Pacing Patterns of Half-Marathon Runners: An analysis of ten years of results from Gothenburg Half Marathon

The Gothenburg Half Marathon is one of the world’s largest half marathon races with over 40 000 participants each year. In order to reduce the number of runners risking over-straining, injury, or collapse, we would like to provide runners with advice to appropriately plan their pacing. Many particip...

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Main Authors: Johansson Moa, Atterfors Johan, Lamm Johan
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Sciendo 2023-03-01
Series:International Journal of Computer Science in Sport
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.2478/ijcss-2023-0014
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author Johansson Moa
Atterfors Johan
Lamm Johan
author_facet Johansson Moa
Atterfors Johan
Lamm Johan
author_sort Johansson Moa
collection DOAJ
description The Gothenburg Half Marathon is one of the world’s largest half marathon races with over 40 000 participants each year. In order to reduce the number of runners risking over-straining, injury, or collapse, we would like to provide runners with advice to appropriately plan their pacing. Many participants are older or without extensive training experience and may particularly benefit from such pacing assistance. Our aim is to provide this with the help of machine learning. We first analyze a large publicly available dataset of results from the years 2010 - 2019 (n = 423 496) to identify pacing patterns related to age, sex, ability, and temperature of the race day. These features are then used to train machine learning models for predicting runner’s finish time and to identify which runners are at risk of making severe pacing errors and which ones seem set to pace well. We find that prediction of finish time improves over the current baseline, while identification of pacing patterns correctly identifies over 70% of runners at risk of severe slowdowns, albeit with many false positives.
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spelling doaj-art-2a2ca7f666e340f496b1c9cb440a331f2025-08-20T02:50:26ZengSciendoInternational Journal of Computer Science in Sport1684-47692023-03-0122112413810.2478/ijcss-2023-0014Pacing Patterns of Half-Marathon Runners: An analysis of ten years of results from Gothenburg Half MarathonJohansson Moa0Atterfors Johan1Lamm Johan2Chalmers University of Technology, Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, Gothenburg, SwedenChalmers University of Technology, Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, Gothenburg, SwedenChalmers University of Technology, Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, Gothenburg, SwedenThe Gothenburg Half Marathon is one of the world’s largest half marathon races with over 40 000 participants each year. In order to reduce the number of runners risking over-straining, injury, or collapse, we would like to provide runners with advice to appropriately plan their pacing. Many participants are older or without extensive training experience and may particularly benefit from such pacing assistance. Our aim is to provide this with the help of machine learning. We first analyze a large publicly available dataset of results from the years 2010 - 2019 (n = 423 496) to identify pacing patterns related to age, sex, ability, and temperature of the race day. These features are then used to train machine learning models for predicting runner’s finish time and to identify which runners are at risk of making severe pacing errors and which ones seem set to pace well. We find that prediction of finish time improves over the current baseline, while identification of pacing patterns correctly identifies over 70% of runners at risk of severe slowdowns, albeit with many false positives.https://doi.org/10.2478/ijcss-2023-0014half-marathonrunningpacing patternsresults datamachine learning
spellingShingle Johansson Moa
Atterfors Johan
Lamm Johan
Pacing Patterns of Half-Marathon Runners: An analysis of ten years of results from Gothenburg Half Marathon
International Journal of Computer Science in Sport
half-marathon
running
pacing patterns
results data
machine learning
title Pacing Patterns of Half-Marathon Runners: An analysis of ten years of results from Gothenburg Half Marathon
title_full Pacing Patterns of Half-Marathon Runners: An analysis of ten years of results from Gothenburg Half Marathon
title_fullStr Pacing Patterns of Half-Marathon Runners: An analysis of ten years of results from Gothenburg Half Marathon
title_full_unstemmed Pacing Patterns of Half-Marathon Runners: An analysis of ten years of results from Gothenburg Half Marathon
title_short Pacing Patterns of Half-Marathon Runners: An analysis of ten years of results from Gothenburg Half Marathon
title_sort pacing patterns of half marathon runners an analysis of ten years of results from gothenburg half marathon
topic half-marathon
running
pacing patterns
results data
machine learning
url https://doi.org/10.2478/ijcss-2023-0014
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AT atterforsjohan pacingpatternsofhalfmarathonrunnersananalysisoftenyearsofresultsfromgothenburghalfmarathon
AT lammjohan pacingpatternsofhalfmarathonrunnersananalysisoftenyearsofresultsfromgothenburghalfmarathon