Mathematical analysis of Lassa fever epidemic with real data
In this work, we discuss a lethal disease known as Lassa Fever through mathematical modeling. Seven dimensional mathematical model is considered as the system of ordinary differential equations. First, we compute the equilibrium point in which no disease exists then, after finding the reproduction n...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Alexandria Engineering Journal |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016824012729 |
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| author | Adnan Aslam Takasar Hussain Muhammad Ozair Arfah Hafeez Wedad Albalawi Mohammed Zakarya Nadir Omer |
| author_facet | Adnan Aslam Takasar Hussain Muhammad Ozair Arfah Hafeez Wedad Albalawi Mohammed Zakarya Nadir Omer |
| author_sort | Adnan Aslam |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this work, we discuss a lethal disease known as Lassa Fever through mathematical modeling. Seven dimensional mathematical model is considered as the system of ordinary differential equations. First, we compute the equilibrium point in which no disease exists then, after finding the reproduction number, both types of stabilities, local and global, of this equilibrium point is discussed. Endemic equilibrium is calculated and it is noted that stability of infection free equilibrium point is replaced by local stability of endemic equilibrium when basic reproduction number exceeds unity, so bifurcation occurs. The parameters involved in the problem are estimated through the model calibration with actual number of Lassa Fever patients appeared in Nigeria from January 2021 to 11th week of 2022. The crucial factors are pointed out which involves substantially in spreading the disease. Furthermore, control policies are designed and it is shown that how much the applied control measures may be effective in reducing the disease from the community. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-288296078c894b0ab258ae048204a1f9 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1110-0168 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Alexandria Engineering Journal |
| spelling | doaj-art-288296078c894b0ab258ae048204a1f92025-01-29T05:00:13ZengElsevierAlexandria Engineering Journal1110-01682025-01-01112672687Mathematical analysis of Lassa fever epidemic with real dataAdnan Aslam0Takasar Hussain1Muhammad Ozair2Arfah Hafeez3Wedad Albalawi4Mohammed Zakarya5Nadir Omer6Department of Humanities and Sciences, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad, PakistanDepartment of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Attock, PakistanDepartment of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Attock, Pakistan; Corresponding author.Department of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Attock, PakistanDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, College of Science, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, P.O. Box 84428, Riyadh 11671, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Mathematics, College of Science, King Khalid University, P.O. Box 9004, Abha 61413, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Information Systems, College of Computing and Information Technology, University of Bisha, Bisha 61922, Saudi ArabiaIn this work, we discuss a lethal disease known as Lassa Fever through mathematical modeling. Seven dimensional mathematical model is considered as the system of ordinary differential equations. First, we compute the equilibrium point in which no disease exists then, after finding the reproduction number, both types of stabilities, local and global, of this equilibrium point is discussed. Endemic equilibrium is calculated and it is noted that stability of infection free equilibrium point is replaced by local stability of endemic equilibrium when basic reproduction number exceeds unity, so bifurcation occurs. The parameters involved in the problem are estimated through the model calibration with actual number of Lassa Fever patients appeared in Nigeria from January 2021 to 11th week of 2022. The crucial factors are pointed out which involves substantially in spreading the disease. Furthermore, control policies are designed and it is shown that how much the applied control measures may be effective in reducing the disease from the community.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016824012729Mathematical modelQuarantinedStabilitySensitivityParameter estimationOptimal control |
| spellingShingle | Adnan Aslam Takasar Hussain Muhammad Ozair Arfah Hafeez Wedad Albalawi Mohammed Zakarya Nadir Omer Mathematical analysis of Lassa fever epidemic with real data Alexandria Engineering Journal Mathematical model Quarantined Stability Sensitivity Parameter estimation Optimal control |
| title | Mathematical analysis of Lassa fever epidemic with real data |
| title_full | Mathematical analysis of Lassa fever epidemic with real data |
| title_fullStr | Mathematical analysis of Lassa fever epidemic with real data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical analysis of Lassa fever epidemic with real data |
| title_short | Mathematical analysis of Lassa fever epidemic with real data |
| title_sort | mathematical analysis of lassa fever epidemic with real data |
| topic | Mathematical model Quarantined Stability Sensitivity Parameter estimation Optimal control |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016824012729 |
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