How Extreme Were Daily Global Temperatures in 2023 and Early 2024?
Abstract Global temperatures were exceptionally high in 2023/24. Every month from June 2023 to June 2024 set a new record, and September shattered the previous record by 0.5°C. The 2023 annual average approached 1.5°C above pre‐industrial levels. This results from both long‐term warming and internal...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2024-10-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110531 |
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| Summary: | Abstract Global temperatures were exceptionally high in 2023/24. Every month from June 2023 to June 2024 set a new record, and September shattered the previous record by 0.5°C. The 2023 annual average approached 1.5°C above pre‐industrial levels. This results from both long‐term warming and internal variability, with the occurrence of an El Niño episode. However the amplitude of the 2023/24 anomalies was remarkable and surprised the scientific community. Here we analyze the rarity of 2023/24 global temperatures from a climate perspective. We show that a ‘normal’ year 2023 would have roughly equaled the previous annual record, and that the most extreme events of 2023/24 rank among the most extreme since 1940. Our analysis suggests that the 2023/24 event can be reconciled with the long‐term trend and an intense, but not implausible, peak of internal variability. |
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| ISSN: | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |