Forecasting tourist in-flow in South East Asia: A case of Singapore
This study attempts to forecast tourist inflow in South East Asia and choses Singapore as a case. For Singapore, tourism is one of the major sources of foreign exchange earnings since it has no natural resources to support its economy. Therefore, forecasting of tourist arrivals in the country be...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
University of Algarve, ESGHT/CINTURS
2016-01-01
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| Series: | Tourism & Management Studies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/718/pdf_10 |
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| Summary: | This study attempts to forecast tourist inflow in South East Asia and
choses Singapore as a case. For Singapore, tourism is one of the major
sources of foreign exchange earnings since it has no natural resources
to support its economy. Therefore, forecasting of tourist arrivals in the
country becomes very important for the reason that the forecasting
may help tourism related service industries (e.g. airlines, hotels,
shopping malls, transporters and catering services, etc.) to plan and
prepare their resources and activities in an optimal way. In this paper,
seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA)
methodology was considered for making monthly predictions on
tourist arrival in Singapore. The best model for forecasting is found out
to be (1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 and monthly forecasting were obtained for two
years in future. Further, various statistical tests (e.g. Dickey Fuller,
KPSS, HEGY, Ljung-Box, Box-Pierce etc.) were applied on the time
series for adequacy of best model to fit, residual autocorrelation
analysis and for the accuracy of the prediction. |
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| ISSN: | 2182-8466 |