Assessing and predicting Bojiang lake area and LULC changes from 2000 to 2045
Study region: This study focuses on the Bojiang Lake Basin in Erdos, China, covering an area of 744.56 km2. Study focus: While the global significance of lake ecosystems is well established, few studies have investigated the long-term dynamics of Bojiang Lake, particularly the interplay between huma...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825000400 |
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| author | Muhammad Naeem Yongqiang Zhang Xiaoqiang Tian Ping Miao Congcong Li Zhenwu Xu Longhao Wang Faisal Mumtaz Zixuan Tang Shaoyang He |
| author_facet | Muhammad Naeem Yongqiang Zhang Xiaoqiang Tian Ping Miao Congcong Li Zhenwu Xu Longhao Wang Faisal Mumtaz Zixuan Tang Shaoyang He |
| author_sort | Muhammad Naeem |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: This study focuses on the Bojiang Lake Basin in Erdos, China, covering an area of 744.56 km2. Study focus: While the global significance of lake ecosystems is well established, few studies have investigated the long-term dynamics of Bojiang Lake, particularly the interplay between human activities and climate change. This study assesses lake area fluctuations and land use/land cover changes in the Bojiang Lake Basin from 2000 to 2023 and provides projections for 2024–2045 using the CA-ANN model. New hydrological insights for the region: From 2000–2011, the lake’s surface area decreased by approximately 80 %, shrinking from 9.78 km2 to 1.92 km2. Between 2012 and 2023, the lake area recovered by 340 %, expanding to 8.49 km2, primarily due to increased precipitation and improved water management practices. Projections for 2024–2045 suggest further hydrological changes, with the lake area expected to increase by 42.67 %, reaching 12.17 km2 by 2045. Additionally, vegetation cover is expected to rise by 1.97 %, while barren land will decrease by 3.10 %. However, built-up areas are predicted to grow by 47.73 %, reflecting ongoing urban expansion. These findings emphasize the need for integrated land and water management strategies to balance urban growth with environmental conservation. Sustainable planning is crucial for mitigating the impacts of urbanization and climate change, ensuring the long-term ecological stability of the Bojiang Lake Basin. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-26e9da770f82476c83aba648a12dc27a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj-art-26e9da770f82476c83aba648a12dc27a2025-02-05T04:32:06ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-04-0158102216Assessing and predicting Bojiang lake area and LULC changes from 2000 to 2045Muhammad Naeem0Yongqiang Zhang1Xiaoqiang Tian2Ping Miao3Congcong Li4Zhenwu Xu5Longhao Wang6Faisal Mumtaz7Zixuan Tang8Shaoyang He9Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; Corresponding author.Ordos Water Conservancy Bureau, Inner Mongolia, Ordos 017000, ChinaOrdos Water Conservancy Bureau, Inner Mongolia, Ordos 017000, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaUniversity of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Sciences, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaStudy region: This study focuses on the Bojiang Lake Basin in Erdos, China, covering an area of 744.56 km2. Study focus: While the global significance of lake ecosystems is well established, few studies have investigated the long-term dynamics of Bojiang Lake, particularly the interplay between human activities and climate change. This study assesses lake area fluctuations and land use/land cover changes in the Bojiang Lake Basin from 2000 to 2023 and provides projections for 2024–2045 using the CA-ANN model. New hydrological insights for the region: From 2000–2011, the lake’s surface area decreased by approximately 80 %, shrinking from 9.78 km2 to 1.92 km2. Between 2012 and 2023, the lake area recovered by 340 %, expanding to 8.49 km2, primarily due to increased precipitation and improved water management practices. Projections for 2024–2045 suggest further hydrological changes, with the lake area expected to increase by 42.67 %, reaching 12.17 km2 by 2045. Additionally, vegetation cover is expected to rise by 1.97 %, while barren land will decrease by 3.10 %. However, built-up areas are predicted to grow by 47.73 %, reflecting ongoing urban expansion. These findings emphasize the need for integrated land and water management strategies to balance urban growth with environmental conservation. Sustainable planning is crucial for mitigating the impacts of urbanization and climate change, ensuring the long-term ecological stability of the Bojiang Lake Basin.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825000400Machine LearningCA-ANN ModelLake changesLand Use and Land Cover (LULC) ChangesClimate ChangeWater management |
| spellingShingle | Muhammad Naeem Yongqiang Zhang Xiaoqiang Tian Ping Miao Congcong Li Zhenwu Xu Longhao Wang Faisal Mumtaz Zixuan Tang Shaoyang He Assessing and predicting Bojiang lake area and LULC changes from 2000 to 2045 Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Machine Learning CA-ANN Model Lake changes Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Changes Climate Change Water management |
| title | Assessing and predicting Bojiang lake area and LULC changes from 2000 to 2045 |
| title_full | Assessing and predicting Bojiang lake area and LULC changes from 2000 to 2045 |
| title_fullStr | Assessing and predicting Bojiang lake area and LULC changes from 2000 to 2045 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing and predicting Bojiang lake area and LULC changes from 2000 to 2045 |
| title_short | Assessing and predicting Bojiang lake area and LULC changes from 2000 to 2045 |
| title_sort | assessing and predicting bojiang lake area and lulc changes from 2000 to 2045 |
| topic | Machine Learning CA-ANN Model Lake changes Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Changes Climate Change Water management |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825000400 |
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