Prediction of influenza peaks in Russian cities: Comparing the accuracy of two SEIR models
This paper is dedicated to the application of two types of SEIR models to the influenza outbreak peak prediction in Russian cities. The first one is a continuous SEIR model described by a system of ordinary differential equations. The second one is a discrete model formulated as a set of difference...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
AIMS Press
2018-01-01
|
| Series: | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2018009 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832590033303896064 |
|---|---|
| author | Vasiliy N. Leonenko Sergey V. Ivanov |
| author_facet | Vasiliy N. Leonenko Sergey V. Ivanov |
| author_sort | Vasiliy N. Leonenko |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper is dedicated to the application of two types of SEIR models to the influenza outbreak peak prediction in Russian cities. The first one is a continuous SEIR model described by a system of ordinary differential equations. The second one is a discrete model formulated as a set of difference equations, which was used in the Baroyan-Rvachev modeling framework for the influenza outbreak prediction in the Soviet Union. The outbreak peak day and height predictions were performed by calibrating both models to varied-size samples of long-term data on ARI incidence in Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and Novosibirsk. The accuracy of the modeling predictions on incomplete data was compared with a number of other peak forecasting methods tested on the same dataset. The drawbacks of the described prediction approach and possible ways to overcome them are discussed. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2bdc3dda845d4914855683c676ec9614 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1551-0018 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-2bdc3dda845d4914855683c676ec96142025-01-24T02:40:37ZengAIMS PressMathematical Biosciences and Engineering1551-00182018-01-0115120923210.3934/mbe.2018009Prediction of influenza peaks in Russian cities: Comparing the accuracy of two SEIR modelsVasiliy N. Leonenko0Sergey V. Ivanov1ITMO University, 49 Kronverksky Pr, 197101, St. Petersburg, RussiaITMO University, 49 Kronverksky Pr, 197101, St. Petersburg, RussiaThis paper is dedicated to the application of two types of SEIR models to the influenza outbreak peak prediction in Russian cities. The first one is a continuous SEIR model described by a system of ordinary differential equations. The second one is a discrete model formulated as a set of difference equations, which was used in the Baroyan-Rvachev modeling framework for the influenza outbreak prediction in the Soviet Union. The outbreak peak day and height predictions were performed by calibrating both models to varied-size samples of long-term data on ARI incidence in Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and Novosibirsk. The accuracy of the modeling predictions on incomplete data was compared with a number of other peak forecasting methods tested on the same dataset. The drawbacks of the described prediction approach and possible ways to overcome them are discussed.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2018009mathematical modelingepidemiologyinfluenzaprediction |
| spellingShingle | Vasiliy N. Leonenko Sergey V. Ivanov Prediction of influenza peaks in Russian cities: Comparing the accuracy of two SEIR models Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering mathematical modeling epidemiology influenza prediction |
| title | Prediction of influenza peaks in Russian cities: Comparing the accuracy of two SEIR models |
| title_full | Prediction of influenza peaks in Russian cities: Comparing the accuracy of two SEIR models |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of influenza peaks in Russian cities: Comparing the accuracy of two SEIR models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of influenza peaks in Russian cities: Comparing the accuracy of two SEIR models |
| title_short | Prediction of influenza peaks in Russian cities: Comparing the accuracy of two SEIR models |
| title_sort | prediction of influenza peaks in russian cities comparing the accuracy of two seir models |
| topic | mathematical modeling epidemiology influenza prediction |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2018009 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT vasiliynleonenko predictionofinfluenzapeaksinrussiancitiescomparingtheaccuracyoftwoseirmodels AT sergeyvivanov predictionofinfluenzapeaksinrussiancitiescomparingtheaccuracyoftwoseirmodels |