizwan3Manuchekhr Gulakhmadov4Muhammad Umar Nadeem5Moldir Rakhimova6Tie Liu7State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of SciencesState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of SciencesState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of SciencesDepartment of Civil Engineering, Swedish College of Engineering and TechnologyState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of SciencesClimate, Energy and Water Research Institute, National Agriculture Research CenterSpace Technologies and Remote Sensing Center, Al-Farabi Kazakh National UniversityState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of SciencesAbstract This study examines the complexities of climate modeling, specifically in the Panj River Basin (PRB) in Central Asia, to evaluate the transition from CMIP5 to CMIP6 models. The research aimed to identify differences in historical simulations and future predictions of rainfall and temperature, examining the accuracy of eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) used in both CMIP5 (RCP4.5 and 8.5) and CMIP6 (SSP2–4.5 and 5–8.5). The evaluation metrics demonstrated that the GCMs have a high level of accuracy in reproducing maximum temperature (Tmax) with a correlation coefficient of 0.96. The models also performed well in replicating minimum temperature (Tmin) with a correlation coefficient of 0.94. This suggests that the models have improved modeling capabilities in both CMIPs. The performance of Max Plank Institute (MPI) across all variables in CMIP6 models was exceptional. Within the CMIP5 domain, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (GFDL) demonstrated outstanding skill in reproducing maximum temperature (Tmax) and precipitation (KGE 0.58 and 0.34, respectively), while (Institute for Numerical Mathematics) INMCM excelled in replicating minimum temperature (Tmin) (KGE 0.28). The uncertainty analysis revealed a significant improvement in the CMIP6 precipitation bias bands, resulting in a more precise depiction of diverse climate zones compared to CMIP5. Both CMIPs consistently tended to underestimate Tmax in the Csa zone and overestimate it in the Bwk zone throughout all months. Nevertheless, the CMIP6 models demonstrated a significant decrease in uncertainty, especially in ensemble simulations, suggesting improvements in forecasting PRB climate dynamics. The projections revealed a complex story, as the CMIP6 models predict a relatively small increase in temperature and a simultaneous drop in precipitation. This indicates a trend towards more uniform temperature patterns across different areas. Nevertheless, the precipitation forecasts exhibited increased variability, highlighting the intricate interaction of climate dynamics in the PRB area under the impact of global warming scenarios. Hydrological components in global climate models can be further improved and developed with the theoretical reference provided by this study.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-86366-4CMIPsPrecipitationMaximum TemperatureMinimum TemperaturePanj River Basin |
| spellingShingle | Aminjon Gulakhmadov Xi Chen Nekruz Gulahmadov Muhammmad Rizwan Manuchekhr Gulakhmadov Muhammad Umar Nadeem Moldir Rakhimova Tie Liu Modeling of historical and future changes in temperature and precipitation in the Panj River Basin in Central Asia under the CMIP5 RCP and CMIP6 SSP scenarios Scientific Reports CMIPs Precipitation Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature Panj River Basin |
| title | Modeling of historical and future changes in temperature and precipitation in the Panj River Basin in Central Asia under the CMIP5 RCP and CMIP6 SSP scenarios |
| title_full | Modeling of historical and future changes in temperature and precipitation in the Panj River Basin in Central Asia under the CMIP5 RCP and CMIP6 SSP scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Modeling of historical and future changes in temperature and precipitation in the Panj River Basin in Central Asia under the CMIP5 RCP and CMIP6 SSP scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling of historical and future changes in temperature and precipitation in the Panj River Basin in Central Asia under the CMIP5 RCP and CMIP6 SSP scenarios |
| title_short | Modeling of historical and future changes in temperature and precipitation in the Panj River Basin in Central Asia under the CMIP5 RCP and CMIP6 SSP scenarios |
| title_sort | modeling of historical and future changes in temperature and precipitation in the panj river basin in central asia under the cmip5 rcp and cmip6 ssp scenarios |
| topic | CMIPs Precipitation Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature Panj River Basin |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-86366-4 |
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