Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany
Abstract The authors model the evolution of the number of confi rmed cases of COVID-19 in Germany. Their theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four physical states: healthy, sick, recovered or asymptomatic infected, and dead. Their quantitative solution matches the numb...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | deu |
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Sciendo
2020-04-01
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| Series: | Wirtschaftsdienst |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s10273-020-2631-5 |
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| _version_ | 1832572328376008704 |
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| author | Jean Roch Donsimoni René Glawion Bodo Plachter Klaus Wälde |
| author_facet | Jean Roch Donsimoni René Glawion Bodo Plachter Klaus Wälde |
| author_sort | Jean Roch Donsimoni |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The authors model the evolution of the number of confi rmed cases of COVID-19 in Germany. Their theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four physical states: healthy, sick, recovered or asymptomatic infected, and dead. Their quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals based on the most recent fi gures with the share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. They employ this framework to study the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. They also study the impact of public regulations. For all scenarios, they report the expected end of the COVID-19 epidemic. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-29cd14c409614f0c9ac0bdcfaa84d857 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0043-6275 1613-978X |
| language | deu |
| publishDate | 2020-04-01 |
| publisher | Sciendo |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Wirtschaftsdienst |
| spelling | doaj-art-29cd14c409614f0c9ac0bdcfaa84d8572025-02-02T10:38:25ZdeuSciendoWirtschaftsdienst0043-62751613-978X2020-04-01100427227610.1007/s10273-020-2631-5Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for GermanyJean Roch Donsimoni0René Glawion1Bodo Plachter2Klaus Wälde3FB Rechts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität MainzFakultät für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Universität HamburgInstitut für Virologie, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität MainzFB Rechts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität MainzAbstract The authors model the evolution of the number of confi rmed cases of COVID-19 in Germany. Their theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four physical states: healthy, sick, recovered or asymptomatic infected, and dead. Their quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals based on the most recent fi gures with the share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. They employ this framework to study the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. They also study the impact of public regulations. For all scenarios, they report the expected end of the COVID-19 epidemic.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10273-020-2631-5 |
| spellingShingle | Jean Roch Donsimoni René Glawion Bodo Plachter Klaus Wälde Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany Wirtschaftsdienst |
| title | Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany |
| title_full | Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany |
| title_fullStr | Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany |
| title_short | Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany |
| title_sort | projecting the spread of covid 19 for germany |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/s10273-020-2631-5 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jeanrochdonsimoni projectingthespreadofcovid19forgermany AT reneglawion projectingthespreadofcovid19forgermany AT bodoplachter projectingthespreadofcovid19forgermany AT klauswalde projectingthespreadofcovid19forgermany |