Study on predictive models for COVID-19 in Cuba
<p><strong>Foundation:</strong> on the pandemic caused by the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, it is important to estimate the growth of infested cases and deaths of the Cuban population.<br /><strong>Objective:</strong> to obtain predictions for the peak of confirmed...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Spanish |
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Centro Provincial de Información de Ciencias Médicas. Cienfuegos
2020-05-01
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| Series: | Medisur |
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| Online Access: | http://medisur.sld.cu/index.php/medisur/article/view/4703 |
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| author | Juan Felipe Medina Mendieta Manuel Eduardo Cortés Cortés Manuel Cortés Iglesias Annia del Carmen Pérez Fernández Marianelis Manzano Cabrera |
| author_facet | Juan Felipe Medina Mendieta Manuel Eduardo Cortés Cortés Manuel Cortés Iglesias Annia del Carmen Pérez Fernández Marianelis Manzano Cabrera |
| author_sort | Juan Felipe Medina Mendieta |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p><strong>Foundation:</strong> on the pandemic caused by the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, it is important to estimate the growth of infested cases and deaths of the Cuban population.<br /><strong>Objective:</strong> to obtain predictions for the peak of confirmed and deceased cases in Cuba by COVID-19, using statistical and computer tools.<br /><strong>Methods:</strong> the least squares method was used to obtain the parameters using linear (MCL) and nonlinear (MCNL) models. Logistic and exponential models, such as the logistic growth curve, used to model population growth (Gompertz growth models), were applied to the growth prediction of infected cases and / or deaths, respectively.<br /><strong>Results:</strong> there is an adequacy of the presented models with respect to the predicted and the real values which allow their reliability for the predictions made for Cuba.<br /><strong>Conclusions:</strong> statistical prediction models obtained give very significant results for the COVID-19 pandemic study in Cuba.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-215d22100adc4d639ed6438dd1c131ec |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1727-897X |
| language | Spanish |
| publishDate | 2020-05-01 |
| publisher | Centro Provincial de Información de Ciencias Médicas. Cienfuegos |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Medisur |
| spelling | doaj-art-215d22100adc4d639ed6438dd1c131ec2025-01-30T21:28:55ZspaCentro Provincial de Información de Ciencias Médicas. CienfuegosMedisur1727-897X2020-05-011834314421840Study on predictive models for COVID-19 in CubaJuan Felipe Medina Mendieta0Manuel Eduardo Cortés Cortés1Manuel Cortés Iglesias2Annia del Carmen Pérez Fernández3Marianelis Manzano Cabrera4Universidad Carlos Rafael Rodríguez. Cienfuegos.Universidad de Cienfuegos Carlos Rafael RodríguezUniversidad de Cienfuegos Carlos Rafael RodríguezUniversidad de Cienfuegos Carlos Rafael RodríguezPoder Popular Provincial de Cienfuegos<p><strong>Foundation:</strong> on the pandemic caused by the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, it is important to estimate the growth of infested cases and deaths of the Cuban population.<br /><strong>Objective:</strong> to obtain predictions for the peak of confirmed and deceased cases in Cuba by COVID-19, using statistical and computer tools.<br /><strong>Methods:</strong> the least squares method was used to obtain the parameters using linear (MCL) and nonlinear (MCNL) models. Logistic and exponential models, such as the logistic growth curve, used to model population growth (Gompertz growth models), were applied to the growth prediction of infected cases and / or deaths, respectively.<br /><strong>Results:</strong> there is an adequacy of the presented models with respect to the predicted and the real values which allow their reliability for the predictions made for Cuba.<br /><strong>Conclusions:</strong> statistical prediction models obtained give very significant results for the COVID-19 pandemic study in Cuba.</p>http://medisur.sld.cu/index.php/medisur/article/view/4703infecciones por coronavirusprediccióncuba |
| spellingShingle | Juan Felipe Medina Mendieta Manuel Eduardo Cortés Cortés Manuel Cortés Iglesias Annia del Carmen Pérez Fernández Marianelis Manzano Cabrera Study on predictive models for COVID-19 in Cuba Medisur infecciones por coronavirus predicción cuba |
| title | Study on predictive models for COVID-19 in Cuba |
| title_full | Study on predictive models for COVID-19 in Cuba |
| title_fullStr | Study on predictive models for COVID-19 in Cuba |
| title_full_unstemmed | Study on predictive models for COVID-19 in Cuba |
| title_short | Study on predictive models for COVID-19 in Cuba |
| title_sort | study on predictive models for covid 19 in cuba |
| topic | infecciones por coronavirus predicción cuba |
| url | http://medisur.sld.cu/index.php/medisur/article/view/4703 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT juanfelipemedinamendieta studyonpredictivemodelsforcovid19incuba AT manueleduardocortescortes studyonpredictivemodelsforcovid19incuba AT manuelcortesiglesias studyonpredictivemodelsforcovid19incuba AT anniadelcarmenperezfernandez studyonpredictivemodelsforcovid19incuba AT marianelismanzanocabrera studyonpredictivemodelsforcovid19incuba |