Understanding the local-level variations in seasonality of human respiratory syncytial virus infection: a systematic analysis
Abstract Background While previous reports characterised global and regional variations in RSV seasonality, less is known about local variations in RSV seasonal characteristics. This study aimed to understand the local-level variations in RSV seasonality and to explore the role of geographical, mete...
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2025-01-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-025-03888-4 |
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| author | Sheng Ye Shuyu Deng Yumeng Miao David Torres-Fernandez Quique Bassat Xin Wang You Li |
| author_facet | Sheng Ye Shuyu Deng Yumeng Miao David Torres-Fernandez Quique Bassat Xin Wang You Li |
| author_sort | Sheng Ye |
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| description | Abstract Background While previous reports characterised global and regional variations in RSV seasonality, less is known about local variations in RSV seasonal characteristics. This study aimed to understand the local-level variations in RSV seasonality and to explore the role of geographical, meteorological, and socio-demographic factors in explaining these variations. Methods We conducted a systematic literature review to identify published studies reporting data on local-level RSV season onset, offset, or duration for at least two local sites. In addition, we included three datasets of RSV activity from Japan, Spain, and Scotland with available site-specific data. RSV season onset, offset, and duration were defined using the annual cumulative proportion method. We estimated between-site variations within a region using the earliest onset, the earliest offset, and the shortest duration of RSV season of that region as the references and synthesised the variations across regions by a multi-level mixed-effects meta-analysis. Using the three datasets from Japan, Spain and Scotland, we applied linear regression models with clustered standard errors to explore the association of geographical, meteorological, and socio-demographic factors with the season onset and offset, respectively. Results We included 7 published studies identified from the systematic literature search. With the additional 3 datasets, these data sources covered 888,447 RSV-positive cases from 101 local study sites during 1995 to 2020. Local-level variations in RSV season within a region were estimated to be 6 weeks (41 days, 95% CI: 25–57) for season onset, 5 weeks (32 days, 13–50) for season offset, and 6 weeks (40 days, 20–59) for season duration, with substantial differences across years. Multiple factors, such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, annual household income, population size, latitude, and longitude, could jointly explain 66% to 84% and 35% to 49% of the variations in season onset and offset, respectively, although their individual effects varied by individual regions. Conclusions Local-level variations in RSV season onset could be as much as 6 weeks, which could be influenced by meteorological, geographical, and socio-demographic factors. The reported variations in this study could have important implications for local-level healthcare resources planning and immunisation strategy. Trial registration PROSPERO CRD42023482432. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-25f98fe8be084a3eb7b7310ab072b60b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1741-7015 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Medicine |
| spelling | doaj-art-25f98fe8be084a3eb7b7310ab072b60b2025-02-02T12:28:11ZengBMCBMC Medicine1741-70152025-01-0123111110.1186/s12916-025-03888-4Understanding the local-level variations in seasonality of human respiratory syncytial virus infection: a systematic analysisSheng Ye0Shuyu Deng1Yumeng Miao2David Torres-Fernandez3Quique Bassat4Xin Wang5You Li6Department of Epidemiology, National Vaccine Innovation Platform, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical UniversityDepartment of Epidemiology, National Vaccine Innovation Platform, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical UniversityDepartment of Epidemiology, National Vaccine Innovation Platform, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical UniversityISGlobalISGlobalDepartment of Biostatistics, National Vaccine Innovation Platform, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical UniversityDepartment of Epidemiology, National Vaccine Innovation Platform, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical UniversityAbstract Background While previous reports characterised global and regional variations in RSV seasonality, less is known about local variations in RSV seasonal characteristics. This study aimed to understand the local-level variations in RSV seasonality and to explore the role of geographical, meteorological, and socio-demographic factors in explaining these variations. Methods We conducted a systematic literature review to identify published studies reporting data on local-level RSV season onset, offset, or duration for at least two local sites. In addition, we included three datasets of RSV activity from Japan, Spain, and Scotland with available site-specific data. RSV season onset, offset, and duration were defined using the annual cumulative proportion method. We estimated between-site variations within a region using the earliest onset, the earliest offset, and the shortest duration of RSV season of that region as the references and synthesised the variations across regions by a multi-level mixed-effects meta-analysis. Using the three datasets from Japan, Spain and Scotland, we applied linear regression models with clustered standard errors to explore the association of geographical, meteorological, and socio-demographic factors with the season onset and offset, respectively. Results We included 7 published studies identified from the systematic literature search. With the additional 3 datasets, these data sources covered 888,447 RSV-positive cases from 101 local study sites during 1995 to 2020. Local-level variations in RSV season within a region were estimated to be 6 weeks (41 days, 95% CI: 25–57) for season onset, 5 weeks (32 days, 13–50) for season offset, and 6 weeks (40 days, 20–59) for season duration, with substantial differences across years. Multiple factors, such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, annual household income, population size, latitude, and longitude, could jointly explain 66% to 84% and 35% to 49% of the variations in season onset and offset, respectively, although their individual effects varied by individual regions. Conclusions Local-level variations in RSV season onset could be as much as 6 weeks, which could be influenced by meteorological, geographical, and socio-demographic factors. The reported variations in this study could have important implications for local-level healthcare resources planning and immunisation strategy. Trial registration PROSPERO CRD42023482432.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-025-03888-4Respiratory syncytial virusSeasonalityMeteorological factorsSocio-demographic factors |
| spellingShingle | Sheng Ye Shuyu Deng Yumeng Miao David Torres-Fernandez Quique Bassat Xin Wang You Li Understanding the local-level variations in seasonality of human respiratory syncytial virus infection: a systematic analysis BMC Medicine Respiratory syncytial virus Seasonality Meteorological factors Socio-demographic factors |
| title | Understanding the local-level variations in seasonality of human respiratory syncytial virus infection: a systematic analysis |
| title_full | Understanding the local-level variations in seasonality of human respiratory syncytial virus infection: a systematic analysis |
| title_fullStr | Understanding the local-level variations in seasonality of human respiratory syncytial virus infection: a systematic analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Understanding the local-level variations in seasonality of human respiratory syncytial virus infection: a systematic analysis |
| title_short | Understanding the local-level variations in seasonality of human respiratory syncytial virus infection: a systematic analysis |
| title_sort | understanding the local level variations in seasonality of human respiratory syncytial virus infection a systematic analysis |
| topic | Respiratory syncytial virus Seasonality Meteorological factors Socio-demographic factors |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-025-03888-4 |
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