Time Series Forecasting Using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing: Application to Abaca Fiber Data
This study utilized the data on abaca fiber production and used Holt-Winters model to forecast the abaca fiber production since the studied variable is characterized by a fairly strong intensity of seasonality. For the construction of forecasts, additive and multiplicative models were used. The most...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Warsaw University of Life Sciences Press
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Zeszyty Naukowe Szkoły Głównej Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego |
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| Online Access: | https://prs.sggw.edu.pl/article/view/4513 |
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| _version_ | 1832540944439705600 |
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| author | Mary Pleños |
| author_facet | Mary Pleños |
| author_sort | Mary Pleños |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study utilized the data on abaca fiber production and used Holt-Winters model to forecast the abaca fiber production since the studied variable is characterized by a fairly strong intensity of seasonality. For the construction of forecasts, additive and multiplicative models were used. The most accurate forecasts were selected on the basis of Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, and Mean Absolute Scaled Error. It was found that the multiplicative method had a higher accuracy, hence it was utilized to forecast the production for the next three years. According to the findings, the anticipated fiber production for 2021-2023 showed an increase up to the second quarter, but then declining afterwards. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2c14131114ae40a1913cf76d64b36dc9 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2081-6960 2544-0659 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Warsaw University of Life Sciences Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Zeszyty Naukowe Szkoły Głównej Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego |
| spelling | doaj-art-2c14131114ae40a1913cf76d64b36dc92025-02-04T10:43:12ZengWarsaw University of Life Sciences PressZeszyty Naukowe Szkoły Głównej Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego2081-69602544-06592022-06-0122210.22630/PRS.2022.22.2.6Time Series Forecasting Using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing: Application to Abaca Fiber DataMary Pleños0Visayas State University, PhilippinesThis study utilized the data on abaca fiber production and used Holt-Winters model to forecast the abaca fiber production since the studied variable is characterized by a fairly strong intensity of seasonality. For the construction of forecasts, additive and multiplicative models were used. The most accurate forecasts were selected on the basis of Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, and Mean Absolute Scaled Error. It was found that the multiplicative method had a higher accuracy, hence it was utilized to forecast the production for the next three years. According to the findings, the anticipated fiber production for 2021-2023 showed an increase up to the second quarter, but then declining afterwards.https://prs.sggw.edu.pl/article/view/4513abaca fibertime seriesforecastingHolt-Winters method |
| spellingShingle | Mary Pleños Time Series Forecasting Using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing: Application to Abaca Fiber Data Zeszyty Naukowe Szkoły Głównej Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego abaca fiber time series forecasting Holt-Winters method |
| title | Time Series Forecasting Using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing: Application to Abaca Fiber Data |
| title_full | Time Series Forecasting Using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing: Application to Abaca Fiber Data |
| title_fullStr | Time Series Forecasting Using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing: Application to Abaca Fiber Data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Time Series Forecasting Using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing: Application to Abaca Fiber Data |
| title_short | Time Series Forecasting Using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing: Application to Abaca Fiber Data |
| title_sort | time series forecasting using holt winters exponential smoothing application to abaca fiber data |
| topic | abaca fiber time series forecasting Holt-Winters method |
| url | https://prs.sggw.edu.pl/article/view/4513 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT maryplenos timeseriesforecastingusingholtwintersexponentialsmoothingapplicationtoabacafiberdata |