Changes in event soil moisture-temperature coupling can intensify very extreme heat beyond expectations
Abstract The most disastrous heatwaves are very extreme events with return periods of hundreds of years, but traditionally, climate research has focussed on moderate extreme events occurring every couple of years or even several times within a year. Here, we use three Earth System Model large ensemb...
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| Format: | Article |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56109-0 |
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| author | Douglas Maraun Reinhard Schiemann Albert Ossó Martin Jury |
| author_facet | Douglas Maraun Reinhard Schiemann Albert Ossó Martin Jury |
| author_sort | Douglas Maraun |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The most disastrous heatwaves are very extreme events with return periods of hundreds of years, but traditionally, climate research has focussed on moderate extreme events occurring every couple of years or even several times within a year. Here, we use three Earth System Model large ensembles to assess whether very extreme heat events respond differently to global warming than moderate extreme events. We find that the warming signal of very extreme heat can be amplified or dampened substantially compared to moderate extremes. This modulation is detectable already in mid-century projections. In the mid-latitudes, it can be explained by changes in event soil moisture-temperature coupling during the hottest day of the year. The changes depend on the interplay of present soil moisture and coupling during heat events as well as projected precipitation changes. This mechanism is robust across models, albeit with large spatial uncertainties. Our findings are highly relevant for climate risk assessments and adaptation planning. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-29e587d2d47f4a8a86234074e85455fb |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-29e587d2d47f4a8a86234074e85455fb2025-01-19T12:30:46ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-01-0116111010.1038/s41467-025-56109-0Changes in event soil moisture-temperature coupling can intensify very extreme heat beyond expectationsDouglas Maraun0Reinhard Schiemann1Albert Ossó2Martin Jury3Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of GrazNational Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of ReadingWegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of GrazWegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of GrazAbstract The most disastrous heatwaves are very extreme events with return periods of hundreds of years, but traditionally, climate research has focussed on moderate extreme events occurring every couple of years or even several times within a year. Here, we use three Earth System Model large ensembles to assess whether very extreme heat events respond differently to global warming than moderate extreme events. We find that the warming signal of very extreme heat can be amplified or dampened substantially compared to moderate extremes. This modulation is detectable already in mid-century projections. In the mid-latitudes, it can be explained by changes in event soil moisture-temperature coupling during the hottest day of the year. The changes depend on the interplay of present soil moisture and coupling during heat events as well as projected precipitation changes. This mechanism is robust across models, albeit with large spatial uncertainties. Our findings are highly relevant for climate risk assessments and adaptation planning.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56109-0 |
| spellingShingle | Douglas Maraun Reinhard Schiemann Albert Ossó Martin Jury Changes in event soil moisture-temperature coupling can intensify very extreme heat beyond expectations Nature Communications |
| title | Changes in event soil moisture-temperature coupling can intensify very extreme heat beyond expectations |
| title_full | Changes in event soil moisture-temperature coupling can intensify very extreme heat beyond expectations |
| title_fullStr | Changes in event soil moisture-temperature coupling can intensify very extreme heat beyond expectations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Changes in event soil moisture-temperature coupling can intensify very extreme heat beyond expectations |
| title_short | Changes in event soil moisture-temperature coupling can intensify very extreme heat beyond expectations |
| title_sort | changes in event soil moisture temperature coupling can intensify very extreme heat beyond expectations |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56109-0 |
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